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#10837 - 09/29/00 11:08 PM Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,705
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
<img align=right height=202 width=230 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.gif">Tropical Storm Keith is continuing to organize and strengthen, and now
moving toward the northwest at five miles an hour. With maximum
sustained winds of 50 miles an hour with higher gusts, he is now
located about 210 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, expected
to veer to a north-northwesterly course.


Keith could become a hurricane tomorrow, Saturday. That prediction
indicates more rapid development than its earlier "some time this
weekend" forecast. Central pressure remains fairly steady at 995
millibars, or 29.38 inches.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right height=174 width=191 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.jpg">

Personally, I'd guess a hurricane before lunch, and, if really
pressed, might bet on it not long after daybreak, And if anyone who
looked sober bet on one before sunup, I wouldn't take him up on it.


Satellite images also show the storm beginning to drag soggy Pacific
air over Nicaragua and Honduras and trigger heavy rains in those
countries.


If Keith holds anything like his predicted or even present course,
Belize is safe from a center strike. He's far enough north now that
he'd have to turn just about due west to smack us. Of course, northern
Belize, including Ambergris Caye, will be closer to the center track
than the rest of the country. But being in the southwest quadarant by
the time winds start to get really frisky is not so bad a prospect,
relieving us of high tides and battering waves, even the relatively
little ones that make it over the reef. They'll be outbound instead.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


Tropical Storm Joyce, looking a wee bit more organized, continues to
approach the Caribbean, but if she doesn't veer northward, she's
doomed. A continued due-west course puts her center aground in
Venezuela. We'll have to keep alert to see that her low pressure
center doesn't subsequently try to go back in business over the Cradle
of Mitch north of Panama, but her beeline across the Atlantic is
ending up falling just that vital bit short of a bullseye passage into
the Caribbean.


Hurricane Isaac is well off to flee the lizards, appearing, subject to
Weather Service confirmation, to already be turning east of north out
in the broad north Atlantic.


And the tropical wave that had emerged from Africa during the weak has
been eaten by a large winged sea serpent, seen emerging from a termite
nest and eyeing events in our hemisphere at http://www.weather.com/weather/sat/tropsat_720x486.html


John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

#10838 - 09/29/00 11:14 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
shit. I'm supposed to fly in Saturday at like 2 PM. Oh man.... I don't even know if I should bother with the first leg into Miami at this point.

#10839 - 09/29/00 11:21 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,705
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
Hell yes go, keith is heading enough north to hopefully just scoot by. check the maps on the first fri night posting...

#10840 - 09/29/00 11:41 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
Are you there now? Is it raining hard?

Hmmmmm. I definately want to go. But I'd postpone till next weekend if I had to. I'm only staying till Tuesday and want to get some diving in Sun & Monday. Wort case would be if it stalled and just rained heavily over the airport so I can't get in I guess.

#10841 - 09/29/00 11:51 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,705
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
I'll find out the current weather, I am not there..

gimme an hour or so...
should slide on north...

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

#10842 - 09/29/00 11:53 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  

**DONOTDELETE**
Unregistered
Anonymous
I am arriving on AC sunday afternoon for a week of diving. What do you think should I cancel the trip?

#10843 - 09/29/00 11:57 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
deacon, I'd probably wait till last minute before you decide to cancel. Unless of course the storm is going to affect the visability underwater for an extended time.

I'm thinking of cancellling mine mostly because it's a short trip and I'm supposed to fly into Belize the same time this could become hurricane force.

#10844 - 09/29/00 11:59 PM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,705
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
check the top map, it should slide north...
if so, no affect on the water visibility...

too soon to tell for sure, just bloomed up today, might be gone tomorrow by this time...

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

#10845 - 09/30/00 12:06 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
the weather channel has regular updates (10 min before the hr) on the area down there.

the whole area looks pretty turbulent. I don't know how much sun I'd be getting this weekend.

#10846 - 09/30/00 12:21 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
I dont know. I just checked. I'm supposed to land 11:30 sat morning. What are the odds of that flight landing on time..... Then I still need to get to AC.

I close my eyes and picture myself sitting in Miami International all day saturday rather than sipping a cocktail on some beach in AC.

I'd like to be positive, but I was stuck for 24 hrs in Chicago only a couple of weeks ago because of a little rain and lightning.

#10847 - 09/30/00 12:31 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,705
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
will know more tomorrow AM. not much help to you now. the weather now is nothing bad at all, no waves, no rain.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

#10848 - 09/30/00 12:38 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Sep 2000
Posts: 18
finsterbaby Offline
 
finsterbaby  Offline
hey thanks for your help.

Weather Channel shows hurricane warnings just north of Belize to coincide with the map link you gave before.

I've got about 4 hrs before I need to leave for the airport. I'll decide last minute.

#10849 - 09/30/00 12:47 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  

**DONOTDELETE**
Unregistered
Anonymous
I apprecate your insights, I guess I will just have to ait until Sat night to make a decision. What a bummer!

#10850 - 09/30/00 01:07 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 434
Belize Mama Offline
 
Belize Mama  Offline
Deacon, I say go ahead and go. We were there several years ago when a small hurricane passed by coming up from Nicaragua and it wasn't bad at all. It happened about mid-way through our trip, We were back in the water the first full day after. No problems, mon.
Have fun! [Linked Image]

#10851 - 09/30/00 01:19 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
<img align=right height=324 width=400 src="http://weather.yahoo.com/graphics/satellite/central_america.jpg">
Here in San Pedro right now it's very calm, 5-10 mph from the north, slight slop waves on the beach, no rain so far.

[This message has been edited by Jesse (edited 09-30-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Jesse (edited 09-30-2000).]

#10852 - 09/30/00 01:32 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
000
WTNT35 KNHC 300604
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...RAINFALL
THREAT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL MEXICO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO.
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

KEITH IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH... 5 KM/HR...BUT A
SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 97 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT KEITH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEITH
WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

#10853 - 09/30/00 05:29 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
000
WTNT35 KNHC 300857
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH STRENGTHENING AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL MEXICO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA AND FURTHER
SOUTH TO BELIZE LATER TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

KEITH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. IF THE
CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES LONGER THAN EXPECTED...THEN HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
AND FOR BELIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
KEITH WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

#10854 - 09/30/00 05:32 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
Here in San Pedro it has started raining, breeze picking up a little from the north, and waves on the beach are increasng in size.

#10855 - 09/30/00 07:18 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 455
Grace Offline
.
Grace  Offline
Is Barefoot going to write another song? Hope everyone stays safe!


Grace DeVita
#10856 - 09/30/00 08:04 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 156
Marvel Offline
 
Marvel  Offline
It's 6:03 am here! How are you all doing in San Pedro? [Linked Image]
It looks very nasty from the pictures on the Web.

#10857 - 09/30/00 08:05 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
000
WTNT35 KNHC 301131
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

KEITH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
KEITH WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE
WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.2 N... 86.4 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

#10858 - 09/30/00 08:09 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
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SP Daily  Offline
Weather here in San Pedro not too bad so far. Gusty wind about 15mph, surge on the beach, light rain off and on, sky overcast but not threatening. Colder than usual.

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