<img align=right width=230 hspace=8 vspace=8 height=196 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30sat.jpg">At 11:00 A.M. Central Standard (Belize) Time, conditions on Ambergris
Caye slightly modified, turning consistent with approach of the
center, or with strengthening and intensifying, of Hurricane Mitch.

Sustained fine rain characteristic of the outer main body of a
hurricane, as distinguished from earlier intermittent heavy droplets
that typically come from squalls one generates on its periphery, began
and continued to fall. If the center is approaching, the rain will
become heavier and the drops larger.

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<img align=right width=214 height=189 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="//AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/strike_9-30_11a.gif">
Also, the wind direction shifted just slightly to come more from the
northwest than the west. With the center east of us, that would be
consistent with being approached by the main body, rather than
remaining in wind patterns generated by weather being attracted from
outside the hurricane.

The changes, however, are not fully established, still subtle and
intermittent, but becoming slowly, steadily more pronounced. They are
consistent with satellite imagery showing Keith becoming generally
tighter and better organized.


Island people this morning are buying briskly at the grocery stores --
not hoarding, just making sure they won't need to go out in fouler
weather later today or tonight. Still, the aggregate stock-up is
brisk, one merchant this morning saying he wished every day was like
this one.

If he feels that way by this time tomorrow, we'll all be happy.

John Lankford
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Tracking Info For Hurricane Keith 

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
21 GMT 09/28/00  16.1N 82.9W     30       1004     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/29/00  16.2N 83.2W     30       1004     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/29/00  16.2N 83.2W     35       1004     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/29/00  17.2N 84.3W     35       1004     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/29/00  17.6N 85.2W     50        995     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/30/00  18.1N 86.3W     70        985     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/30/00  18.0N 86.6W     80        984     Category 1 Hurricane


Hurricane Keith Discussion Number 8
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 30, 2000

Satellite imagery indicate that Keith is much better organized with an excellent outflow and banding features. It appears to be developing an eye while T-numbers support hurricane status at this time. A reconnaissance plane will measure the intensity of Keith in a few hours. Further strengthening is indicated.

Keith has been meandering or drifting westward. Track guidance including global models...with the exception of nogaps and its derived GFDL which takes Keith westward...suggest that Keith should begin to move slowly toward the northwest and north. On this track...Keith should cross The Eastern Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Gulf of Mexico by 72 hours.

However...the memory of Hurricane Mitch is still vivid when all models took the hurricane northward and the hurricane moved south and southwest not far from this area.

Belize should be ready to upgrade the tropical storm warning to hurricane warning if the westward trend continues.

Forecaster Avila

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forecast positions and max winds
initial     30/1500z 18.0n  86.6w    70 kts
12hr vt     01/0000z 18.9n  87.1w    80 kts
24hr vt     01/1200z 20.0n  87.5w    85 kts
36hr vt     02/0000z 20.8n  87.8w    65 kts...inland
48hr vt     02/1200z 21.5n  88.0w    55 kts...inland
72hr vt     03/1200z 22.5n  88.0w    65 kts

Hurricane Keith Intermediate Advisory Number 8a
Statement as of 2:00 pm EDT on September 30, 2000

...Keith nearly stationary...reconnaissance plane in the area shortly...

a hurricane warning is in effect for the east coast of Yucatan from Cabo catoche southward to belize city. The hurricane warning could be extended southward later today.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the north coast of Yucatan from west of Cabo catoche to Progreso.

All interests in the northwestern caribbean should monitor the Progress of this system.

At 2 pm EDT...1800z...the center of hurricane Keith was located near latitude 18.0 north...longitude 86.6 west or about 120 miles ...190 km...East-Southeast of chetumal Mexico.

Keith has been nearly stationary during the past few hours but is expected to begin a northwestward drift later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr... with higher gusts to the east of the center. Further strengthening is indicated. A reconnaissance plane will be in the area shortly.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb...28.99 inches.

Bands of heavy rains are already affecting portions of eastern Yucatan...belize and northern Honduras. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along with large battering waves...are likely over portions of the hurricane warning area.

Repeating the 2 pm EDT position...18.0 n... 86.6 w. Movement... nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure...982 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm EDT.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]