The noontime Weather Service advisory has Keith stationary. Hurricane
WARNINGS go from Belize City to Cabo Catoche, Mexico now.

Keith is located 120 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, right
on the Belize border. Three hours ago, it was 118 miles. Of course,
storm centers will wobble a bit, and aren't always capable of the most
precise determination unless an eye forms. Pressure is dropping, very
slowly. So, call it stationary.

I think the persistent high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has corked
the Yucatan Chute, a scenario I'm always fuming about. There are
indications it's pushing on down here, weakly, but perhaps enough to
nudge Keith as well as block him. If you look at the 1500 GMT image
on the Intellicast satellite sequence, you see in that frame, a flat
hat on Keith.

This is a case where we don't want the storm to go away. We want him
to hit us now. If he goes away he goes out to sea where he can
intensify more, and could make a Mitch out of himself, or something in
between. Right now, he's still a sunbather, reported max sustained
winds at 80.

But he's beginning to throw wave and tide action. No longer flat calm,
the ocean outside the reef is beginning to beat on it a bit. Our
strong west wind is a help, but if Keith gets to intensifying, it
won't be enough to relieve us of some wave damage to the piers and the
east beach.

Another thing I tend to dislike is a storm intensifying at night. We
did that one last night from tropical storm to hurricane. With half
this day gone and Keith still equivocating, we could do it again
tonight from Cat 1 hurricane somewhere up the scale. If things get
nasty, it's no fun to poke around in the dark, wet and windblown. It
can be done, with care, but it's no fun. At least, unlike mainland
areas hit and flooded at times, we don't have the problem of all those
snakes in the water. That was always a problem in New Orleans when it
happened especially in the dark, and you can't talk any sense to'em,

In Corozal, the rain has started.
John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]