Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2001

Chante continues to struggle.

Chantal is in bad shape at the present time. The center...such as it is...appears to be located well to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection. Since the system is so poorly organized... it is difficult to forecast strengthening. Nevertheless the global models continue to insist that the upper-level winds will become more favorable over Chantal during the next couple of days. Therefore the official forecast shows strengthening...commencing tomorrow...but not as much as indicated by the ships or GFDL guidance.

Estimated initial motion...290/14...is rather uncertain due to the poor definition of the center. The 12z runs of the global models show prominent 500 ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the latter part of the forecast period...and the latest objective track guidance suggests a more southern track than earlier model runs. Therefore...the official forecast is shifted a little to the south compared to the previous one. This is fairly close to the latest AVN and U.K. Met office model forecasts.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-19-2001).]

What does that mean??? If it's headed further south, does that make it a higher probability it will hit AC head-on? I'm confused!

they edged the probable track south from the previous track from three hours ago.

that actually does put AC closer to head on for this moment, but if the track continues to drift south, as it has for several reporting periods, the track may drift on south and take the northern islands out of it. But also, right now the wind speeds are in the 70 mph range, and if that doesn't pick up going ashore wouldn'[t be so traumatic.

but thats radical conjecture. all we can do is watch.

they adjust those tracks every three hours, and they are just a guess from several models. some forecasters like to explain WHY they change a track, instead of just changing it.

here's the track:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200104_strike.html

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-19-2001).]