they edged the probable track south from the previous track from three hours ago.
that actually does put AC closer to head on for this moment, but if the track continues to drift south, as it has for several reporting periods, the track may drift on south and take the northern islands out of it. But also, right now the wind speeds are in the 70 mph range, and if that doesn't pick up going ashore wouldn'[t be so traumatic.
but thats radical conjecture. all we can do is watch.
they adjust those tracks every three hours, and they are just a guess from several models. some forecasters like to explain WHY they change a track, instead of just changing it.
here's the track: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200104_strike.html
[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-19-2001).]