In case anybody was worried about being snuck-upon by some other storm
while Chantal has our attention, no need.

The Nexxxtification in the Atlantic is docile unto lacking. The only
little cloudmess that attracts the eye right now is 'way north of
anyplace from which is could threaten the western Caribbean, and it's
not impressing anybody anyway.

All of these storms seem to have their distinct meteorologies, the
storm equivalent of a personality. Chantal's known to weatherwatchers
as the storm that would not squat nor clear the pot, development wise.

Her central pressure is up to 1008 millibars. She nearly be a sunny
afternoon. Her maximum sustained winds are around 65, down from
earlier 70. Her convection is over here and her circulation is over
there, and from time to time a rival circulation has tried to develop
around the convection and a rival convection has tried to develop
around the circulation as is happening this morning.

Northwest of her, there's a fast-moving airstream up high, running
from southwest to northeast, and she's headed into it. Earlier, it was
expected to go away so she could strengthen. It didn't., The airstream
shears off the tops of her highest clouds and inhibits her dynamics,
what has been snuffing her of late and could snuff her some more. But
that stream could fade away, too.

To her east is a baby ghost, a bit of anticyclonic clockwise-rotating
high pressure. Forecasters don't know that it will,but it could build
in and improve her circulation by friction, boosting her to minimial
hurricane strength just before she hits the coast.

Her forward speed is 15 miles an hour, direction west-northwest,
distance from Chetumal, Mexico (ergo also Corazal, Belize, more or
less) about 200 miles. That puts her center onto north Ambergris Caye
in about 11 hours, or around 7 pm Belize time.

Precision is not possible because of her disorganization. The Flyin'
Fools and their cohorts expressly explain they are locating the center
in a particular place, whereas it could be somewhere else, because
they put it there the last update andhate to have it seem to jump

But she won't fizzle.

All that understood, here's her projected track, about the same as it
has been, except that now, if she survives crossing the Yucatan, she's
expected to bend west and hit Mexico rather than curl around on a more
northern bearing and threaten the Gringolian Gulf Coast.

Tropical storm force winds -- that's 39 mph and up -- extend mainly
northeastward of the problematical center about 200 miles, meaning
Belize and the Cayes won't get the heaviest winds.

A big old blustery drippy mess -- three to five inches of rain
predicted -- that may get a little stronger, maybe a little weaker,
before she goes away and quits bothering us.

John Lankford