At 0550 Belize time, Weather.com TV in Gringolia is reporting Chantal
virtually stalled on the east side of the Yucatan peninsula, making
forward progress of only three miles an hour. Whereas prior
predictions of her entry into the Bay of Campeche were Tuesday
afternoon or evening, now they say Wednesday morning.
Eight to twelve inches of rain may be conservative, and the general
ruckus at sea may roil and elevate that for a while.
"Stalled", said the 3 AM BZ advisory. "nearly stationary along the
Belize-Mexico border this morning", it says, finally putting Belize
first (ahem!)
Max sustained winds still 65 at that time, pressure 1003. The only
significant sign of weakening is that tropical storm force winds now
extend only 175 rather than 200 miles from the center, mainly north
and east. One-to-two-foot tidal surge still expected to be generated.
Two things not yet said about that tidal surge issue. One, local
geometry can exacerbate it. It's an average. Two, local conditions, as
in being under a high cloud tower with its own wind and rain dynamics,
notably microbursts caused by air dragged along as water falls a long,
long way -- not to mention local tornadoes touching down or not,
waterspouts, horizontal tornadoes -- can generate ferocious local
winds in spots. When the central dynamic is weak or weakening, as
we're seeing, every little jackleg vortex can go in business for
itself.
But remaining stationary and remaining just-strong-enough, the center
just keeps sucking water toward it. The attentive will recall that
Keith, last year, flooded Honduras and Nicaragua badly before it was
any more than a tropical depression number, pulling water all the way
out of the Pacific and across the isthmus.
LATEST UPDATE JUST POSTED-- some relief -- west-northwest at 6 miles
an hour -- max sustained winds now all the way down to 60 wow --
central pressure climbing mightily from 1003 to 1004 wow wow -- storm
winds still out 175 miles -- storm surge flooding estimate BACK UP to
two to three feet gargle -- after all this duration, Chantal's center
of circulation is just 35 miles west-southwest of Chetumal slog .
Just prepare to get rained on and tidally scoured, is all.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.html Picture:
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html Hogwarts! She's got us surrounded, with most of the heavy rain right
on the doorstep.
Hang on - - -
John Lankford
AmbergrisCaye.com 
