A northern fairy tale begins, "Once upon a time."
A southern fairy tale begins, "Ya'll ain't gon' BELIEVE this s---!"
YAGBTS: What caused and is calling the drownpour on north Ambergris
Caye and thereabouts is the formation of another eye right over you
Looking back, remember we've been talking about rival centers of
circulation fighting it out in weak Chantal. She's been full of energy
and not able to organize, so the lead has been passing back and forth,
making the Hurricane Center's designation of center and position
arbitrary and based on continuity and a desire for coherence as much
Well, when the winning center got ashore last night, it weakened a
little bit and the trailing central dynamic, the one I thought for a
while was going to win out yesterday, formed up. That's the one only
35 miles from Chetumal now. The Hurricane Center conceded and
relocated the storm back east around 5 this morning. Marty just
pointed out the "discussion" advisory. The "discussion" advisories
have consisted mainly of hand-wringing. The public advisories being
passed along have been deciisons about best-call-overall.
Credit Marty. He's been the second-eye formation advocate for the past
12 hours, and I've been the "Naw, surely not!" skeptic, though forced
to acknowledge that dynamic in the southeast that formed up last
Now, stand by to weep. Marty's keen antennae raise the possibility
that in all that water coming in behind Chantal, she can do this again
and again and again for a while.
I'll try to stay skeptical.
This has not been a good "probability" storm. It's been more of a "If
it might, it does storm."