Well, looking at the positive view, its an extremely small hurricane now down to 15 mile radius and moving further south... the highest surge is right at or just northside of the center, so the surge here should be considerably less... I hope.
We opened the store at 6:15AM and sold lots of plywood until it got slow around 8:15 and the workers all bailed for the mainland. I'm still in the store but no ones coming at all now. Big feeder bands out over the sea but no rain or wind at all.
Planes flying hot & heavy since 6AM.
from a friend
JERRY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE IT LATER TODAY...
recon reports just before 12z indicated that Iris strengthened to a category four hurricane...with a flight level wind of 134 kt only 4 nm northeast of the center. With such a tight core...it was impossible to get a dropsonde in the center of the eye...so the central pressure is estimated. The flight-level wind corresponds to 120 kt at the surface using the standard 90 percent reduction. The aircraft also reported triple concentric eyewalls with radii of 3/9/18 nm. Satellite imagery since 12z suggests that the innermost eyewall has probably collapsed...and the winds may have come down a bit. With two more eyewalls so close...I do not expect any rapid decrease in strength prior to landfall.
The initial motion is 260/17...the same as before. Most of the guidance suggests a track just south of west.
...Small but extremely dangerous Iris continues westward...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Yucatan from felipe carrillo Puerto southward to the border with Belize.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Caribbean coasts of Belize...Guatemala...and Honduras from the border with Guatemala eastward to Limon.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Mexican east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to the Belize border.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Iris was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 225 miles...365 km...east of Belize City Belize.
Iris is moving toward the west near 20 mph ...32 km/hr. A general west or slightly south of west motion is expected prior to landfall...bringing hurricane conditions to portions of Belize...Guatemala...northern Honduras and the adjacent islands later today and tonight. On the projected track...the center is expected to make landfall late tonight or early Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. Iris is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall.
Iris is an extremely small hurricane...with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 13-18 feet above normal tide levels... along with dangerous large battering waves...are likely near and to the north of where the center of the hurricane crosses the coast.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches...locally higher...are likely along the path of Iris. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...17.0 N... 84.9 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.