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MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12709
11/01/01 09:08 AM
11/01/01 09:08 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 115
Cozumel, Q.Roo., Mexico
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Rocio Offline OP
 
Rocio  Offline OP
R
TS Michelle is still tracking well east of Belizean waters, current track has Michelle moving slowly north toward the western end of Cuba. As of 8:OO AM CST the closest point of approach(CPOA)to Belize will be 270+ miles east of Belize City midday Friday.

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12710
11/02/01 11:04 AM
11/02/01 11:04 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,218
oregon, spr
Marty Offline

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Marty  Offline
check out this tracking map. never seen one cover so much ground. this thing is basically stalled.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200115_strike.html

just got back. haven't seen anything on the storm since before it was an 'official' depression. amazed its moved so slow. I travelled a lot of that area the last 2 weeks. its quite cloudy most places. nice and sunny in western cuba yesterday, lightly cloudy in Havana.

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12711
11/02/01 11:09 AM
11/02/01 11:09 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,218
oregon, spr
Marty Offline

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Marty  Offline
Belize has had a hurricane watch out since yesterday at noon. Belizeans go check your local police station. Because the Weather Channel doesn't mention it doesn't mean Belize is not on alert.

Cheers,
Wendy Auxillou

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12712
11/02/01 01:10 PM
11/02/01 01:10 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 159
Altadena CA
C
Christopher Offline
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Christopher  Offline
C
Can't tell you how bummed I am to have to come back in here on this thread. This hurricane is a monster in size like Mitch with exactly the same type of non movement which makes it more dangerous if one is in the slow path. Right now it's forming a much more definate EYE....I certainly don't like that. But just remember, according to the powers in Washington...THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING!....right!


chris considine
Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12713
11/02/01 03:36 PM
11/02/01 03:36 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 97
Sanibel, Florida, US
T
Tradewind Offline
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Tradewind  Offline
T
Hello Belize from SW Florida. Well now I know how you felt with Iris. I am now the one in the path of a formidable hurricane! Michelle has dropped over 12 millbars of pressure in an hour and a half. She has jumped 15mph in winds too. This is called, in meteorological terms, "bombing". Just like Iris in the hot NW Caribbean off Belize.
This storm is more dangerous because it has a bigger wind field with the same strength.

My word to Belize is to ignore hysteria over people telling of another Mitch. Although this storm is pretending to linger like Mitch, the steering currents are doing what they predicted and inching her north towards Cuba, then us...

Our local weatherman was the first to mention a quick right turn into the Florida Straits and out into the Atlantic 2 days ago. He is still confident in that. I myself live on a 25 mile sand island, ten miles out in the Gulf of Mexico. Our hieght of land is only 10 feet. Needless to say we are quite concerned seeing how she is exploding right now. The Weather Service has just informed us that Michelle has met 5 of 5 criteria for rapid development into major hurricance. I will discuss tentative evacuation plans with my elderly parents today.

Say hello to Lan Sluder. I was discussing Iris with him before...

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12714
11/02/01 04:32 PM
11/02/01 04:32 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 115
Cozumel, Q.Roo., Mexico
R
Rocio Offline OP
 
Rocio  Offline OP
R
Heads up Tradewind, this one is looking straight at you...., I sitting in Cancun looking souteast, alot of cloud cover, but not real heavy. We had a couple of heavy showers last night b-4 9:00 CST, nothing since, just easterly wind. There is only limited ferry servive between Playa del Carmen and Cozumel, all small ferries have be moved to safe harbor.
Good luck and God Bless. Rocio

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12715
11/02/01 05:31 PM
11/02/01 05:31 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 159
Altadena CA
C
Christopher Offline
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Christopher  Offline
C
the best site of GEOS 8 now has a sister feed starting TODAY!
Notice: November 2, 2001 We have GOES-12 available. This data is being projected into our GOES-8 projection and may be
sporadic, black images, missing areas etc. The data will only be available while the data feed continues, and is only accessible
from the web interface and not from the build your own interface. The most notable difference is that the native resolution of the water vapor channel on GOES-12 is 4 km resolution instead of 8 km. This data feed should be considered
EXPERIMENTAL.


chris considine
Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12716
11/02/01 07:30 PM
11/02/01 07:30 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,218
oregon, spr
Marty Offline

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Marty  Offline
Why North East -- and not slam bang into Belize and/or points South?


The answer lies in that very important Url Mike H. posted --


go look at:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/


That dark red band is your hottest water.


Now -- revelation time --


Hurricanes "eat" hot water -- they "feed" on Hot water!!


Hurricanes also want to travel North! Always!! Why?? Come to that later.


They follow the "feeding" North.


Now go to Navy and down load the latest tracking map.

http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home


Now super impose that track image over the northern end of the red band.


Notice anything??


I notice that the tracking prediction follows the red band!!


Why??


OK -- hurricanes like to run the edge of cold and hot. The greater the
tmeperature difference between hot and cold -- the bigger/faster they can
grow.


In physics we call that difference -- "Delta T"


That is the measured difference between hot and cold points.


The greater the delta T the greater the amount of energy that can be
transmitted -- always!


Hurricanes like to grow -- so they follow the trail of the highest delta T!!


That is exactly what Michelle is doing right now -- eating its way through
delta T seas.


Another revelation -- water gets colder the more North you go!!


so if you have a band of cold besides a band of hot -- perfect for air
disturbances.


Hurricanes go North in "normal" conditions following along the edge of the
famous gulf stream -- which goes right past Nova Scotia -- almost to
NewFoundland -- then turns towards England.


Sound familiar?? Is if you track "all" the hurricanes.


So here is the latest info.


Nothing unusual is happening to stop Michelle from being a normal hurricane
and head North east.


You know what?? We may just slip through this one in one piece -- yet!!


Keep watching those sea temps -- and hope a big Norther does not come down
to make "unusual" conditions!!


Get along little doggie --
Peter singfield

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12717
11/02/01 11:17 PM
11/02/01 11:17 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 97
Sanibel, Florida, US
T
Tradewind Offline
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Tradewind  Offline
T
Pressure down to 957 millibars and dropping. Wind pushing into major hurricane category 3 intensity as I write. Expected windspeed 125mph by morning. Warning for Cuba's Isle of Youth (Isla De Juventude) for 24 hours approach. Storm expected to intensify further. Another Andrew.

Re: MICHELLE UPDATE, CPOA #12718
11/03/01 02:38 AM
11/03/01 02:38 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 97
Sanibel, Florida, US
T
Tradewind Offline
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Tradewind  Offline
T
Big Zigs and Zags West/East driving me nuts!

[This message has been edited by Tradewind (edited 11-03-2001).]

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