The Caribbean disturbance is coming together and has become a tropical storm.

I'm not certain a classic westward Belize track will pan-out. There's a trough in front of it that could lift it up towards us in Florida.

It has strong form right now...

My daughter arrived in Belize yesterday and is planning on being in San Pedro through July 14. Should I be concerned about the weather there??? (still acting like a mom even though she's an adult.)

Very difficult right now. All the weather services are saying it will pull north. However it is moving quickly and could be skewing their estimates. Because it is moving quickly it is unlikely to become very powerful.

I don't pretend to have special meteorology credentials and fear these questions. But I like to give my best answer and I'd say the odds are low right now for a Belize strike. The way it is going right now, the worst a direct strike would be would be a mild hurricane of 70-80mph which is not a serious threat.

The storm is showing some signs of mild strengthening in unfavorable conditions. This behavior sometimes indicates a storm with potential once it enters better conditions. The track is also further south than predicted only 8 hours ago.

She should be all right. The time to tell is tomorrow...

Thanks! Keeping my fingers crossed for all of you!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

...CLAUDETTE PASSING SOUTH OF JAMAICA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN
AND CAYMAN BRAC.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...305 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
...260 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLAUDETTE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM JAMAICA SHOWS
RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

That's my mother in laws name!!! LOL..believe me-she's going elsewhere!!! C