AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Disturbance 99L

This current Caribbean wave should be watched.

Appears to be coming together and low-tracking towards Yucatan.

I'm sure Jesse will post the notices...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N
SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE
SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS EARLIER AND
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED E OF THE WAVE NEAR 19N74W. THIS AREA
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

ABNT20 KNHC 281511 TWO AT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM JAMAICA
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING... IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING... AND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea, southwest of Jamaica, is now strengthening. The amount of deep convection has increased considerably since this morning, and this system now appears well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 19 by tomorrow. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area Thursday morning at 8 am EDT.

Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days. Upper level outflow channels have opened to the northeast and southwest, and a small upper-level anticyclone is over the system, helping ventilate the air pushed to the upper atmosphere by the strong updrafts in the storm's deep convection.

The disturbance is moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. None of the computer forecast models develop the system, so their tracks of the disturbance are dubious. The GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba on Saturday. The BAMM model takes the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems more reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.
JeffMasters

October 1, 2005 / 12:05AM CDT

RAPIDLY FORMING CYCLONE IN CARIBBEAN?

key lines:
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The bottom line is that even if we finally have formed a depression, it will not likely be able to reach Tropical storm intensity before moving across the Yucatan
=========================

The tropical low, strong wave, almost depression -- is now either a very large area of showers and gusty thunderstorms, or is
undergoing rapid development and intensification.

The reason for my late update was the sudden development of a very strong, circular area of thunderstorms exactly where the
low level circulation center was located. In the past 3 hours, the buoy located near 20N/85W has shown a dramatic and steady
increase in winds and seas -- and is now reporting SUSTAINED ESE winds of 25mph, with gusts to 32mph, and seas have
increased to 7 feet. Based on the latest satellite imagery, the center appears to be located near 19N/85.8W or 120NM SE of
Cozumel.

Further away from the center and burst of intense convection, there are widely scattered regions of showers and
thunderstorms, with are large area of thunderstorms already over the Yucatan itself. The latest shear chart from 03Z (10PM
CDT) depicts shear values of under 5Kts over the area where a the Tropical low - and possibly depression, is located. In
addition to the very broad area of anticyclonic flow aloft, there are now 2 centers of anticyclonic flow. One over the low
level circulation, and one over the Yucatan. The entire area of showers and thunderstorms continues moving generally WNW at
about 6KTs, and the latest model data moves the system across the Yucatan during the weekend, and will be in the Gulf
on Monday. Most of the guidance shows the system eventually moving across the Gulf and reaching the coast upper Mexico
Gulf coast, south of Texas by Wednesday.

The bottom line is that even if we finally have formed a depression, it will not likely be able to reach Tropical storm intensity
before moving across the Yucatan, and once in the Gulf, will find itself surrounded by an abundance of very dry air that
dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has scheduled a RECON for tomorrow afternoon, but based on the current
imagery and surface reports, they may move that up to an earlier time (around 11AM).