from a friend in Xaibe http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Just checked that Url out again -- things are already going "strange"
Each tracking projection is shifting more to the "west" --
no longer going to mash through Western Cuba -- now aimed straight for the
middle of the channel -- and coming out through with 95 knot winds -- with
an upwards leading intensification curve.
Also -- NOLA needs get worried -- finger is pointing right at them -- "now" --
but what does finger pointing mean at this early time???
Shades of Keith -- Iris and Mitch!!
And if so -- just expect that tracking to keep shifting to the west --
Cancun -- Tulum -- Chetumal -- then we.
This is the exact same tracking picture we saw for Iris -- well -- let me
go check in the archives to be sure.
OK -- Oct 7 2001
I'm looking at a picture of Iris -- about the same intensity as soon to be
born William -- sitting in the exact same position.
But -- one difference -- it was tracked then by Navy to hit Cancun -- not
the channel -- and the tracking just kept bending south -- until it rammed
mind you -- early tracking had it passing to the east of Jamaica and going
to Cancun -- yet they kept that tracking to Cancun even after it passed
well to the west of Jamaica
After it got further past Jamaica -- heading ever more due west -- they
changed the tracking to hitting corozal -- and from that point on -- Orange
Walk -- Belize City -- and more South -- as it got really closer!!
Also -- Iris was a traditional storm -- that is it came from way down the
channel -- all the way up. Wilma is birthing right in front of us.
Wish I had more than slow pokey dial up -- I could send you a large graphic
file containing all.
Hmm -- just looking over my files on isador -- remember she??
Sept 19 2002 Izzy was in the same place as birthing Wilma is now -- Izzy
went up through the Gap as predicted by historical tracking computer
simulation -- then out in the gulf -- turned backwards due to El Norde and
hit Merida a terrific blow.
What is interesting to observe -- here we are -- Oct 16 -- and the sea
surface temps are orders warmer -- hotter -- than they were Sept 19 2002!!
(just comparing the two)
No global warming -- eh??
Now -- let's go look at my Archives on Keith
Keith was "birthing" in the exact same spot as Wilma is now Sept 27 2002 --
it was not a made storm coming up the tubes from the wind wards.
It did a lazy dance to the west of jamaica just like wilma is starting now.
It moves so slowly West -- was half way between Jamaica and Belize City By
Sept 29 -- but still not a hurricane.
All the time it was predicted to head North -- and it even started to -- a
Sept 30 it was much closer to Belize -- even with San Pedro -- and an eye
forming -- winds rapidly increasing. Ignition was achieved!
Oct 1 2000 Keith was in the same place -- not so far off-shore SP -- and
turned into a monster!! About 150 miles due west of SP!!
Still -- no one in Belize believed it would hit "here" -- as American TV
was all showing tracking based on "historical" models showing Keith heading
One has to understand Belizeans -- they have but one God -- the boob-tube
-- and God was telling them Keith would go North.
At that same time I am on record for losing my cool totally telling
Belizeans -- a big El Norde is there -- don't be fool -- get out -- Keith
is going to hit us!!
Everyone humored the fool in Xaibe Village -- nobody paid mind -- nobody
all day Oct 1st Keith defied the great Boob Tube God and started moving
rapidly due west straight to SP!!
Only at the very last minute did Belizeans realize their God has betrayed
And then it was just to late to go anywhere.
However -- during the last part of Oct 1 -- Keith did a big poofer --
bigger than we saw with Katrina hitting NOLA -- but still -- it was a hard
Belizeans really lucked out on that one -- cause if Keith had not poofed a bit--
Ambergis Caye would have been hit even harder than it way!!
As it was -- they survived well -- but Keith got real pokey --
And for two days sat moving over SP and Caye Caulker shaking everyone's
I have the complete graphic series of this event -- by satellite pictures
on my hard drive still!!
The poof factor was incredible -- it went from monster to class one just
before striking --
now here we are -- same kind of storm -- same area -- same El Norde -- and
Belizeans saying -- well -- no problem -- boob tube says 5% chance only.
And our GOB not even suggesting possible evac plans.
Folks -- THIS TIME do not get to comfortable to fast -- eh??
Changes are in process -- and those changes are pointing in our direction
-- not against our direction.
Tomorrow this time -- we will know much better -- for good -- or for worse.
The day after -- we will know more --
Sure -- Wilma can miss us -- at this time -- know one knows.
But give my nerves a break -- stop being so damned complacent about this.
Peel eye big time -- prepare your personal belongings of most value for