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There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. A major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.
However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.
I'll have another update tonight, as conditions warrant.
Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan:
"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."
Jeff Masters
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WTNT34 KNHC 192046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 ...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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CHECK BOLD AREAS
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005
agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The 06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba. There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line. Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the timing...has decreased considerably.
The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892 mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner 5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls... one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the Yucatan...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecaster Franklin
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Joined: Oct 1999
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LOVEfm
WILMA TURNS DEADLY, MOVES CLOSER TO BELIZE
Hurricane Wilma turned into the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded today. Wilma is a Category Five storm with hundred and seventy-five mile-per-hour winds and heavy rains. The storm has already been blamed for killing at least twelve people in the Caribbean. Wilma's central pressure has dropped to eight hundred and eighty-two millibars, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. The strongest storm on record before before today was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, whose central pressure measured eight hundred and eighty-eighty millibars. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. To get the latest on Wilma, Love News spoke a short while ago with Chief Meteorologist Carlos Fuller. Carlos Fuller:
At midday the center of Hurricane Wilma was near 17.5 degrees north latitude and 83.5 degrees west longitude. That position is about three hundred and ten miles due east of Belize City and two hundred and ninety-five miles east of San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. Wilma is weakening slightly, maximum sustained winds have decreased to one hundred and sixty-five miles per hour. However, it is still an intense hurricane of category 5. Hurricane force winds extend outwards fifty miles from the center and tropical storm winds extend outwards a hundred and sixty miles from the center. Wilma is moving towards the west, northwest at seven miles per hour; however, as it is doing that it is wobbling around a small center and hence not moving as rapidly as you would expect. Wilma continues to move as we are expecting and we are expecting an even more turn towards the northwest within the next twenty-four hours. Marian Ali:
This wobbly movement as you were mentioning, was this projected? Carlos Fuller:
Yes, this is on track and it is what we are expecting it to do.
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3 p.m. Hurricane Wilma, Belize Time
They Eye of Wilma has a definite wobble pattern roughly a 25 mile rotational zig zag.
At this hour, the wobble has carried the eye north about 12 miles roughly even with Long Caye, north of St. Georges Caye on that latitude. The Westward movement averaged out, continues to be about ten mph. It is somewhere in the vicinity of Swan Island.
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I think the breakdown of the projected path models does not bode well. What would two days of 160 mph winds do to San Pedro? I grew up in South Florida and rode out many hurricanes but this one could be very,very serious. I hope people do have evacuation in mind if it does not turn north very soon. There was a lot of denial in New Orleans, I was there too long.
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We already had two days of 150 mph winds with Keith....so we have an idea of what it would do thanks....
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from up north.... "Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."
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Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
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WTNT34 KNHC 200235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND. AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN
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