November 21, 2005 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT / SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N
85.5W...OR 85 NM N OF LIMON HONDURAS...AT 21/0300 UTC
(9 P.M. LOCAL TIME) AND MOVING N 2 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

GAMMA IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE STILL OCCASIONALLY FORMING
TO THE N FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W BUT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS BECOMING TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT FUTURE
ORGANIZATION. THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


TODAY’S FORECAST

A TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ALMOST STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING EAST OF BELIZE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
BELIZE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INVADES.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies during today and tonight.
Winds will be northerly to northwesterly at 15 to 20
kts with gusts above 25 Kts. Few periods of light to
moderate rain will develop during the evening hours.
The sea state will rough.

** MARINE OPERATORS and OTHER INTERESTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS**

The outlook is for continuing cloudy and cool weather
on Tuesday.


Northwest & Southwest Caribbean:

T.D. GAMMA HAS BECOME A SKELETON LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS FORMING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
DUE W OF GRAND CAYMAN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
DRAW FROM AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE E.
STRONG NLY WINDS ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA WED
THEN DIFFUSE THU.

Central Caribbean:

A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
17N72W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE AREA E OF
80W AND CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

STRONG EASTERLIES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.

Eastern Caribbean:

A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE HOVERING OVER THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
UP TO 250 NM N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

To heck with tomorrow - what's the weather gonna be like in the 1st 1/2 of December?

Hoo nose?

el shadi nos

November 23, 2005 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT BELIZE.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Partlt cloudy skies today and tonight.
Winds will be northerly to northwesterly at 8 to 15
kts. The sea state will slight

The outlook is for continuing cloudy and cool weather
on Thursday.


Western Caribbean:

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 12N. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
S OF 18N W OF 70W.


LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
SE FROM THE GULF AREA OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W
WITH BROKEN/ OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE
FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
SPREADING W OVER THE WEEKEND.

Central Caribbean:

THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CONTINUING SW ACROSS E JAMAICA
INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.

IT WILL MOVE TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PANAMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THU AND
DIFFUSE FRI. STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THU...THEN WINDS BECOME ELY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS THE ATLC.

A LOW LEVEL 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF T.D. GAMMA...IS
ANALYZED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N77W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING N OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
SWIRL OF LAST NIGHT.

Eastern Caribbean:

LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 67W FROM THE ABC
ISLANDS TO 17N FIRING DISSIPATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM RADIUS OF
15N66W.

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Sunny and fair skies during today and tonight. Winds
will be light and variable or from the north west at
less than 10 kts. The sea state will slight

The outlook is for continuing cloudy and cool weather
on Friday.


Special Features:

TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 39.0W IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 25/0300 UTC MOVING S AT 5 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB.

THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS OR SO...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.


CENTRAL Caribbean:

MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COVERS THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS E OF 63W
WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE WINDWARD AND THE S LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E
HISPANIOLA 16N75W TO OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL PANAMA
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N78W NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W

Western Caribbean:

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LIES ROUGHLY ALONG 13N AND IS BEING
SQUEEZED FROM THE N BY THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS NOW ALONG 72W N OF
30N...STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E
CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SMALL POCKET OF 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE EXTREME SW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 3-5 FT W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

Eastern Caribbean:

FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N68W TO NE
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W AND IS ALSO
SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W.

THE E CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS OR SO...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE BUILDING UP TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL
OVER THE NRN PORTION.

THESE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STROM
DELTA WELL NE OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH
SAT. ANOTHER BATCH OF LARGE NLY SWELLS IS EXPECTED
MOVE INTO THESE WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE.

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BELIZE.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies during today and mainly fair
tonight with mild temperatures. Winds will be east
northeast to east at 8 to 15 kts. The sea state will
slight to light chop.

The outlook is for continuing fair and mild weather on
Sunday.


Special Features:

TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT
26/0300 UTC MOVING S AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED WAS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.

Northwest Caribbean:

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A BROAD RIDGING E/W AS WELL AS
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W SOUTHWARDS TO 11N82W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

Central Caribbean:

TRADES REMAIN STRONG AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SW
N ATLC BUILDS. THIS WILL BRING HIGH SWELLS THOROUGH
ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY TWO SMALL AREAS OF
CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN 45 NM
OF 17N FROM 68.5W-71.5W.



Western Caribbean:

THE DEEPEST AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Eastern Caribbean:

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY.