June 26th, 2006 (6 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the
Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Cloudy to overcast skies still linger over Belize and Western Caribbean
waters. Unstable conditions continue over Central America and the Gulf of
Honduras.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24
hrs:

Skies will continue to be cloudy to overcast with isolated showers; but
sunny breaks will develop during the afternoon.

The highest temperature will be near 84 degrees F after midday.

Winds will be Easterly between 5 to 15Kts.

The sea state will be light chop to choppy. Seas will increase to 3 feet
beyond the reef.

The outlook is for cloudy to overcast skies and widely scattered showers
through Wednesday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs
Cloud
High Overcast
Wind (direction & speed)
West northwest 5 kts.
Tide level
0.49 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 80W.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

THE AREA EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 30N52W-TO- GUADELOUPE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.

TRADES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND REALLY START CRANKING
BY LATE TUE INTO WED. LATEST GFS SHOWS CONDITIONS VERY NEAR GALE FORCE
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND WED. HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR 13 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER JAMAICA ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE DIRECTLY.


...TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...

NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 24N AT THE SOUTHERN
PART OF ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 76.5W AND 78.5W.

LINGERING BUT WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE WATERS IN BETWEEN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE ISLAND OF MAYAGUANA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FOUND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO Grand Bahama ISLAND BETWEEN 73W AND
80W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 29N73W BEYOND 32N77W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HAITI ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW.

June 27th, 2006 (6 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the
Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Cloudy to overcast skies lingering over Belize and Western Caribbean
waters. Unstable conditions continue over Central America and the Gulf of
Honduras.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24
hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies with a few sunny breaks around midday. Showers and
thundershowers will develop tonight and tomorrow.

The highest temperature will be near 84 degrees F after midday.

Winds will be Easterly to northeasterly between 5 to 15Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be less than 1 to 2
feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers through
Thursday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs
Cloud
7/8 Cumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
Variable 3 kts.
Tide level
0.49 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WEST
OF 75W.

A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2326 LAST NIGHT REVEALED WINDS IN THE RANGE NE 25-30
KT PRIMARILY WITHIN ABOUT 120-150 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GFS
FORECASTS WINDS TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT THROUGH SAT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
DO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SEAS...UP TO 15 FT. A SHIP OBSERVED 16 FT
SEAS NEAR 06Z THIS MORNING AND 13 FT AT 00Z LAST NIGHT.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N71W 21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR
13N67W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.

NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
84W AND 87W.

NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA
COAST BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...AND ALL ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING.

...TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
WED MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF LOW
PRES BECOMES PRONOUNCED.

THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 11 FT IN SWELLS E
OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRI/SAT...AND BUILD UP
TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE.

June 28th, 2006 (6 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the
Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Unstable conditions will be slow to improve over Belize and Western
Caribbean waters as a tropical wave moves away to the west.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24
hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies with a few sunny breaks after midday. Showers and
thundershowers will gradually decrease.

The highest temperature will be near 84 degrees F after midday.

Winds will be Easterly to northeasterly between 5 to 15Kts.

The sea state will be light chop to choppy. Seas will be 4 to 6 feet
beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers through Friday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs
Cloud
Overcast Stratus
Wind (direction & speed)
East 8 kts.
Tide level
0.50 m
Precipitation
Moderate Thundershowers

…TROPICAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENT…

THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 54W/55W AND SOUTH OF 15N IS MOVING WEST
15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME…BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
******************************************
Western Caribbean:

THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO 91W/92W...ADDING
SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE EL SALVADOR PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA RIDGE
WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...AND IN WESTERN
PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

A LARGE SWATH OF NE 25 KT WINDS WAS REPORTED LAST NIGHT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME 30 KT WIND SPEEDS MIXED IN MOSTLY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. SIMILAR WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT IS FORECAST FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH THU MORNING THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH THU
NIGHT. WINDS MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS SAT
AND SUN.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N62W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N68W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W...TOWARD THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST.

SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE OCCURRING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS TROUGH ARE
WESTWARD-MOVING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL TO THE E IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR 41W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE E AND W CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS
TO THE N.