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new "invest" on tropical wave #207838
09/02/06 10:29 PM
09/02/06 10:29 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,114
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
this is from the website "weather underground" and is Dr. Jeff Master's weather blog - he's pretty level headed in his predictions
seems like something we should watch.


***********************

NHC declares a new "invest" on tropical wave in Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave surrounded by a cloud of African dust and dry air that I've been commenting on ever since it left the coast of Africa, is now an official threat. NHC has designated this wave "Invest 99L" this morning. The wave is near 15N 61W, right on top of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust, but has slowly been able to pump more moisture into its center each night over the past few days as thunderstorm development kicks up then dies away. The thunderstorm activity has picked up considerably this morning, the first time the disturbance has been able to build thunderstorms during the daytime hours. The disturbance is tracking west at 15 mph into a large upper trough of low pressure over Cuba and Hispaniola that is creating about 10-20 knots of shear over 99L. The trough is expected to weaken and move west over the next few days, potentially creating a low shear environment over most of the Caribbean. This could allow intensification of 99L into a tropical depression by Monday.

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Re: new "invest" on tropical wave #207839
09/03/06 11:13 AM
09/03/06 11:13 AM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 3,281
Virginia
Barbara K Offline
.
Barbara K  Offline
eek

Re: new "invest" on tropical wave #207840
09/03/06 10:04 PM
09/03/06 10:04 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 77,114
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
99L.invest is presently "poofed" but not dead -- and by Tuesday it may be rejuvinated.

it got taken out by high wind shear -- so far!! It would have come right at us.

They were predicting that the wind shear in front of it would go down low -- they were wrong -- it went up instead.

they are still predicting low shear will be happening. If it does -- we'll watch a lil closer


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