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#207854 - 09/25/06 06:49 AM something brewing?  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,850
Diane Campbell Offline
Diane Campbell  Offline
Weather experts - please comment on the big blob that blew up off the coast of Panama and Columbia last night?
Anti-cyclonic flow was noted in NHC's morning report. I'd love to learn that this is merely some much needed rain on the way, but having watched Mitch form up in the same place and about the same time of year, I tend to be concerned whenever something appears there.
Expert opinions please?

#207855 - 09/25/06 08:19 AM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 187
coolbummings Offline
coolbummings  Offline
go to this link for live time view...

Looks big but too early to say? Wilma had also started out in this area am I not correct? Yes, rain would be nice but without the sturm un drang.

whaddaya mean yer all outta Jack's?
#207856 - 09/25/06 08:43 AM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,748
shuffles Offline
shuffles  Offline
Wow....haven't received any emails from them yet, but you're right, looks kind of creepy......

Change your Latitude
#207857 - 09/25/06 12:39 PM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 2,436
Short Offline
Short  Offline
This drawing sums up the situation, guess we now have to wait and see what it's going to do:
[Linked Image]

Live and let live
#207858 - 09/25/06 01:56 PM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,674
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
From my favorite blog site -

Monday, September 25, 2006
Update To This Morning's (Monday) Discussion
I wanted to make a mention about the current area of convection located in the southern Caribbean. This could be something that may need to be watched. I would like to give this area of disturbed weather to persist for another 24 to 48 hours before we should start to be concerned with it. It should be noted that the models are showing a lowering area of barometric pressure across the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week. The NOGAPS model is currently the only model that forecasts tropical storm development from this system. We are about to enter into October when activity shifts back to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so this may be something to keep an eye on.

I will post a full discussion by 8 am EDT Wednesday, however, if the convection in the southern Caribbean persists tomorrow, then I will issue a discussion tomorrow instead.

#207859 - 09/25/06 03:27 PM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 865
San Pedro Daily Offline
San Pedro Daily  Offline
A note from Winston Panton:
As the tempo of the Atlantic Hurricane season slows around late Sep/Oct the developing tropical systems favour the Western Caribbean as source of origin.
The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) becomes more active in this location.. Panama.
Pulses of Low pressure regularly detach from the Zone and move Northward and can act as a center of tropical development.
If this coincides with a Weak Cold Front, or a weak Tropical Wave or both then the stage is set for an area of disturbed weather to develop especially if the sea surface temperature is above 80 degrees F.

#207860 - 09/25/06 06:41 PM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 187
coolbummings Offline
coolbummings  Offline
Which these days is usually the case....higher surface temp degrees that is. Oh well....did look interesting on the sat loop this morning.

whaddaya mean yer all outta Jack's?
#207861 - 09/26/06 08:49 AM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,674
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
nogaps says our chances of a blow will be elevated starting early next week for a period of about 2 weeks.

Just keep an eye out, and do a search on a great hurricane preparation list that Diane wrote a few months ago!

#207862 - 09/26/06 08:55 AM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 3,280
Barbara K Offline
Barbara K  Offline
yes, couldn't believe how high the water temps were last week! Actually uncomfortably hot in some areas. Let's hope this blows by...

#207863 - 09/26/06 11:36 AM Re: something brewing?  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,850
Diane Campbell Offline
Diane Campbell  Offline
Thanks Amanda for reminding me to check the Blog on Crown Weather! Here is that Blong's Tuesday morning update on our little swirly thing - note that it refers to an approaching tropical wave, and see above Winston Panto's commentary (weather's post) on how that can begin to stir things up.


The NOGAPS model has been and is still the most aggressive with this scenario and forecasts a tropical storm to move northward out of the southwest Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to be located near the western tip of Cuba by Sunday. At the current time, the deep convection that was present throughout yesterday has diminished, however, surface analysis indicates that there is a tropical wave approaching this area from the east and this may interact with a vorticity maximum that is now over the southwest Caribbean. This may be is what the models are picking up on to develop and this is a system that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.

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