Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Page 1 of 2 1 2
#207854 09/25/06 06:49 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
OP Offline
Weather experts - please comment on the big blob that blew up off the coast of Panama and Columbia last night?
Anti-cyclonic flow was noted in NHC's morning report. I'd love to learn that this is merely some much needed rain on the way, but having watched Mitch form up in the same place and about the same time of year, I tend to be concerned whenever something appears there.
Expert opinions please?

#207855 09/25/06 08:19 AM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 187
Offline
go to this link for live time view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Looks big but too early to say? Wilma had also started out in this area am I not correct? Yes, rain would be nice but without the sturm un drang.


whaddaya mean yer all outta Jack's?
#207856 09/25/06 08:43 AM
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 1,748
Offline
Wow....haven't received any emails from them yet, but you're right, looks kind of creepy......


Change your Latitude
#207857 09/25/06 12:39 PM
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 2,537
Offline
This drawing sums up the situation, guess we now have to wait and see what it's going to do:
[Linked Image]


Live and let live
#207858 09/25/06 01:56 PM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 7,050
Offline
From my favorite blog site - Crownweather.com

Monday, September 25, 2006
Update To This Morning's (Monday) Discussion
I wanted to make a mention about the current area of convection located in the southern Caribbean. This could be something that may need to be watched. I would like to give this area of disturbed weather to persist for another 24 to 48 hours before we should start to be concerned with it. It should be noted that the models are showing a lowering area of barometric pressure across the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week. The NOGAPS model is currently the only model that forecasts tropical storm development from this system. We are about to enter into October when activity shifts back to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so this may be something to keep an eye on.

I will post a full discussion by 8 am EDT Wednesday, however, if the convection in the southern Caribbean persists tomorrow, then I will issue a discussion tomorrow instead.

#207859 09/25/06 03:27 PM
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 865
Offline
A note from Winston Panton:
As the tempo of the Atlantic Hurricane season slows around late Sep/Oct the developing tropical systems favour the Western Caribbean as source of origin.
The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) becomes more active in this location.. Panama.
Pulses of Low pressure regularly detach from the Zone and move Northward and can act as a center of tropical development.
If this coincides with a Weak Cold Front, or a weak Tropical Wave or both then the stage is set for an area of disturbed weather to develop especially if the sea surface temperature is above 80 degrees F.

#207860 09/25/06 06:41 PM
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 187
Offline
Which these days is usually the case....higher surface temp degrees that is. Oh well....did look interesting on the sat loop this morning.


whaddaya mean yer all outta Jack's?
#207861 09/26/06 08:49 AM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 7,050
Offline
nogaps says our chances of a blow will be elevated starting early next week for a period of about 2 weeks.

Just keep an eye out, and do a search on a great hurricane preparation list that Diane wrote a few months ago!

#207862 09/26/06 08:55 AM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 3,281
Offline
yes, couldn't believe how high the water temps were last week! Actually uncomfortably hot in some areas. Let's hope this blows by...

#207863 09/26/06 11:36 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
OP Offline
Thanks Amanda for reminding me to check the Blog on Crown Weather! Here is that Blong's Tuesday morning update on our little swirly thing - note that it refers to an approaching tropical wave, and see above Winston Panto's commentary (weather's post) on how that can begin to stir things up.

*************

The NOGAPS model has been and is still the most aggressive with this scenario and forecasts a tropical storm to move northward out of the southwest Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to be located near the western tip of Cuba by Sunday. At the current time, the deep convection that was present throughout yesterday has diminished, however, surface analysis indicates that there is a tropical wave approaching this area from the east and this may interact with a vorticity maximum that is now over the southwest Caribbean. This may be is what the models are picking up on to develop and this is a system that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.

Page 1 of 2 1 2

Link Copied to Clipboard
March
S M T W T F S
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 302 guests, and 0 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics79,199
Posts500,011
Members20,460
Most Online7,413
Nov 7th, 2021



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5