if track continues to go exactly west, it will go perhaps right over chetumal. the practical thing is that it is not changing as much as it is predicted. having said that, all the models are convinced that it will turn a little bit more towards the northwest
the weather seems to be getting worse. we have seen some clouds appearing on the horizon, a lot more activity on the reef, the weather in the next coming hours will begin to deteriorate. once it starts to deteriorate it will be very fast. in less than an hour from that point
once the sky clouds over, it will cover totally quickly. then squalls will begin to come it. if two squalls come in, it will then stay bad. in the last few minutes it has started raining and there is thunder
winston says the storm is intensifying, so he is sure it will continue to increase, he knows for a fact that the water outside the reef is very warm to a great depth, so there is 87 degrees to a depth of 100 feet. the average is 82 or less
Lisa D. This is Mary Stephenson. I am in Houston but I spoke with your parents this a.m. when they were still at the Radisson. Tom & Josie were picking them up about 7 and they were driving to Cayo. About an hour ago I spoke with Alisa in Cayo and she was out weeding her garden. There really shouldn't be too much there except some wind and rain. Can't say the same for San Pedro though. Pray for the people there and their (our) homes.
storms do wobble a little, it can wobble 30 miles easily. but the wobble is a lil north, the real track is wnw. movement 21 mph. nothing that might slow it down til landfall. as soon as half the storm is over the peninsula, it will slow the storm down and change the track most likely northward
during the feeder bands, the squalls, don't panic. this storm has developed three feeder bands before you get to the storm. these bands radiate away from the storm. they come in faster than the storm center itself. one feeder band set in ten minutes ago
that will pass in 20-30 minutes. then regular rain. after 2-3 feeder bands the weather will settle down to a dull grey continuous rain (still from winston)
re: waves in front of ambergris caye, this storm have the wave conditions exactly what they have predicted.
there have been waves up to 30 feet so far, but that was an unusual event. but the general wave train is 8-12 feet, that could build to 16 feet, those are the waves coming in from the storm and across the barrier reef. the west windw are already here.
Jim says we are ready and waiting.most evac completed. police and bdf and coast guard staying on the island during the storm. we will address any emergency immediately after the storm. the last of the boats and planes will hunker down soon. get those last bits and pieces to prepare the homes. please when the seas are rough this afternoon keep the children away from the beaches and the river. currents will be strong.
sale of liquor has stopped. he begs the community to stay sober, you may be need ed to help your family. the emergency committees are ready.
caye caulker has its last boat ready to be picked up,. 12:45 it leaves
Thanks Mary! I just got an email from Dad telling me where they were. Glad you all are somewhere safe. I will be saying my prayers for all in San Pedro. If you get any more info. could you keep me posted? Dad gave me some phone numbers a few days ago, but am not sure these are the ones where they are staying.
if the emergency committee thinks the electric lines may fall, they will shut off the power for a few hours for the duration of the storm, then turn it back on once the major winds pass.
there are rumors around that the storm cannot be as bad as keith, come and go and thats it. winston, what do you say about that?
winstons response: mitch, didn't come but sent waves in crashing from the east. keith: developed here turned in some circles and brought the weather from the opposite direction. dean is attacking from both sides, east and west.