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Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246368
08/21/07 04:05 AM
08/21/07 04:05 AM
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 759
bogalusa, LA USA
kerry Offline
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kerry  Offline
spoke with nancy scott on IM yesterday....she decided to stay, and several people are at her place....drummer dan, dennisito, rick farmer...i know there are others there, but don't know the names...also got thru on the phone earlier to ray...friend of casey moore...on the lagoon side....they decided to stay as well...ray said everything is fine, dogs are ok...don serruntine is there as well...others there 2 but not sure who...got an email from linda earlier, and they are staying...she says that kathy (beachin kitchen) has a gas stove and they have plenty of food and supplies...also said "no worries"
this board has been the best...i have been so worried about everyone, and being so far away, all of you have kept me up to date....thanx not only to marty, but to everyone who has contributed photos, info...etc....

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246369
08/21/07 04:07 AM
08/21/07 04:07 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 3
uk
S
stormchaser Offline
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stormchaser  Offline
S
Pressure now corrected to 906

Latest:
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: stormchaser] #246370
08/21/07 04:08 AM
08/21/07 04:08 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Belize
belizegayl Offline
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belizegayl  Offline
I think south Belize isn't going to get anything.
Interesting

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246371
08/21/07 04:11 AM
08/21/07 04:11 AM
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 70
H
hunters Offline
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hunters  Offline
H
000
WTNT44 KNHC 210900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
THE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS
NOW JUST INLAND. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST
NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124
KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED
WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE
IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.

DEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
A BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.
ASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
COASTLINE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 87.8W 145 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.1N 90.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 19.6N 93.9W 95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE


No matter where you go ... There you are!
Re: Here comes Dean [Re: hunters] #246372
08/21/07 04:12 AM
08/21/07 04:12 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Belize
belizegayl Offline
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belizegayl  Offline
Ok, I think its time to get some sleep.
Seems maybe the worst is over but what do I know, I'm half asleep trying to pay attention to everything. hehe

Nyt Nyt everyone who is still here.

I'll check back later.

Oh wait, they are actually talking about Belize City on CNN. WOW!
They are talking to someone in Belize on CNN.....

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: hunters] #246373
08/21/07 04:13 AM
08/21/07 04:13 AM
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 70
H
hunters Offline
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hunters  Offline
H
CNN has Kevin Cannon (sp?) In Belize City, live report right now


No matter where you go ... There you are!
Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246374
08/21/07 04:13 AM
08/21/07 04:13 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Belize
belizegayl Offline
.
belizegayl  Offline
Looks like they are at the Raddison on the roof

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246375
08/21/07 04:13 AM
08/21/07 04:13 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Belize
belizegayl Offline
.
belizegayl  Offline
People are out on the dock...

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: Otteralum] #246376
08/21/07 04:14 AM
08/21/07 04:14 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 97
Sanibel, Florida, US
T
Tradewind Offline
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Tradewind  Offline
T


From National Hurricane Center (US):

Dean made landfall on the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near
the cruise ship port of costa maya around 0830 UTC...and the eye is
now just inland. Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter
plane indicate that the hurricane was intensifying right up to
landfall. A peak flight-level wind of 165 kt was measured just
north of the eye. Maximum surface winds from the SFMR were 124
kt...but it is highly likely that the maximum surface wind speed
was not reported by the SFMR instrument. A GPS dropsonde in the
northern eyewall measured a wind speed of 178 kt averaged over the
lowest 150 meters of the sounding. Based on the dropsonde and the
flight-level winds...the intensity is set at 145 kt. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a central pressure of 906 mb just prior to
landfall. Some historic notes are in order here. The 906 mb
central pressure is the ninth lowest on record for an Atlantic
Basin hurricane...and the third lowest at landfall behind the 1935
Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys and hurricane Gilbert of
1988 in Cancun Mexico. Dean is also the first category five
hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin since Andrew of
1992.


Dean will weaken as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula and
the amount of weakening will depend on how long the center remains
over land. Our current thinking is that the cyclone will still be
a borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane when it emerges over the Bay of
Campeche...but there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast.
Assuming that the inner core is not too disrupted by its
interaction with land...Dean should regain major hurricane status
before its final landfall in Mainland Mexico.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/17. Deep layer high pressure
near the northern Gulf Coast should steer the hurricane on a
west-northwestward to westward heading for the next couple of days.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.

The Hurricane Warning is extended westward along the Bay of Campeche
coastline of Mexico.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/0900z 18.7n 87.8w 145 kt


- That 178 knot dropsonde reading was a wind of nearly 200mph. Remember, this is well north of Belize by like 75 miles - so I don't want to scare anyone. Last report from me, stay safe.

Re: Here comes Dean [Re: belizegayl] #246377
08/21/07 04:14 AM
08/21/07 04:14 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Belize
belizegayl Offline
.
belizegayl  Offline
Looks pretty nasty out there

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