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All quiet from San Pedro #2536
10/01/00 11:49 AM
10/01/00 11:49 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,302
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
No phone calls or emails for a half hour from San Pedro..

Probably may not for awhile.

After they stayed up during Mitch, it appears they are down now.

i did just get through to Frank Redmond in Belize, who is calling the island, and says there are 100mph winds, that water is not a huge problem yet, but there is high-ish water. No huge storm surge. People are hunkered down, and its not as bad as we fear.

The eye is passing right by, and moving very slowly. Not good.

Ray is a pretty knowledgable fellow, and has been here before. He and Peter Singfield are both very knowledgable fellows, and Peter expects his last email to me will be his last.

Check the Corozal !0:30 report for Peter, here's what Ray has to say:

Not much anybody can do right now but sit tight. For the next 12 hours
or so, there is not going to be any news out from San Pedro or Caye
Caulker. Though maybe somebody might be able to, during the eye of the
hurricane as it passes over.

Sartenja is in trouble I expect. They will be getting on shore winds
and tidal surge. Any boats for Sarteneja that were at moorings should be
sunk by now, or broken up on the shore line. They have a strong rock
pier, that will probably survive, but it will sure wreck their boats as
they will be driven on it and the shoreline. Expect all the papaya
plantations, about a hundred or more acres of them to be completely
destroyed flat. Probably with that high a winds, lot of houses going
down to. At least some roofs gone. This Keith is moving so slow it is
doing damage. Maybe lower windspeeds by the time it gets to Orange Walk
and Corozal. But Corozal is going to get a licking from tidal surge.
Water will be driven right on shore on current tracking.

Wind damage of hurricane force will probably extend out about eight
miles either side of the eye. That gives it about a 24 mile wide swath
as it runs over Belize of extensive real damage.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 11-04-2000).]

Re: All quiet from San Pedro #2537
10/01/00 11:59 AM
10/01/00 11:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,302
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
The eye in the last photo had moved south and back to the east a bit onto
the sea. Leaving San Pedro town and Caye Caulker Town square under the
intense cyclonic edge of the hurricane eye with the strongest winds.
They are getting whopped from the north. Current location puts the eye
south of San Pedro town ( the center of it anyway). Covering both San
Pedro and Caye Caulker. There is no phone connection to either island anymore from the US.

Xaibe about 50 miles west reports that winds are not that bad. This is
directly west of the path of the eye. So we can see the area of damage
is going to be intense about 8 miles radius from the eye wall. Sort of
a lawn mower. Where the eye of keith goes so goes the damage for 8 miles
in any direction from the eye wall.

Chunox should get flooded I expect.

Definitely Caye Caulker and San Pedro are going to need help
afterward. They have been sitting under 70-100 mph shear winds of the eye
outer wall for 8 hours so far. The eye of Keith is teasing by going in a
circle just out of their reach, leaving them in the worst winds.

Ray Auxillou

Re: All quiet from San Pedro #2538
10/01/00 12:02 PM
10/01/00 12:02 PM

How far is keith away from san pedro? Do you think the houses can hold in san pedro?

Re: All quiet from San Pedro #2539
10/01/00 12:11 PM
10/01/00 12:11 PM

latest sat. image....eye 7 miles north of ambergris moving south

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