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90L #254573
10/27/07 05:31 PM
10/27/07 05:31 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 64,066
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP

A surface low pressure system (90L), near 16N 71W, about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border, is moving west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Thunderstorms have gotten more organized in the past few hours, and a more circular center has developed. Wind shear has fallen to 20-25 knots this afternoon, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday.

This morning's 12Z (8am EDT) computer model forecasts have made a major change: the three major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that 90L will intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL and HWRF predict 90L will move northwesterly across Haiti and western Cuba, and into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing 90L northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as 90L has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict 90L will track along the length of Cuba early next week, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify 90L into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should 90L track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which predict a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, are the most reasonable ones. This track would favor 90L developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high.

One possible wild card is the disturbed area of weather that has formed in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is currently very disorganized, but is under only 10 knots of wind shear. If it starts to develop early next week, it could alter the path and development of 90L.

I am expecting 90L to develop into a tropical storm by Monday, and a into hurricane later in week, if the system does not track directly along the length of Cuba. The eastern 2/3 of Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm affecting them on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, these regions, plus western Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas, and Mexico's Yucatan, are at risk of a hurricane.

Re: 90L [Re: Marty] #254604
10/28/07 09:10 AM
10/28/07 09:10 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,706
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
Where is that good tracking map ?

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Re: 90L [Re: elbert] #254606
10/28/07 09:15 AM
10/28/07 09:15 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,706
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline

Last edited by elbert; 10/28/07 09:18 AM.

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
Re: 90L [Re: elbert] #254623
10/28/07 10:40 AM
10/28/07 10:40 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 993
Bill Mc Ghee Offline
Bill Mc Ghee  Offline

Never Use money to measure wealth
Re: 90L [Re: Bill Mc Ghee] #254624
10/28/07 10:45 AM
10/28/07 10:45 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,706
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
Yeah , good one, thanks!

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
Re: 90L [Re: elbert] #254797
10/29/07 06:11 PM
10/29/07 06:11 PM
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 1,179
North Ambergris Caye, Belize
Portofino Offline

Portofino  Offline
I always watch Weather Underground - have the RSS-Feed in my bookmarks bar and always watch the computer models: When a storm gets close I switch over to Crown Weather as they have a collection of the most interesting maps from different sites:

Re: 90L [Re: Portofino] #254878
10/30/07 10:41 AM
10/30/07 10:41 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,706
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
Thanks , I bookmarked those as well.

White Sands Dive Shops Daily Blog
Re: 90L [Re: elbert] #254921
10/30/07 02:20 PM
10/30/07 02:20 PM
Joined: Nov 2000
Posts: 8,880
seashell Offline
seashell  Offline
Sure wish you guys would start a new thread. Every time I see this one come up, my heart gives a hard thump. So? 90L is *not* threatening Belize, is that correct?

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