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#2795 - 10/01/00 06:46 PM Latest FL recon shows 153 mph in S quadrant  

This is a flight level measurement from a hurricane hunter plane at 5:30. Surface sustained winds are somewhat less due to friction. This is a serious increase from earlier readings, and in fact the strongest winds recorded since the storm formed. This is also surprising since Keith's satellite presentation appears to have weakened and the same plane extrapolated the storm's lowest surface pressure at 957 millibars, up 14 from this morning (the higher the pressure the weaker the storm). It will be interesting to see how the NHC's next update handles these conflicting indicators.

Keith's eyewall, though shrouded by cirrus and thus not visible to satellite imagery, appears to still be intact. The eye itself has stalled midway between Belize City and San Pedro.

If the above wind measurements are correct, and if the eye resumes its westward crawl, folks in Belize City need to prepare for an extended period of very high winds. Reinforced concrete structures offer the best protection. If in a wood-frame building, stay away from windows and exterior doors, remain on the lowest floor in a windowless interior room such as a bathroom (unless in a flood-prone area, in which case you should have already evacuated to higher ground), and place heavy furniture against the windward wall (the wall on the west side of the building if the eye passes to your north).

#2796 - 10/01/00 06:48 PM Re: Latest FL recon shows 153 mph in S quadrant  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,679
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
Thanks man, you have consistently brought in some great information...

#2797 - 10/01/00 07:10 PM Re: Latest FL recon shows 153 mph in S quadrant  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 21
Sanibel Offline
Sanibel  Offline
Nothing would surprize me about this storm. The 153 reading could be a gasp preceding the collapse as the energy is squeezed into the still-functioning oversea cyclone mechanism from the landward mass of the storm. This is an anomaly and should not be used to suggest a threat of an intensifying landward heading storm. Like the death throes of a dying storm. Look at your pressure reading it doesn't lie!
I agree that the satellite suggests a possible drift towards Belize City. This storm is starting to look like Mitch and should not have a track attempted to be established. It could even reverse and reenter the Gulf of Honduras.
I do, however, believe the eye has closed/diminished (pressure rise) significantly, cirrus or not.

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