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From Tuesday evening, Channel 5 broadcast:

Met office urges vigilance over Gustav
We are smack in the middle of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and so it's no surprise that tonight the Met Office is telling Belizeans to keep an eye out for Gustav, a storm churning its way in the Caribbean Sea. The category one hurricane made landfall on the southwest peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and while some weakening is expected as it moves over that country, it is forecasted that Gustav will re-intensify and may take up a more westerly instead of northwesterly track. We spoke to Acting Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos this afternoon and he told us they are monitoring the situation.

Ramon Frutos, Acting Chief Meteorologist
"Projections have Gustav moving towards the Northwest and the force speed is expected to decrease. However, some of the models have Gustav moving more towards the west than towards the northwest and this is a concern to Belize. For example, the European models have Gustav moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday somewhere around the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula and it is something we must be concerned about. My message to Belizeans tonight is to continue to remain vigilant. Gustav is still some distance away from our coast. It is possible along the projected path that we have right now; the latest, Gustav will just very extreme northeastern part of our preliminary phase if it continues along that path. Conditions in the northwestern Caribbean, especially around Cuba and that there area around Cayman are very conducive to further strengthening of Gustav before it enters into the Gulf of Mexico. So it is possible that we could have a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean before or just at the beginning of the weekend. We will continue to monitor Gustav during tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow in the afternoon we will have a better idea of where Gustav will be headed."



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For reference on interpreting the geographical references of most weather prdictions - when "they" refer to Yucatan, that tends to include Ambergris Caye.

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Hello, we are scheduled to fly in this Friday from Miami. Any updates on this storm and the odds of us not being able to get there? I'm getting a little nervous!

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Jeff Masters this AM
The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 6Z (2 am EDT) model runs are in good agreement that Gustav will turn west and pass through the narrow channel between Cuba and Jamaica after leaving Haiti. Gustav is small enough that the Kingston, Jamaica airport on the south side of the island may be able to stay open Thursday as the storm passes to the north. However, the Montego Bay airport on the north side of the island is likely to close. Heavy rain will be the primary threat to Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

The trough of low pressure that was steering Gustav northwest has moved off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. This ridge of high pressure will force Gustav west. There is now better agreement in the longer term track of Gustav. All of the models foresee a turn to the north over western Cuba, followed by a landfall on the central U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday or Monday. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. While it currently appears that Louisiana is the most likely target, keep in mind that if you're in the cone of uncertainty, you're not safe. Final landfall of Gustav could occur anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The latest GFDL model predicts landfall near New Orleans on Sunday night as a Category 3 hurricane. The HWRF model picks Mississippi on Monday morning, as a Category 3 hurricane. The NOGAPS prefers the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night, and the ECMWF targets central Louisiana on Monday morning.

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here is the flag system explained and a Belize Hurricane tracking map
//ambergriscaye.com/art/HurricaneTrackingMapBelizeCUT.jpg


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we just got done recovering from Fay a few days ago, and now we have Gustav, as well as a possible tropical storm Hanna, which seems to pose more of a threat to my location i.e. Florida east coast...


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yep, the storm season is gearing into full swing. prepare and be safe.

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Originally Posted by ctide
Hello, we are scheduled to fly in this Friday from Miami. Any updates on this storm and the odds of us not being able to get there? I'm getting a little nervous!


I flew from Orlando to Belize during Tropical Storm Fay. The planes go around or up and over the storms (far as I can tell.) So unless a storm is imminently threatening us, it won't cause a problem. Of course if there is a hurricane threatening your departure city that could cause delays and cancellations.

At this time Belize should not be a problem to travel to tomorrow - unless you are coming in via Cuba or Jamaica.

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I wish you guys would stop stretching my screen.

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