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#294591 - 08/25/08 01:44 PM Re: Invest 94 - Check it out [Re: SimonB]  
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 192
canukgirl Offline
canukgirl  Offline
I am so confused. I don't understand all of the terminology! If something major is happening, will you send a shout out and "dumb it down" for me? :)Otherwise you may just see me walking around in a hurricane!

#294594 - 08/25/08 02:02 PM Re: Invest 94 - Check it out [Re: canukgirl]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,706
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
Okay, the disturbance was first named Invest 94 (this is a name given to an area that has the potential to develop into a tropical storm.) It was then upgraded to a tropical depression. Now the tropical depression has been upgraded to a tropic storm - this means that it has maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more and has a closed circulation (rotates.)

At the moment the computer models best guess is that the Tropical Storm Gustav will be heading in the vicinity of the Dominican Republic/Haiti. Then they guess it will cross over Cuba and then curve back a little and head to the Bahamas.

These forecast tracks can be very accurate at times, and at other times be completely wrong.

JUST ADDED: From all of the blogs, chat boards etc I am gathering that the National Hurricane Center is NOT comfortable that the computer models are even close to accurate at the moment. There was another storm feature that has been interfering with the forecasting. So be sure and check the weather channel #28 at 10 minutes to each hour and check the wunderground tropical weather page and the crown weather tropical weather page to get a broad idea of what the new forecast models will be predicting over the days to come. Some of the models are predicting landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula - so be prepared.

If you are living in Belize my advice to you would be to ensure that you have a hurricane plan and supplies. In most cases you are expected to evacuate any low lying areas and the cayes if a Tropical Storm (or hurricane) is threatening our area. You should always try and have access to some evacuation funds.

If a storm threatens your area you will hear official broadcasts on the radio and television. Your village or town will have the flag system. The flag on Ambergris Caye is at the town hall.

You must not listen to rumours on the street - only listen to the public advisories.

If you don't have a plan - make it now. If you don't have the right supplies (including medicines and pet foods) get them together now. If you don't have evacuation funds, start saving - now.

Whether or not you evacuate you are typically expected to be fairly self sufficient. You should have your own supply of food, clothes, water, toiletries, medicines, blankets etc.

Hurricane shelters will not accept pets.

Being prepared will mean that you will be a lot less stressed if a storm does threaten or hit.

As always, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Last edited by Amanda Syme; 08/25/08 02:19 PM. Reason: added more comments
#294600 - 08/25/08 02:17 PM Re: Invest 94 - Check it out [Re: Amanda Syme]  
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 192
canukgirl Offline
canukgirl  Offline
Thanks Amanda! We are on Ambergris Caye as well. Appreciate all the info!

#294603 - 08/25/08 02:25 PM Re: Invest 94 - Check it out [Re: canukgirl]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,706
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
If a storm is pending many of the regular boarders will provide the blow by blow (yes pun intended) information and advice.

If the island boarders go quiet it means no power, no internet etc. This is usually a short interruption.

Things can get stressful and scary very quickly. Even if you are prepared you might find that others may need assistance too.

Be safe.

#294620 - 08/25/08 03:11 PM TD #9 is now Gustav  
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 11
dgwcarib Offline
dgwcarib  Offline
I am in the Florida Panhandle .. just sent Fay packing after 21 incehes of rain, flooding and down trees. Hope this one peters out by it does not sound like it will ....

As of 2pm this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression 7 to Tropical Storm Gustav, based on data received from Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Gustav is now a 60 mph storm, located about 225 miles SSE of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti. Gustav is moving to the NW at 14 mph. Hurricane warnings and watches are in place for western Haiti.

Forecast track has TS Gustav strengthening to a hurricane tomorrow morning and crossing the SW portion of Haiti mid-day Tuesday. Longer term, Gustav will cross the SE portion of Cuba on Wednesday morning and weaken to a Tropical Storm. Through Saturday, Gustav is predicted to hug the northern coast of Cuba.

Computer models are somewhat divergent, but most take Gustav across Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, some along the northern coast near the Florida Straits, others to the western gulf toward the Yucatan Peninsula. We should have a clearer picture on this in the next day.

Here's the latest graphic:

#294633 - 08/25/08 04:47 PM Gustav  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
SP Daily  Offline

#294634 - 08/25/08 04:48 PM Re: TD #9 is now Gustav [Re: dgwcarib]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,706
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
For those that are unfamiliar with the term "merge" it means putting all of the pieces of the same subject together into the same thread. This is to assist viewers by not requiring that they read 3 posted threads in order to read about one singular subject.

#294635 - 08/25/08 04:50 PM Re: Gustav [Re: SP Daily]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,706
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
Jeez Jesse - trying to merge here!!

#294706 - 08/26/08 06:56 AM Re: Gustav [Re: SP Daily]  
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 517
natalie p Offline
natalie p  Offline
Uh-oh. Moving more westward.Getting bigger!

#294711 - 08/26/08 08:38 AM Re: Invest 94 - Check it out [Re: Amanda Syme]  
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 59
nug_luvr Offline
nug_luvr  Offline
As a tourist showing up next week I am hoping someone can explain the flag system for me. Also, as a tourist what should I know in case of evacuation? I'm sorry if these questions have been answered before, but just a little bit of a worrier.

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