Interesting stat from Jeff Masters today -
Gustav's impact on Cuba and Mexico's Cancun/Cozumel region
Cancun and Cozumel are no longer in the cone of uncertainty, so a direct hit from Gustav is unlikely. Remember, though, that the cone is only right about 2/3 of the time--historically, over the past five years, about 1/3 of storm positions have fallen outside the cone. For example, the NHC forecasts issued at 5 pm, 8pm and 11pm Wednesday all put the cone of uncertainty along the northern portion of Jamaica, and the eventual track of Gustav directly over the island fell outside the cone of uncertainty. With that caveat in mind, those of you planning to visit Cancun/Cozumel will probably only have one day of heavy rain (Saturday), with some wind gusts of 40-50 mph. The Yucatan will be on the weak (left) side of Gustav, where tropical storm force winds do not extend out as far. The odds of Cozumel getting sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) have decreased to 23%, as indicated in NHC's wind probability product. The odds of hurricane force winds are 3%.
The portion of the world most likely to suffer a major hurricane strike from Gustav will be western Cuba. If Gustav makes landfall as a major hurricane somewhere along this stretch of coast, it may bring a storm surge of 10-15 feet to the right of where the eye come ashore.