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ScubaLdy #305472 10/20/08 10:15 AM
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I remember that rain - Dr. Wil Lala always kept track of the rainfall back in those days - so the hotline to Wil was going crazy!


Amanda Syme #305501 10/20/08 11:16 AM
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Me too - a large number of boats sank that night --- !

am moving my boat back to shallow water as soon as there is a break in the drizzle -

and did I say that yesterday there were birds fishing in the "road" behind our house?

Joined: Oct 1999
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JeffMasters, 1:47 PM GMT on October 20, 2008
An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure (91L) continues to fester off the coast of Belize in the Western Caribbean Sea. This morning's QuickSCAT pass revealed no surface circulation, although some rotation at higher levels of the atmosphere is apparent on satellite loops. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance increased some in the past few hours, spreading over the Cayman Islands. However pressures are not falling at present over the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is a high 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFDL model develops 91L into a tropical storm that hits Florida near Sarasota Friday morning with 50 mph winds. The 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model is slower, predicting a landfall near Tampa on Saturday morning. However, this landfall may occur as a weaker subtropical storm or extratropical storm, as predicted by the latest phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State. The other reliable models do not develop 91L. NHC is giving 91L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Marty #305571 10/20/08 05:51 PM
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methinks we be fine for the moment - just very soggy and suffering from cabin fever

SimonB #305603 10/20/08 08:55 PM
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Add 3" for the total for today!

SimonB #305683 10/21/08 09:56 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
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The forecast for 91L MORE RAIN!!!!

Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next three days. Steering currents are weak, and little movement is likely through Wednesday. Heavy rains will affect northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Thursday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida between Tampa and the Big Bend region on Friday night. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and 91L is expected to make a transition to a very wet extratropical storm by Friday. The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.

Marty #305779 10/21/08 07:19 PM
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Why did all the planes just fly off the island at 6:15PM?

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Strange, another one just left.

SimonB #305786 10/21/08 07:32 PM
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A new pilot is being tested out and they're doing touch and go landings.

SimonB #305875 10/22/08 08:13 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
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According to the MET this morning, the skies will clear briefly today and then a Tropical Wave is headed our way with MORE RAIN.
DANG, PHOOH and SHUCKS.


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