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Airfares could drop steeply next year #309396
11/07/08 09:06 AM
11/07/08 09:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 72,026
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

Marty  Offline OP
A combination of plummeting oil prices and weak traffic likely will prompt substantial reductions in airfares next year, according to a new outlook by AirlineForecasts.

Vaughn Cordle, chief analyst with the research and strategy consultancy, said average fares next year should fall between 7% and 10%, and possibly as much as 12%, depending on fuel prices and traffic trends.

Although some of the expected fare reduction is attributable to lower oil prices, the other key driver is reduced demand, especially from consumers beleaguered by shrinking home values, unemployment and other factors pinching their expenditures.

Cordle noted that home equity loans alone accounted for 4% of consumer expenditures annually for several years before being shut off as house prices declined.

The AirlineForecasts analysis indicates a strong correlation between fuel prices, which have been in sharp decline, and fares, said Cordle.

Traffic and load factors, which Cordle expects will be “horrible” in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, are seen as placing considerable downward pressure on fares, especially when combined with cheaper fuel.

Cordle added that another likely result of weak airline traffic will be further capacity cuts next year.

-Travel Weekly

Re: Airfares could drop steeply next year [Re: Marty] #309401
11/07/08 09:11 AM
11/07/08 09:11 AM
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 206
Canam Offline
Canam  Offline
I don't doubt the source, but why then are most major airlines stating that this will not be the case, so we shouldn't get our hopes up?

Re: Airfares could drop steeply next year [Re: Canam] #309573
11/07/08 09:25 PM
11/07/08 09:25 PM
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 520
Don Greife Offline
Don Greife  Offline
I'd like to think the fares would drop significantly so I could keep up my average of 6 trips/year to SP but doubt that it will come to fruition. I wrote to Continental and told them that I thought American was "eating their lunch" on fares to BZ (FROM IAH). I got a "form letter" back which emplied I should keep ny big nose out of their business and to forget about any "specials" from Kansas City. Got a trip paid for in December, and looking for a fare in November but haven't found one yet. Hope next year is better for the tourist.

I'll be happy to discuss my avatar with anyone who knows what it is.
Re: Airfares could drop steeply next year [Re: Don Greife] #309678
11/08/08 07:18 PM
11/08/08 07:18 PM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 803
Brooklyn, NY
carbunkletrumpet Offline
carbunkletrumpet  Offline
Lord knows it can't get any higher!

But why eat my vegetables I already know that I am short!

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