HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
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10 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000
...KEITH STILL STATIONARY AND WEAKENING SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
KEITH REMAINS STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATE TODAY OR TOMORROW.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KEITH WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE MOST RECENT CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
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STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6-8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE
BAY OF CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY
WATER CAN RAPIDLY RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BAY
SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 20 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 87.8 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 979 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion
541
WTNT45 KNHC 021443
TCDAT5
HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
KEITH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN. LAST RECON REPORTED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 979 MB AND THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND WAS 68 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT HAM RADIO REPORTS OF 80 MPH
SO THE WINDS WILL BE HELD A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE
AIRCRAFT. KEITH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
REMAINS PARTIALLY OVER WATER. OBVIOUSLY THE DECAY WILL BE MUCH
FASTER SHOULD KEITH MOVE INLAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY. THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD
DRIFT HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAS NOT BUILT WEST AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS AN AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MINIMAL STEERING
AROUND THE HURRICANE. THE MORNING INITIALIZATION OF THE AVN PLACES
KEITH ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE HURRICANE
AND THE DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE ETA INITIALIZES
BOTH SYSTEMS AND ROTATES THE TWO AROUND EACH OTHER. THE UKMET...ON
THE OTHER HAND...DOES NOT SHOW THE SECOND SYSTEM AND TAKES KEITH TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...IT IS HARD TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
AND HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOTION FORECAST IS THE BEST BET.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND MAY WELL NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 17.7N 87.8W 70 KTS
12HR VT 03/0000Z 17.7N 87.8W 60 KTS
24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.3N 88.1W 50 KTS
36HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 89.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 05/1200Z 25.0N 91.0W 60 KTS
Hurricane KEITH
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 16.10 -82.90 09/28/21Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 16.20 -83.20 09/29/03Z 25 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 16.20 -83.20 09/29/09Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 17.20 -84.30 09/29/15Z 30 1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
5 17.60 -85.20 09/29/21Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
5A 17.70 -85.30 09/30/00Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
6 17.90 -85.30 09/30/03Z 45 995 TROPICAL STORM
6A 17.80 -85.50 09/30/06Z 55 995 TROPICAL STORM
7 18.10 -86.30 09/30/09Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM
7A 18.20 -86.40 09/30/12Z 60 985 TROPICAL STORM
8 18.00 -86.60 09/30/15Z 70 984 HURRICANE-1
8A 18.00 -86.60 09/30/18Z 70 982 HURRICANE-1
9 18.00 -86.80 09/30/21Z 85 970 HURRICANE-2
9A 18.00 -87.00 10/01/00Z 90 966 HURRICANE-2
10 18.10 -87.10 10/01/03Z 100 960 HURRICANE-3
10A 18.10 -87.40 10/01/06Z 105 955 HURRICANE-3
11 18.00 -87.30 10/01/09Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
11A 18.20 -87.50 10/01/12Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
12 18.10 -87.60 10/01/15Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
12A 17.90 -87.70 10/01/18Z 115 942 HURRICANE-4
13 17.90 -87.90 10/01/21Z 110 951 HURRICANE-3
13A 17.80 -87.80 10/02/00Z 95 958 HURRICANE-2
14 17.90 -87.90 10/02/03Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
14A 17.90 -87.90 10/02/04Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
14B 17.80 -87.90 10/02/06Z 100 958 HURRICANE-3
15 17.60 -87.80 10/02/09Z 85 975 HURRICANE-2
15A 17.70 -87.80 10/02/12Z 80 979 HURRICANE-1
16 17.70 -87.80 10/02/15Z 70 979 HURRICANE-1
+12 17.70 -87.80 10/03/00Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
+24 18.30 -88.10 10/03/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
+36 19.50 -88.50 10/04/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
+48 21.50 -89.00 10/04/12Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
+72 25.00 -91.00 10/05/12Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
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[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-02-2000).]
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