Report below is from Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather.
To see the illustrations that accompany this report visit:
www.crownweather.com Tropical Weather/Hurricane Forecast

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Outlook For The 2010 Hurricane Season

Issued: Saturday, May 1, 2010 120 pm EDT
Outlook

I decided to write up an update to the seasonal forecast I wrote back in early March. I am very concerned that we’re in for a very, very busy hurricane season.

The main feature that is very worrying to me is the latest European model forecast of Sea Level Pressure Anomalies and Precipitation Anomalies in the Atlantic. The forecast continues to call for well below normal pressures and well above normal precipitation totals during the July to September, 2010 timeframe. What this means in terms of tropical storm and hurricane activity is that lower pressures mean lighter winds and less wind shear. In addition, the lighter winds and less wind shear will also mean more available moisture and in the end warmer sea surface temperatures.

One other thing to note, note the above average sea level pressures in the East Pacific (Dark red). This means that the air will be sinking in the east Pacific and rising in the Atlantic Basin. Rising air promotes more storminess.


Now, one thing to note is that the European model forecasted negative conditions for the 2009 Hurricane Season at this time last year and it did quite well with that forecast. So, there is some merit and credibility that the 2010 Hurricane Season may be quite active.

There are several hurricane seasons that are a close match to what this hurricane season may be like. They are 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1995, 1998 and 2005. As for potential risk areas, I have attached a map outlining all of the tracks during the 7 analog years. A few areas stand out for higher concentration of landfalls during those 7 analog seasons. These areas include eastern North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina, south Florida and the northwest Bahamas, the central Gulf coast (from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle), the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and finally the northwest Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Elsewhere, along the US coastline and in the Caribbean, don’t let your guard down as you are also at risk this season of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Sum of storm tracks of 7 analog seasons (1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1995, 1998, 2005):

Highest Threat Areas For 2010 Hurricane Season:

I suspect that we will have our first tropical storm sometime in early June. The reason why is that the first storm of the season formed in early June during 5 out of the 7 analog years. Also, with sea surface temperatures running above normal and forecast lower than normal surface pressures; I strongly believe we will have our first storm in early June, if not before then.

As for my forecast numbers for this year:
16 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

The forecast numbers are based on the idea that the Atlantic will remain warmer than normal and that the current weakening El Nino will be neutral during the heart of the hurricane season. The current Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map is displayed below and it shows plenty of heat potential already for the formation and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperature Map:

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Map:

So, to sum it up, I am looking at a hurricane season coming up that will be very active. I expect neutral ENSO conditions throughout the heart of the hurricane season. In addition, above average to much above average ocean temperatures and below average sea level pressures point to an active to very active hurricane season with the highest risk areas in eastern North Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina, south Florida and the northwest Bahamas, the central Gulf coast (from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle), the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands and finally the northwest Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Cayman Islands.

This outlook should be the catalyst to start purchasing supplies and putting your hurricane kit together during May. Also, take a close look at your homeowners or renters insurance and ensure that you are properly covered for damages or god forbid total loss. Also, if you don’t have flood insurance and live in a hurricane zone, I strongly urge you to consider taking on flood insurance. Your homeowners/renters insurance does not cover for floods caused by storm surge or river flooding.

I think it's very good to be prepared and look into insurance and supply. But I also am not a friend of trying to scare and such prognosis simply will scare people!

If I look into the forecasts of the last few years - half of them were wrong Prognosis for 2006 was 85% very much above average and in reality it was below average! Last year there was a chance of 25% above average and 50% average and it was very much below average.

Yes, let’s check our supply, go through our lists and look into insurances but to be worried does not help.

Just curious, have you ever been through a hurricane?

Yes, Bob, but what has this to do with my post?
My personal opinion is to focus on possible solutions not on probable problems.

Within the last 40 years we had 2 hurricanes that made landfall in Belize but we permanently post about the forthcoming dangerous hurricane seasons and with that kind of posts we keep more and more possible visitors away from our beautiful island – later we figure out: oooops, wrong prognosis but the tourists already made up their minds for other destinations. So I’m not sure if we do the right thing posting:



As a wise resident in a hurricane zone I'll always make all measurements to prepare for every single hurricane season. So why would I need the advices of Mr. Rob Lightbown to start buying supplies now and get flood insurance? The only effect is to make people scared and keep possible visitors away from the island as they see the post and get scared and rather book outside any hurricane range!

The latest European model about global warming prepare us more or less for the end of the world but it is all just speculation. So should I take action for the end of the world now?

I don't think anybody was trying to scare anybody with this post - it is merely information sharing. There are hundreds of people that move to the island each year that have not had any experience in hurricane zones - if they are not prepared then they become OUR problem.

I think it is doubtful that anybody that was truly considering visiting or moving to Belize would be deterred from coming here because we show concern about the weather.

Um, I think they might. I am very nervous about booking my next flight down. Happy to have the information but now I'm going to think twice about coming down for the time being.

I would guess that most people who move to the islands have already done the research and know enough to be prepared.

And those with wooden houses can't even get insurance any longer....

My curiosity stemmed from your statement about the met man trying to scare people,I do not think scaring people was his priority, to be forewarned of a bad hurricane season in my opinion is a warning that should be heeded, the more information the better. nothing more nothing less.

That was exactly my point. Those that are committed to making a move or a visit will do so any way, those that are on the fence could sway either way.

And yes you can insure wooden houses - I have an allied perils policy on my wooden house, fence and boat dock.

Beppy - the most popular time for travel to Belize is during the months of December thru May - all of these months are non-hurricane season months. The months of June thru November are classed as hurricane season. Traditionally Belize's most active storm months are September and October.

Tourist evacuations are high priority in case of storms so tourists can typically get a seat on a plane heading out of the area when necessary.

I just love reading these Hurricane Season Threads.
IMHO planning a vacation and considering the hurricane season is an unrealistic concern, silly and humorous to me, but I'm a warped individual.
To make myself perfectly clear,I would not consider the hurricane season a factor in planning my vacation because its an unrealistic concern. Consider the frequency that one actually hits the island (every 4 or 5 years) and the short time you are here (a week or two)...not very likely.
I've been living on this island since 1986.