Watching An Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Eastern Pacific:
That’s right, I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador in Central America. I expect that this system will continue organize and poses a threat to become a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific before it moves inland over Central America late this week. Flooding rains with mudslides are likely late this week across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
The reason why I am monitoring this disturbance so closely is because there is a chance that it could move into the western Caribbean as early as late Friday or Saturday. Most of the model guidance this morning have backed off on significant tropical development in the western Caribbean and instead forecasts that this system will dissipate over central America and never transfer the energy into the western Caribbean.
It should be noted that environmental conditions in much of the western Caribbean will become favorable for tropical development over the next day or two and remain favorable right through this upcoming weekend. So, even though the model guidance has backed off on transferring the energy from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean, this area will be watched very closely since conditions will be favorable for development. If (and that is a big if) a system does get going in the western Caribbean, it would likely affect the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica.
There are some similarities between this system and of Alma-Arthur from 2008. The big difference is that Arthur in the southwest Caribbean tracked west into Central America; while this system would track northeast due to a weakness in a ridge of high pressure.http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325