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Joined: Apr 2000
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Watching An Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Eastern Pacific:
That's right, I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific, located a few hundred miles south of El Salvador in Central America. I expect that this system will continue organize and poses a threat to become a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific before it moves inland over Central America late this week. Flooding rains with mudslides are likely late this week across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

The reason why I am monitoring this disturbance so closely is because there is a chance that it could move into the western Caribbean as early as late Friday or Saturday. Most of the model guidance this morning have backed off on significant tropical development in the western Caribbean and instead forecasts that this system will dissipate over central America and never transfer the energy into the western Caribbean.

It should be noted that environmental conditions in much of the western Caribbean will become favorable for tropical development over the next day or two and remain favorable right through this upcoming weekend. So, even though the model guidance has backed off on transferring the energy from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean, this area will be watched very closely since conditions will be favorable for development. If (and that is a big if) a system does get going in the western Caribbean, it would likely affect the Cayman Islands, Cuba and Jamaica.

There are some similarities between this system and of Alma-Arthur from 2008. The big difference is that Arthur in the southwest Caribbean tracked west into Central America; while this system would track northeast due to a weakness in a ridge of high pressure.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Joined: Jul 2006
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SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
14N95W HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM S AND SE
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ALSO NOTED OFFSHORE WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N90W AND
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM
OF COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Joined: Oct 1999
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** A weather system in the Eastern Pacific might send us some of it's energy/rain over the next few days. Predictions are for heavy rain and mudslides in the "usual" places in Central America (not Belize). Do be aware of flooding potential on roads/bridges on mainland (especially the Kendall bridge and coastal highway) if you have travel plans. If you hadn't cleaned your gutters before the last big rain, it's time to do it now.


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