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#380208 06/14/10 07:03 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
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Not coming to call on Belize, but a weather trend of note.
From Crown weather ....
Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Monday, June 14, 2010 615 am EDT/515 am CDT

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Discussion

Invest 92-L, Which May Become A Tropical Depression Today: I continue to monitor an area of low pressure, labeled Invest 92-L, which is located about 1050 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It has become better organized over the last 12 to 18 hours and the cloud signature is becoming much more typical of a tropical depression. Satellite imagery showed that convection intensified overnight and the ball of convection observed is indicative of a strengthening system. Based on the satellite presentation alone, I suspect that Invest 92-L will be upgraded to a tropical depression later this morning or at the very latest this afternoon. It is also not of the question that this system may become a tropical storm by this time tomorrow morning.

I expect Invest 92-L to continue tracking to the west-northwest at a forward speed of about 15 mph today through Tuesday. After that, 92-L may bend back a bit towards the west by the middle of this week. I am leaning towards the tracks of the TVCN and TVCC dynamic model tracks, which ultimately carries this system into the Leeward Islands by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain favorable for development and intensification from today through Tuesday. After that, wind shear values are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 knots during the middle to last part of this week. Based on this, I expect this system to be upgraded to a tropical depression later this morning and maybe a tropical storm by tomorrow morning. Weakening seems likely later this week as hostile wind shear values should affect this system.

All interests in the Leeward and Windward Islands should keep close tabs on the progress of Invest 92-L.

Another strong tropical wave has just emerged off of the coast of Africa. This disturbance has the potential to develop over the next few days and it will be monitored very closely. It should be noted that the African tropical wave train will continue for the next week to 10 days. After that, it appears we may see a break for 2 to 3 weeks. After that, the wave train from Africa will come back around mid-July and it could go gangbusters at that point in terms of named storms.

Obviously, this is unprecedented to be discussing tropical cyclone development in the eastern Atlantic in mid-June. This is very bad news as it appears that this is a sign of things to come and it is indicative of a potentially dangerous and possibly historic hurricane season. Development from the African Wave Train in mid-June is extremely early and is very concerning.

Fnext tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday morning.



Joined: May 2000
Posts: 7,052
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I'm glad the weather predicted for this past weekend didn't come to fruition. The Foths yard sale was able to go ahead as planned.

But it is time for us to go over our storm list, prepare and be alert. Thanks for the reminder Diane.

Amanda Syme #380460 06/15/10 02:56 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
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92-L fizzles ! Yea!

*************
From WeatherUnderground ....

Dry air disrupting 92L
Invest 92L, which yesterday was a remarkably well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season, has fizzled, due to dry air. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite loops show that the storm has wrapped a large amount of dry air to the west into the storm's center of circulation. With the storm continuing to track west-northwest to northwest into dryer air, the prospects for 92L developing into a tropical depression appear dim. With wind shear expected to rise from its current levels of 10 - 15 knots to 20 - 25 knots on Wednesday, the combination of shear and dry air should be able to pretty much destroy 92L on Wednesday. Shear values will likely increase to 30 - 40 knots by Friday, when 92L will move into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a window of opportunity this afternoon for 92L to fend off the dry air and organize into a tropical depression. One advantage the storm has it that it has developed a well-formed surface circulation. The low-level center of circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a moderate (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I would put the chances a bit lower, at 20%. Even if 92L does develop into a tropical depression, it is highly unlikely to cause any trouble for the Lesser Antilles Islands, since wind shear and dry air will probably destroy the system before it can reach the islands.


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