Time to start prepping just in case:

Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
In addition to keeping an eye on Colin, I am also closely watching a tropical wave that is located in the central Caribbean, which has been designated Invest 92-L. Development seems unlikely until it reaches the western Caribbean on Thursday. The global models aren't overly robust with significant development and the latest SHIPS intensity guidance forecasts intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm before coming ashore in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

What is interesting and should be noted is that the hurricane track models forecast this system to emerge in the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico during the day Sunday with what looks like a second landfall in eastern or northeastern Mexico early next week. Now, the global model guidance keep this system weak and do not forecast that it will emerge in the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico.

I'm not totally ready to buy into the idea that this will gain as much latitude as the hurricane track models are forecasting. I just think high pressure over the southern United States is too strong and this would keep the system down in the Caribbean with a landfall in Honduras or Belize on Saturday.

Regardless, I will keep a close on this system over the next few days to see what happens.

Finally, I am keeping an eye on disturbances in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. One particularly strong disturbance just tracked off of the coast of Africa, however, the model guidance isn't too overly robust with development as it is likely to compete with energy inside the ITCZ. So, development chances over the next few days seem low, however, we should watch for development as it travels further west this weekend into next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.

From Crownweather...


Last edited by SimonB; 08/04/10 08:18 AM.