Hi All, from Crown Weather this morning:


Ex-Tropical Depression Gaston:

I am also closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that was once Tropical Depression Gaston. This system was located about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Convection around this system continues to increase and organize and this may be upgraded once more to a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The track of this system is pretty straight forward over the weekend and it will track nearly due west underneath a ridge of high pressure. What is peculiar is that the model guidance as a whole are backing off on development and keep it relatively weak. It should be noted that a weaker system would be able to track nearly due west right into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and this is something that will have to be watched for very closely. Now, if this system is able to strengthen and become a hurricane against what the model guidance is forecasting, then it would like curve northward as it tracks through the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

As for the particular individual models, the European model doesn't develop it until it reaches the central Caribbean next weekend and forecasts it to be just east of the Yucatan Peninsula 10 days from now. The GFDL model forecasts it to be a strong hurricane in the northeast Caribbean about 5 days from now. Finally, the SHIPS intensity model forecasts this to be a upper end Category 2 hurricane in 5 days from now in the northeast Caribbean.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring this system very closely this weekend and will keep you all updated. Those of you in the Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system and for those of you with friends and family in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, give them a heads up and let them know that there is a tropical system that they should closely monitor this weekend. The timeframe for this system to potentially affect the Leeward Islands is during the day Tuesday.