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Marty #388459 09/24/10 08:24 AM
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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW CONTINUES WESTWARD TRACK

Tropical Storm Matthew continues on a westward track in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Packing maximum sustained winds of forty miles per hour, The Tropical Storm is making a bee-line for the north-eastern coast of Honduras. The storm should then emerge in the Gulf of Honduras near the Bay islands after midday on Saturday. Forecast models show Mathew heading straight for Belize and should reach our coastal waters by midday on Sunday. Forecaster Michael Gentle is on duty at the Belize Weather Bureau.

Michael Gentle; Forecaster

"It's likely to be over our coastal waters by midday Sunday. At that time it could likely intensify to at least a minimal hurricane. The category one hurricane is characterized by winds seventy four to ninety miles per hour."

But these are only projections. Given the right circumstances, Mathew can reach Belize's shores a stronger storm.

Michael Gentle

"The water over the northwest Caribbean is fairly warm right now so they are looking at the possibility that that could be one of the scenarios. The other possibility is if it remains low over Honduras and Nicaragua for a longer period of time then it can weaken further and then the strengthening phase would be delayed a bit."

And while Mathew is projected to cross through the northern most part of the country there is still a chance we could be spared.

Michael Gentle

"If it makes the turn later then it would likely cross our country before it starts to turn. If it makes the turn earlier then we would likely remain on the weaker side of the storm and we would get speared if the activity with it. But if it should continue and make the turn later then it is possible that we will get the full brunt of the storm."

In the meantime, the forecast is for several inches of rain.

Michael Gentle

"The rainfall projections presently were projected for the first land fall that would be over north eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. They were predicting between six to ten inches of rainfall for that area. We can see similar amounts with a second landfall in our area and this rainfall sometimes gets enhanced by a higher elevation so in our case it is the Maya mountains in the south so we need to monitor the situation with that as we could still get some higher rainfall in these areas."

Gentle says warnings should be raised as early as tomorrow.

Michael Gentle

"Our warning area starts as eighty degrees west. It would likely be in our area as early as by tomorrow morning and by that is when we go into our first phase. The next phase is when it crosses eighty degrees west when we go into phase two or the watch phase. The second phase you would usually say that you have thirty six hours warning time. With the third phase twenty four hours lead time for warning."

Belizeans are advised to monitor the storm and keep updated on its progress.

Michael Gentle

"We need to stay in tuned to latest advisories as they come out. The advisories from the hurricane centre are issued every three hours and we usually relay that to the public and as soon as NEMO sets their process into action then we start getting advisories from NEMO also as to shelters and there is need for evacuation and things like that."

Again viewers are asked to stay tuned to your radio and do not listen to rumours.

LOVE FM

Marty #388471 09/24/10 08:59 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
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Matthew has gotten slightly better organized over the past several
hours. The operational global models agree
that Matthew should continue west-northwestward across the southern
Yucatan Peninsula and/or Guatemala...with the UKMET showing the
center reaching the Bay of Campeche. On the other hand...the
GFDL..HWRF...and GFS ensemble mean forecast Matthew to reach the
East Coast of Yucatan and then turn northeastward. The differences
appear to Stem from the interaction of Matthew with a developing
monsoon low pressure area over Central America and the adjacent
waters...and to a lesser extent on the development of a deep-layer
trough over the central and eastern United States. For now...the
track forecast will compromise between these extremes and call for
a slow northward motion over the Yucatan Peninsula to keep
continuity from the previous forecast. However...this is a
low-confidence forecast...and significant changes may be required
later today.

The new forecast track has Matthew passing over more land than previously
and the forecast intensities have thus been lowered. It should be
noted that none of the intensity guidance shows Matthew becoming a
hurricane before reaching Honduras and Nicaragua...but this
possibility cannot be ruled out. The intensity of Matthew after 48
hr is highly dependent on which groups of models are correct about
the track. If the global models verify...the cyclone will likely
dissipate over eastern Mexico or Guatemala. If the GFDL/HWRF
verify...the system will be stronger than forecast over the
Caribbean waters.

Marty #388472 09/24/10 09:20 AM
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here's my take:

its scheduled to come in at borderline cat one, not that huge. i swear by the navy folks. they have a great track record

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc10/ATL/15L.MATTHEW/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

notice the max winds 60 knots (70mph) , gusts to 75 knots at 26/06z at landfall. not that strong. if it behaves as expected...

Marty #388477 09/24/10 10:15 AM
Joined: Nov 2004
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We are preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best. From where we sit, only thing to do.


Change your Latitude
Marty #388485 09/24/10 11:14 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
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Seems prudent to expect rain, rain, rain and more rain.
Listen to the radio for NEMO updates - Reef Radio and LOVE FM.

Marty #388487 09/24/10 11:20 AM
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Early morning visuals show a little better forecast in that it will impact Honduran coastline before affecting Bze. Navy track is showing landfall around Dangriga in 48+ hours out, with windspeed 60 knots gusting to 75 knots. However, the bad part is that it will penetrate inland then slow and change course moving N. so that the area feeling the effect will be much more widespread.

The cell is being broken up a bit and thus will be less intense than it would have been if the impact with the Honduran coast had not occurred prior to it moving on to Bze.

Caye Caulker began evacuation of non-residents this morning.

Marty #388491 09/24/10 11:35 AM
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track is slippin south and west.... from navy.... also a major decrease in wind projections as it goes over Honduras.
[Linked Image]
[Linked Image]


Marty #388492 09/24/10 11:42 AM
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THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. (downgrade)

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. MATTHEW HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL BUT
THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

Marty #388493 09/24/10 11:44 AM
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...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA IN A HURRY...

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

Marty #388494 09/24/10 12:21 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
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weather advisories from San Pedro - Friday Morning 24 Sept.

Preliminary Phase announced. Red flag is flying.
NEMO EOC met this morning and has an action plan that will be implemented if it is needed.

If you are on the island, listen to Reef Radio or LOVE FM. All NEMO updates will be read there.

At this time the main risk to Belize is primarily heavy rainfall and floods.

***********

The forecasts for Matthew are all over the place. The system could affect us in one way or another well into next week. The main advice at this time is to be prepared, stay informed and plan to get wet.

***********

Sunday's previously announced power outage from 6 am - noon has been cancelled.

************

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