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#388384 - 09/23/10 12:04 PM Re: Caribbean Development Late Next Week,Next Weekend? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 723
SFJeff Offline
SFJeff  Offline
So another GREAT voice for all thing tropical storm related can be found at:

Gentleman who runs the blog is retired USCG Meterorologist/Forecaster... He knows his stuff... used to have a blog on Wunderground until recently (was banned for some reason... Jeff Masters is great but boy do the comments on his blog get stupid.)

So just wanted to toss this into the ring so folks can add it to the list...

And yeah, boy, not to wish ill on Honduras, but let's hope this thing goes S. and get disrupted... I ya.

#388392 - 09/23/10 01:00 PM Re: Caribbean Development Late Next Week,Next Weekend? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,718
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
Thanks for the new link SF Jeff.

#388393 - 09/23/10 01:18 PM Re: Caribbean Development Late Next Week,Next Weekend? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
SP Daily  Offline
From Jeff Masters:
The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land.

#388396 - 09/23/10 01:31 PM Re: Caribbean Development Late Next Week,Next Weekend? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,777
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
AT THIS POINT predicted cat 1 at landing

#388414 - 09/23/10 03:42 PM Matthew  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,777
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
NEMO Public Advisory TD 15

Tropical Storm Matthew forms over the South Central Caribbean Sea. Watches and warnings issued for portions of Central America. The center of Tropical Depression 15 is located near latitude 13.9 North, Longitude 76.2 West. The depression is moving toward the West near 15 MPH and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH with higher gusts with strengthening to occur. The Depression could become a Tropical Storm later tonight or Friday.

The public is being advised to be aware of the increased likelihood of further deteriorating weather conditions as Tropical Depression 15 nears our area over the weekend

NEMO advises people traveling to the Cayes and those along the coast to pay particular attention to sea conditions. The public is further advised to listen to their local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service.

NEMO is on high alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Depression 15. Please contact your NEMO District Coordinator for local information.

#388444 - 09/24/10 04:39 AM Re: Matthew [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 80
Timmy Offline
Timmy  Offline
Thanks Marty. Looks like a real soaker no matter what. We need to check the buoy and station on Swan Island. I try later to contact by radio to an old friend of mine. What happends there tells the tale of how certain we'll be hit and how hard. Me bones tell me to worry about this one.

#388453 - 09/24/10 07:45 AM Re: Matthew [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,718
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
There is a link to the buoy on our site:

#388454 - 09/24/10 07:58 AM Re: Matthew [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,718
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
This is a comment that Ray Lightbown of Crown Weather pointed out and the part that continues to have me preparing for a storm:

"The latest National Hurricane Center forecast from 5 am Eastern Time this morning is based on a compromise between the two model extremes and it is forecasting a very slow track northward across the Yucatan Peninsula. They emphasize, however, that is a low confidence track forecast and that significant changes in the forecast track may be needed with either the 11 am or 5 pm advisory time."

#388455 - 09/24/10 08:01 AM Re: Matthew [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,777
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
[Linked Image]

At 6:00am Tropical Storm Matthew was centered near lat 14.3 n long 80.7 w, or about 275 miles east southeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. It packed winds of 50 mph with higher gusts and was moving to the west at 16 mph. -Matthew is heading generally towards Belize and is expected to strengthen.


#388458 - 09/24/10 08:22 AM Re: Matthew [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 57,777
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

Tropical Storm Matthew’s Eye trained on Belize

Eight days ago, a tropical storm blew across northern Belize. Except for the heavy rains and winds, there were minor damages and Karl moved on to Mexico where it did cause loss of life and significant damages. It’s an active season and tonight a weather system in the Caribbean has now become Tropical Storm Mathew and the projections are that the storm is heading directly our way. Indications are that heavy rains can be expected this weekend, starting on Saturday and the storm is expected to hit on Sunday morning. Both NEMO and CEMO have sprung into action and as a first step, school children are being required to stay home on Friday. The National Meteorological Service advises to be prepared. News Five’s Delahnie Bain reports.

Delahnie Bain, Reporting

The National Met Service has had closely monitoring a weather system in the Caribbean for the past few days. The system strengthened and this morning it became Tropical Depression number fifteen.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

dennis gonguez

“An active area of disturbed weather over the south central Caribbean at eleven o’clock this morning developed into Tropical Depression Number Fifteen. At that time the system was located a hundred and eighty miles east-southeast of Belize City and was moving towards the west at fifteen miles per hour. The maximum sustained winds in that system was thirty-five miles per hour.”

When we spoke to chief meteorologist, Dennis Gonguez, he told us the bad weather is heading our way.

Dennis Gonguez

“Well, the forecast track takes the tropical depression through northeastern Honduras and eventually into the Gulf of Honduras. However, conditions are favorable for the system to intensify into a tropical storm before skirting the northeast coast of Honduras. After that it enters the warm Gulf of Honduras waters and potentials are there for it to develop into a hurricane before impacting us on Sunday morning.”

By three o’clock this afternoon, Tropical Depression fifteen strengthened to become into Tropical Storm Matthew and Gonguez says we can expect a wet weekend.

Dennis Gonguez

“The weather should start going downhill Saturday night as the system nears our area. So we should see some changes coming up this weekend, it could be a rough weekend for us.”

Delahnie Bain

“Any advice for the general public?”

Dennis Gonguez

“Yes, we need to remain alert and pay close attention to this system. It could intensify and it could be on top of us over the weekend so we need to have our plans in place so that we are ready to move whenever the order is given to evacuate.”

Delahnie Bain for News Five.

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