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#389584 10/09/10 07:21 PM
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Give you chills just thinking about it! Let's hope the models are correct and it will head away from us before it becomes too energetic.

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All eyes to the sky's again folks. Paula is already in the 'hood so we will have some effect no matter what path she chooses.

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The 2 am computer models look like a cats cradle! The weather guys are not up and predicting yet - probably too confusing.

Hopefully the sun will hold until after Richard and Diana's wedding today.
Congratulations to the happy couple !!

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98L - Sunday 10 Oct - mid-day from Weather Underground

Forecast for 98L

98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday and Monday, and to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Intermittent heavy rains will also affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Western Cuba over the next three days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status at any time, and NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across Cuba. None of computer models available as of 1pm EDT developed 98L into a tropical depression. I don't believe 98L will become a depression today, but expect that it will be one by Tuesday.

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Last edited by Marty; 10/11/10 01:31 PM.
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Plan on fulling cisterns and well-watered plants.

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Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:27 PM GMT on October 11, 2010s.

Forecast for 98L
The west-northwest to northwest movement of 98L at 10 mph should take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's odds of development. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, above 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning; I'd put these odds higher, at 70%. The computer models predict 98L will continue on a west-northwest to northwest motion through Tuesday, which would take the storm close to the coast of Belize/Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night. At that point, it is possible that a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. will reach far enough south to pull 98L to the northeast across western Cuba and the Florida Keys by Thursday, as predicted by the latest 8pm EDT (0Z) run of the GFDL model. Two other models, the GFS and HWRF models, keep the storm confined to the Western Caribbean for the rest of the week, though. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L into a tropical depression. In any case, Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands can expect heavy rain from 98L over the next three days. Heavy rains from 98L will begin to affect Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, and perhaps northern Guatemala and the western half of Cuba as well. These rains may potentially last many days and cause significant flooding problems.

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I'm gona wash out my cistern and gutters today and plan on free water delivery tomorrow enough to fill it up again.


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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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Sorta seems like boat-pulling weather again - ?


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