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#390284 - 10/19/10 08:46 AM Hurricane Richard  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,205
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:38 PM GMT on October 19, 2010

Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

#390305 - 10/19/10 11:49 AM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 65
James Pearce Offline
James Pearce  Offline
Nice models! Looks set to hit either Nicaragua, Cuba, or, er, Spain?

#390310 - 10/19/10 12:49 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 55,205
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline
yeah, really pinning it down aren't they!!!!

#390330 - 10/19/10 04:06 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 597
ron Offline
ron  Offline
You could say that there is weather afoot.

#390344 - 10/19/10 05:55 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,963
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
We need rain. There is dust and the plants look parched, plus I'm still looking at my empty cistern that I cleaned out last time we thought bad weather was coming.

The Dive Shops Daily Blog
#390355 - 10/19/10 07:16 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,654
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
A little rain would be nice. Preferably without the big winds.

#390356 - 10/19/10 07:25 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 7,457
SimonB Offline
SimonB  Offline
Amen to that. It's like driving around in the desert out there. I'm buying facemasks tomorrow if we don't get some rain.

#390360 - 10/19/10 07:57 PM Re: 99L a threat to develop [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,814
Diane Campbell Offline
Diane Campbell  Offline
Let's hope for RAIN - PLEASE --- we'll take a tiny little wind if we have to. And as we are putting in our wish list - NO big waves. Had them already this year.

#390369 - 10/19/10 10:00 PM Tropical Storm coming?  
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 350
Decompression Offline
Decompression  Offline
Anyone have any insight to the weather for this weekend. I saw this today.


#390370 - 10/19/10 10:07 PM Re: Tropical Storm coming? [Re: Decompression]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,654
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
waiting to see what happens.... will know more as the hours progress into days.

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