Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 11, 2020

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

August 11, 2020

A low pressure system located about 900 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organised and is moving generally West-northwestward. The system has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression as early as later today.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

August 11, 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased and become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Atlc Gale Warning: A broad 1009 mb low pressure centered near 11.5N37W at 06 UTC is analyzed along a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm NW quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10-15 kt across the tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A gale warning has been issued over the Atlantic high seas, as this system is expected to develop gale-force winds in its N semicircle within the next 36-48 hours as seas build to 8-11 ft. Note that a tropical storm warning will replace the gale warning if/when this system becomes a tropical depression.

...Tropical Waves...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 21N south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 19W and 23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 37W south of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Please see the Special Features section for more details about this wave and the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 55W south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers are occurring N of 15N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 74W south of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 19N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data show scattered moderate convection continues north of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, over the far SW Caribbean. Strong trade winds persist in the south-central waters near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin, except for gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 7-11 ft within the strong trades off Colombia, and 7-9 ft in NE swell offshore of Nicaragua.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean waters through Fri night, with near gale-force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela for the next couple nights. Fresh winds will pulse for the next several nights through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will increase over the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight and Wed as a tropical wave crosses the region. A low pressure system, possibly a tropical cyclone, could increase winds and seas over the waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat as it moves W-NW across the tropical Atlantic waters.

A tropical wave approaching the eastern extent of an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) later this week will support enhanced moist low-level convergence and the potential for heavy rainfall. This could result in localized flooding over portions of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Invest 95L in the southern North Atlantic

August 11, 2020

An area of low pressure along a westward moving tropical wave designated as Invest 95L continues to move toward the west at about 15-20 mph. Satellite images continue to show a counter-clockwise motion in the clouds. Satellite derived winds suggest some gale force wind gusts occurring in and around thunderstorms that have increased and are attempting to wrap around the center of this feature. 95L will move through an environment of relatively low wind shear, lower than normal surface pressure and move over warm water through the middle of this week. There is a medium chance of this system becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. As 95L approaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday it will encounter stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. If an organized tropical system exists at that time, it will have difficulty maintaining wind intensity.

A tropical wave just east of 20 degrees west just emerged off the coast of Africa during the past 24 hours and has a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This feature is projected to be a robust tropical wave that will move westward during the next several days. Long-range computer forecasts show no important support for development at this point.

Farther west a large area of strong vertical wind shear is in place over the Caribbean expanding eastward. Since the current tropical waves are being mostly directed into the Caribbean, this will limit and perhaps prevent tropical development over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Area Of Disturbed Weather (Invest 95-L) Located In The Eastern Tropical Atlantic Has A Lower Chance Of Developing Now Due To Increasingly More Unfavorable Conditions
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
August 10, 2020

Invest 95-L looks kind of interesting today as it seems to be competing for energy with another area of disturbed weather just to its west.

Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 95-L, which is located very near 10 North Latitude, 34 West Longitude has some banding features, however, the thunderstorm activity is pretty meager as compared to what it looked like yesterday. There is another area of disturbed weather located just to its west near 40 West Longitude that has some deeper thunderstorm activity associated with it, however, it seems to lack any sort of circulation.

The environmental conditions around both Invest 95-L and the area of disturbed weather near 40 West Longitude have become less favorable. Even though the wind shear values remain low over both disturbances, there seems to be a ribbon of dry air that is being pushed into this area. This had led to conditions becoming more unfavorable than favorable for additional development.

In addition, there is still a large amount of dry air that is in place from the eastern Caribbean eastward to near 55 West Longitude. In addition, the wind shear values increase to around 20 knots west of 50-55 West Longitude. This will lead to even more unfavorable conditions for development by later this week.

Taking A Look at The Model Guidance: The track model intensity guidance are trending downward with their forecast strength of Invest 95-L. This is likely due to the increasingly more unfavorable conditions the further west this disturbance travels.

The global model guidance seems to agree with my assessment regarding increasingly more hostile conditions the further west Invest 95-L tracks.

It should be noted that the model guidance continues to hint that the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico may be a spot to really watch in about 2 weeks from now for potential tropical development. It needs to also be noted that this development IS NOT from Invest 95-L, but looks to be from a tropical disturbance that is still over west-central Africa near 5 East Longitude. Given that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be moving into the Atlantic then, this is something that is actually possible and will be something that I will be discussing more in depth as this week progresses and beyond.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that Invest 95-L has an uphill battle in front of it in terms of developing. The dry air to its immediate north seems to be feeding right into it leading to its meager appearance. The disturbance to Invest 95-L’s immediate west also seems to be gradually decreasing with its convective coverage as of late this morning.

Because of the increasingly more unfavorable conditions, I am decreasing the chances of development to 30 percent between now and Wednesday and near zero percent from Thursday and beyond.

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Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

August 2, 2020

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Last edited by Marty; 10 hours ago.