Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 24, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, June 24, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 24, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 17N28W to 05N29W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 14N51W to 04N52W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear, is in a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered showers and isolated tstms from 05N to 15N between 48W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 15N64W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 10-15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment hinder convection at the time.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper level low centered over the E Bay of Campeche continue to support isolated showers over western Honduras and the NW Caribbean W of 85W. Heavy showers continue across Guatemala and Belize associated with a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC with high chances of becoming a tropical cyclone this weekend. A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean, however lacking convection due to abundant Saharan dry air and dust in the region. The northern portion of this wave is analyzed as a surface trough across the Leeward Islands where it generates isolated showers. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central basin, increasing to near gale force on Sunday as the tropical wave moves into this area. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Little change is expected thereafter for the early portion of next week.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Rainstorm Cindy exiting the Eastern Seaboard


Tropical Rainstorm Cindy will become absorbed into a frontal system and move offshore of the East Coast later today. Rainfall associated with Cindy may dump another 1-2 inches of rain across southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this morning. The rain will then skirt Long Island and southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon hours before moisture from Cindy finally moves offshore and away from the Eastern Seaboard. Localized flooding in some areas will remain possible through today.

Aside from Tropical Rainstorm Cindy, there are no areas of concern across the Atlantic Basin at this time as high amounts of wind shear and dry, dusty air will hinder development across the basin. No tropical development is expected across the basin through at least the middle of next week.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

No Tropical Development Is Expected Throughout The Rest Of The Atlantic Basin For At Least The Next Few Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

June 22, 2017

Across The Atlantic Basin – Even though tropical development is not expected through at least this weekend and probably beyond this across much of the Atlantic Basin, there are a few items that I am keeping an eye on.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa near 40 West Longitude is producing scattered deep thunderstorm activity. An analysis of the environmental conditions indicate that this tropical wave is located in an area of 10 knots or less of wind shear. Even though the wind shear environment is favorable for development, it appears that there is an area of dry air located to the west of this tropical wave and this is probably why none of the model guidance are forecasting tropical development. This particular tropical disturbance is forecast to track right across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday bringing squally weather with it.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, it looks like a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin for the rest of this month into at least early July. This means that the atmosphere will have a much harder time producing a tropical cyclone across the Atlantic. I don’t believe the GFS model’s forecast of a northwestward moving tropical cyclone that tracks near the Cape Verde Islands early next week and north of the Lesser Antilles around the 4th of July. The reason why is because there is very dry air north of 15 North Latitude and the wind shear conditions are very unfavorable and the GFS model forecast just doesn’t make sense.

Looking towards mid-July and beyond, the very long range CFS model guidance continues to hint at tropical development to the east of the Lesser Antilles during the week of July 10th. In addition to this, the GFS model guidance is now starting to hint at some sort of tropical development to possibly occur between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa around July 5th and 6th. While I think that the GFS model may be jumping the gun on forecasting tropical development too early in July, I do think the chances for tropical development will start to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa beginning around July 15th as a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin around that time.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Monday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

A potential African wave to watch next week
Jeff Masters, Category 6

June 22, 2017

The GFS model is predicting the potential development of a new tropical depression early next week in the far Eastern Atlantic, from a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation--the European and UKMET models--are not yet on board with this forecast, and NHC is currently not mentioning any potential for new Atlantic tropical cyclone formation in the coming five days.

[Tuesday Evening] Cindy Bringing Flooding Threat to the North Gulf Coast; Bret Dissipating Over the SE Caribbean

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; 5 hours ago.