Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 16, 2022

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Belize NMS Forecast

May 16, 2022

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

May 16, 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...


...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean with axis south of 17N and along 65W/66W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. This position is on the edge of a lower-level area of moisture, showing up well in layered precipitable water imagery. The wave is in a unfavorable wind shear environment with no significant convection noted. Winds associated with this wave are in the 15 to 20 kt range with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range just east of the Windward Islands.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active off Nicaragua, along a surface trough that extends from the Nicaraguan coast through western Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong trade winds over the ABC islands and off the coast Venezuela. These winds are supported by strong high pressure over the western Atlantic. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft in this part of the Caribbean. The pattern also supports moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh strong trade winds across the southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week, with stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens. Moist onshore flow may also promote heavy rainfall across northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late week.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Atlantic basin may come alive in several days

May 16, 2022

While the calendar shows that it is the middle of May, waters warmer than average may yield yet another pre-season tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Should several factors come together to initiate a storm, this would become the sixth year in a row with development taking place prior to the official start of hurricane season in the Atlantic, currently set to begin on June 1.

The area of interest will be in the western Caribbean later this week into the following weekend. A tropical wave currently near the Lesser Antilles is forecast to interact with a brewing disturbance near Central America, and how these features interact will dictate the potential for development.

Elsewhere, development is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Continues To Be Possible By Next Weekend; All Signs Continue To Point Towards An Extremely Active 2022 Hurricane Season
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

May 15, 2022

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Still Possible Next Weekend: Weather analysis today indicated that there is a convection less tropical wave that will be pushing into the far eastern Caribbean later today. This tropical wave combined with a favorable background state due to an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation could be the catalyst for possible tropical development by next weekend. While this is something to certainly keep an eye on, it is definitely not a sure thing by any means.

Taking A Look At The Model Guidance – The GFS model guidance and the GFS ensemble model guidance is the only model that’s been very consistent in forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean starting as soon as Friday into Saturday.

Other model guidance such as the Canadian and European model guidance suggests that either there will be a tropical disturbance over Central America that’ll produce heavy rainfall next weekend or that any tropical development will occur in the eastern Pacific instead.

One very important item to point out is that you should ignore the GFS model’s forecast of a full-blown hurricane in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as it’s probably way overdoing the forecast strength of this system.

As for the ensemble model guidance, the GFS ensemble model guidance has been very consistent in forecasting tropical development in the western Caribbean by about Friday with a majority of the members showing a track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the early part of the week of May 23.

As for the European ensemble model guidance, it forecasts about a 50 percent chance that tropical development could occur in the eastern Pacific next weekend.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the combination of energy and moisture from a tropical wave reaching the southwestern Caribbean and the favorable upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation may be enough to form a tropical disturbance in the western and southwestern Caribbean late this week. At the minimum, this disturbance will probably produce very heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding across much of Central America late this coming week and continuing through next weekend.

Even though the upper level weather pattern, environmental conditions and background state look favorable for tropical development in the western Caribbean next weekend, this is not even close to being a sure thing. It’s possible, if not probable that the GFS model may be sending us on a wild goose chase and may be very incorrect in its forecasts. What makes me very skeptical of the GFS model is that none of the other model guidance have been showing any consistent signals for tropical development.

Based on everything that I have looked at, I still think that there is about a 20 percent chance for tropical development in the Western Caribbean between next weekend (May 21-22) and the early part of the following week (May 23-24). If, and that is a huge if, we do see a tropical system form in the western Caribbean, the most probable track would be towards the north and northeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the week of May 23. This potentially means areas from the Alabama coast eastward through the Florida Panhandle and Florida Peninsula would need to closely watch this system.

Additionally, those of you on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the Bahamas should also keep close tabs on the possibility of tropical development beginning next weekend.

All Signs Continue To Point Towards An Extremely Active Hurricane Season: The latest forecasts from the various seasonal models continue to point towards the potential for an extremely active hurricane season.

The May forecast from the C3S model, which is a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, JMA, ICON, Meteo-France, Canadian, CFSv2, & Euro-Mediterranean climate models is forecasting above average amounts of rising motions over Africa and the Indian Ocean and quite a bit of sinking air over the eastern Pacific. This is a strong signal that supports an active Atlantic hurricane season.

If that wasn’t enough, the upper level weather pattern forecast by the C3S model is pointing towards a large upper level high pressure system over the eastern United States and the western and central Atlantic. Should this occur, it would be a favorable pattern for landfalling hurricanes on the US coast and the Caribbean during August, September and October.

The signals for 2022 tropical activity look even more favorable than for 2020 or 2021.

Also, the C3S ensemble model forecasts that wind shear values for August, September and October looks very favorable and even more so than last year’s forecasts at this time.

This all means that for the 2022 Hurricane Season, I still think we will probably see 21 named storms, 9 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 4 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). In addition, it still looks like the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index could be as high as 180. This number says that I expect that overall activity in the Atlantic may be about 85 to 90 percent above the 1951 to 2020 average amount of activity. This also would put the season in the hyperactive category.

The Areas That I Think Have A High Risk From A Tropical Storm Or Hurricane Impact This Season:
All Of The Lesser Antilles.
The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba & Jamaica.
The Yucatan Peninsula, Belize & The Cayman Islands.
US States At High Risk: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Florida Peninsula, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland & New Jersey.

The Areas That I Think Have A Medium Risk From A Tropical Storm Or Hurricane Impact This Season:
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua & Costa Rica.
US States At Medium Risk: Louisiana, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island & Massachusetts.
Nova Scotia, Canada.

All other areas in the Atlantic have a low risk this season.

With that said, even though your area may have a low risk this season, be aware that any small fluctuations in the upper level weather pattern at the “wrong” time could threaten even the low risk areas.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Tuesday.

There are no recent posts related to Central America or Belize
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

October 31, 2021

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Last edited by Marty; 7 hours ago.