Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 22, 2017
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
August 22, 2017
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
August 22, 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and
surface observations indicate that the system has not become
better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected
before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this
morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or
Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion
A tropical wave extends from 24N87W to 13N88W moving W-NW at
10-15 kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey continues to be
analyzed as a 1011 mb low pressure along the wave axis near
18N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
18N-23N between 79W-89W. Satellite images and surface
observations indicates the low is along the coast of N Belize.
Tropical cyclone development is expected when the system moves
over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread
westward across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next
day or so. There is a high chance for this system to become a
tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
A tropical wave extends from 24N29W to 10N32W moving W at 15-20
kt. A 1011 mb low pressure precedes the wave centered near
12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between
25W-33W. This wave in a moist area based on TPW imagery and has a
well pronounced 700 mb trough.
A tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near 19N67W to Venezuela
near 10N68W, moving W at 20-25 kt. Isolated showers are within 120
nm of the wave axis. Subtle troughing is noted on 700 mb streamline
analysis. Some moisture is observed on either side of the wave
axis based on the SSMI TPW animation. This wave will cross the
central Caribbean through mid-week.
...The Caribbean Sea...
The remnant low of Harvey currently located over N Belize continues
to be the primary area of concern across the basin. Please, see
Special Features section for more details. A tropical wave is over
the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow are noted over parts of the east and central Caribbean.
Fresh SE winds are observed per scatterometer data across the
central Caribbean, but mainly N of 13N. These winds are the result
of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the
remnant low of Harvey.
Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Tropical Rainstorm Harvey impacts Yucatan
Tropical Rainstorm Harvey is located at 17.9° N, -88° W with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and gusts to 35 mph, moving W 20 mph, pressure 29.77 in / 1008 mb.
The tropical wave that was once tropical storm Harvey will push inland across the Yucatan Peninsula today, inundating the region with tropical moisture which will fuel heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall will also continue to impact parts of Belize and Guatemala. Rainfall totals will average between 2 and 4 inches and some locations could pick up greater than 6 inches. This will lead to mudslides and flash flooding in any higher terrain. Additionally, there can be gusty winds with the storm and can cause sporadic power outages.
Tropical Rainstorm Harvey will reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning into an environment of lower vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and deep moist unstable air. Given these favorable conditions the low pressure area should intensify back into a tropical storm sometime Wednesday or Thursday.
While the future movement of this system remains uncertain, most global computer forecasts are projecting the system to track northwest towards the northeast coast of Mexico. If the system does track in this manner, it could make landfall over northeast Mexico or perhaps deep South Texas on Friday. Residents and interests over eastern mainland Mexico and over South Texas should pay close attention to the future redevelopment and movement of this potentially high-impact storm system.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we are monitoring a tropical wave over the eastern Bahamas. There remains a potential for this system to become better organized over the next few days. Very heavy rainfall and localized flooding can be expected across the Bahamas and Florida today through Thursday as the system slowly makes a turn to the north as a trough picks it up and sends it out to sea later this week.
The last tropical wave is located east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is unlikely to develop as it struggles with strong wind shear.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Harvey Poses A Hurricane Threat To The Texas Coast By Thursday Night Through Friday & Friday Night; Everyone Along The Texas Coast Should Review Hurricane Preparation Plans & Be Prepared To Put Those Plans Into Action This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
August 22, 2017
Harvey Located Over The Yucatan Peninsula Will Organize Over The Bay Of Campeche & The Western Gulf Of Mexico On Wednesday Into Thursday & Poses A Hurricane Threat To The Texas Coast For Thursday Night Through Friday: Harvey is expected to push across the Yucatan Peninsula today with no development expected. By tonight and especially on Wednesday, Harvey is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche where the environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for strengthening. The environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable as we get into Thursday when Harvey reaches the western Gulf of Mexico. This means that Harvey will have 48 to 60 hours over favorable environmental conditions, including low wind shear, plenty of moisture and very warm ocean water temperatures, and I think we will see Harvey become a hurricane by the time it reaches the western Gulf Coast around Thursday night and Friday.
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that there is deep thunderstorm activity firing on the northern side of the Yucatan Peninsula. These satellite trends will need to be monitored as if this thunderstorm activity persists, it could lead to the low pressure system reforming near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Should this happen, it could lead to a further north track than what is being represented by the model guidance right now.
All of the model guidance have shifted northward with the forecast track of Harvey with a majority of the guidance now forecasting a landfall somewhere along the Texas coast sometime on Friday. The latest GFS model guidance forecasts a landfall of a significant hurricane between Freeport and Matagorda Bay, Texas on Friday evening. In addition, the GFS model is forecasting that Harvey could be in a favorable to very favorable environment for strengthening as it moves towards the western Gulf of Mexico during Wednesday and especially Thursday. Finally, the GFS model forecasts that Harvey will be a slow moving storm as it moves across southeastern Texas on Friday and Saturday to Louisiana on Sunday and Monday. This means the potential for over a foot of rainfall is possible across southeastern Texas, including Houston-Galveston, from late this week through this weekend.
The European model guidance forecasts that a upper level high pressure system will form over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through Friday leading to very favorable environmental conditions for Harvey to strengthen. The European model forecasts that Harvey will make landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi on Friday evening. From there, the European model forecasts that Harvey may stall along the lower Texas coast throughout this weekend before it slowly moves along the Texas coast on Monday and into southwestern Louisiana on Tuesday. This slow moving storm means that we could be looking at a massive flood threat for much of the Texas coast, including Houston-Galveston as well as parts of southern Louisiana from Friday through this weekend and into early next week.
The latest track guidance forecasts a northwesterly track from the eastern Bay of Campeche on Wednesday to the middle Texas coast between midday Friday to midnight Friday night. These track model guidance members have been trending north over the last 24 hours and the future trends of the guidance will have to be watched closely.
Here Are My Thoughts On Harvey: Development is not expected today, however, I think that we will see Harvey become a tropical storm again on Wednesday as it moves into the Bay of Campeche. From there, I think there is a pretty high chance that it will become a hurricane as it approaches the Texas coast on Thursday and Thursday night.
Where Harvey ultimately makes landfall along the Texas coast or the coast of northeastern Mexico will depend in part on a upper level low pressure system that is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This upper level low pressure system is causing a weakness in the ridge of high pressure that is in place across the southern United States. I think that we will see Harvey get drawn towards this upper level low and this means that a Texas landfall seems more likely now than a Mexico landfall.
In addition to steering Harvey, this upper level low pressure system is expected to help ventilate the storm leading to the potential for significant strengthening within a favorable environment from Wednesday to Friday.
Based on everything that I have looked at, I think we are looking at a Texas landfall between South Padre Island and Matagorda Bay on Friday evening as a hurricane with 80 to 100 mph winds.
As we get into this weekend, the forecast of Harvey becomes extremely complicated as the upper level steering winds weaken leading to the storm stalling and meandering along the Texas coast throughout this weekend. Should this occur as suggested by many of the model guidance members, then 1 to 2 feet of rainfall could occur across along the entire Texas coast, including Houston-Galveston, as well as across inland parts of southeastern and south Texas. These extreme rainfall amounts would lead to massive amounts of flooding across southeastern and south Texas from Friday through this weekend and into early next week.
Forecast Impacts For The Texas Coast: Impacts from Harvey are expected to arrive first on the lower Texas coast during the day on Thursday and spread northward into the middle and upper Texas coast on Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm and possibly hurricane force winds are currently expected from South Padre Island to Matagorda Bay from Friday through Friday night into Saturday morning.
Extreme rainfall amounts with the potential for widespread massive flooding are expected across areas along and south of Interstate 10 across south-central and southeast Texas with total rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches from Friday through Sunday. Isolated 25 inch plus rainfall amounts are possible. This is a potentially very serious flash flood and river flood threat for much of southeast and south-central Texas.
Everyone along the Texas coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put those plans into action this week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches will likely be posted for parts of the Texas coast by late tonight or on Wednesday.
I am monitoring Harvey very closely and will continue to have frequent updates for you in the coming days.
Model Track Forecast For Harvey:
Model Intensity Forecast For Harvey:
Satellite Imagery Of Harvey:
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Wednesday Morning.
Ex-Harvey Poised to Threaten Texas
Jeff Masters, Category 6
August 20, 2017
Above: The remains of Harvey as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 9:15 am EDT Tuesday, August 22, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.
All eyes are on the hurricane-friendly waters of the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, where the remains of Tropical Storm Harvey are expected to organize into a tropical storm or hurricane that will threaten Texas and Mexico late this week.
On Friday, Harvey buffeted the Windward Islands as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. High wind shear near 20 mph, combined with the accelerating east-to-west blowing trade winds that Harvey was embedded in, were sufficient to rip the storm apart on Saturday in the Eastern Caribbean, and the remains of Harvey were unable to reorganize over the Western Caribbean.
Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that center of ex-Harvey was just about to emerge from the western edge of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Ex-Harvey had a large, sloppy-looking circulation that was not well-defined, and only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Once the storm fully emerges over the Gulf, conditions are quite favorable for development. Wind shear is light, less than 10 knots. The atmosphere has a high mid-level relative humidity of 70%, and the ocean is warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 29°C (84°F.)
|Figure 1. Intensity forecasts made for ex-Harvey at 8 am EDT Tuesday, August 22, 2017. Most of the intensity models predicted ex-Harvey would be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday, when landfall is expected on the coast of Texas or northeastern Mexico. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.|
Forecast for ex-Harvey
SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F) as ex-Harvey moves to the northwest towards Texas this week. The wind shear will stay light, and the atmosphere will remain moist. These conditions should allow ex-Harvey to regenerate into at least a tropical storm before it makes landfall on Friday, and it may be able to reach hurricane strength. The 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all developed the system would develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, and all of these models showed a landfall between the Mexico/Texas border and the central coast of Texas on Friday. The NOAA jet is flying a dropsonde mission over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening to help the models make good forecasts for their 0Z Wednesday runs. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. Regardless of development, coastal Texas can expect heavy rains in excess of five inches late this week.
92L disorganized over The Bahamas
Tropical disturbance 92L was located near the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday morning. Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that 92L had almost no heavy thunderstorm activity and very little organization. The system may have better chances of development this weekend, when it is expected to be moving to the northeast, away from the U.S. coast. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively.
CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image