Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 21, 2018

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

July 21, 2018

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 21, 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 05N-18N along 28W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air and dust continue to prevail in the wave's environment as shown by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 RGBs imagery. This is inhibiting convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 05N-21N along 45W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is moving across an extensive area of Saharan dry air, which is hindering convection at the time.

A low amplitude tropical wave is moving across Venezuela with axis extending from 00N-10N along 66W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this wave between 62W-70W. This wave is forecast to move to EPAC waters on Mon.

A tropical wave is in the west-central Caribbean with axis along 81W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis in the vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly south of 13N.

...The Caribbean Sea...

The majority of the basin is pretty quiet as very dry air prevails across the area. A tropical wave is moving across the west- central portion of the basin, however lacks convection due to the aforementioned conditions. The only region of convection is within 150 nm off the coast of Costa Rica and northern Panama where the EPAC monsoon flow supports scattered showers and tstms. For more information about the wave, refer to the section above. Otherwise, the southwestern periphery of the Azores high continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the south-central basin, thus supporting fresh winds between 65W and 83W. Strong to near-gale winds are forecast at night along the Colombia coast and adjacent waters. No major changes expected through early next week.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Atlantic Basin remains benign


The tropical Atlantic Basin will remain devoid of any organized tropical activity through at least Wednesday of next week.

Despite several vigorous tropical waves emerging off the African coast, the main development region has a severely hostile environment inhibiting these waves from further developing. A significant plume of Saharan dust currently resides over a large portion of the Basin, as well as very strong vertical wind shear that is also preventing organization.

120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Development Chances Expected To Increase Across The Atlantic Basin Starting The First & Especially The Second Week Of August (August 5 To August 18)
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

July 21, 2017

All of the data that I have looked at are pointing towards the potential for the Atlantic Basin to “wake up” and start producing tropical systems during the first and more likely the second week of August or sometime between August 5 and August 18.

An upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to push into the Atlantic Basin around the first of August or so. This will lead to a greater chance for increased rainfall and storminess thus leading to a greater threat for tropical development.

The very long range CFS model has been extremely consistent in forecasting westward moving tropical disturbances to become tropical storms and hurricanes beginning the first couple of weeks of August with the CFS model insisting on a tropical threat to the extreme northeastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and parts of the US East Coast, especially from the Carolinas and points north to New England.

Interestingly, the latest GFS model guidance forecast shows a westward moving tropical disturbance to the north of the Lesser Antilles underneath a strong ridge of high pressure by around August 5. Obviously, should this occur, then it would need to be watched very closely for interests in the Bahamas and along the US East Coast.

The details of model guidance forecasts should always be taken with a ton of salt, but the larger scale hints and clues the guidance are showing us should be paid attention to.

These hints and clues include the Atlantic Basin probably will wake up during the first and especially the second week of August and that given the upper level weather pattern and the tracks of both tropical systems and non-tropical storms gives us an idea that the northeastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast, especially from South Carolina northward to southern New England should pay close attention during August and September.

The Tropics Go Quiet; Beryl Not Expected to Redevelop
Jeff Masters, Category 6

July 13, 2018

For the first time since June 27, the tropics are quiet globally. There are no named tropical cyclones left to talk about, after Hurricane Chris was downgraded to a post-tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday. Chris hit Newfoundland, Canada on Thursday evening, bringing sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to the capital of Newfoundland, St. John’s, at 10:30 NDT Thursday. A 24-hour rain amount of 0.15” (3.8 mm) fell there. Cape Race, Newfoundland reported sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 51 mph, at 8:30 pm NDT Thursday, with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 0.38” (10 mm). Chris’s heaviest rains fell more to the north and west than expected, with Gander recording 2.99” (76 mm) and Bonavista getting 2.40” (61 mm). There are no reports of serious flooding or wind damage in Canada from the storm.

Ex-Beryl unlikely to redevelop

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl were located about 300 miles west of Bermuda on Friday morning, and were headed north-northeast at about 10 mph. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Beryl's remnants now had a surface circulation, but high wind shear of 25 knots was keeping this circulation poorly defined. The associated heavy thunderstorm activity was disorganized. Beryl’s remains are expected to move north-northeastward at about 10 mph through Sunday. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be a high 25 – 40 knots during that period, and this high shear will very likely keep ex-Beryl from developing, despite the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that the system will be over. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Beryl 2-day and 5-day odds of regeneration of 20%.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Last edited by Marty; 13 hours ago.