Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 16, 2019

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

October 16, 2019

- A trough of low pressure over Central America and the Northwestern Caribbean has a low chance of development when it emerges over the bay of Campeche during the next couple of days. However, this system could still produce heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash flooding over portions of Central america during the next couple of days. - At 3:00pm Tropical Depression #15 was centered near 16.8N 22.9W or about 90mls NE of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression was moving NW at 10mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. - Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

October 16, 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

...REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN...

The remnants of the center, at 16/0900 UTC, are near 17.3N 24.1W. This position also is about 80 nm/145 km to the N of The Cabo Verde Islands. The remnants are moving NW, or 305 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. No hazards are affecting land. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for the remnants of FIFTEEN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ ADVISORIES for the remnants of FIFTEEN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The last FORECAST/ADVISORY for the remants of T.D. FIFTEEN was done at 16/0900 UTC by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information about the Tropical Depression is able to be found in HIGH SEAS FORECASTS that are issued by METEO FRANCE, under the WMO HEADER, FQNT50 LFPW.

...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR CENTRAL AMERICA...

A trough of low pressure, that is in southern Mexico and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, is producing disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in sections of Mexico from 20N southward, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of weather, and another tropical system that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, are expected to produce heavy rains in parts of southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of days. It is possible that the rain may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. The area of low pressure, that is just to the south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, is forecast to move into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and turn northward gradually, on Friday and Saturday. Gradual development is possible. It is possible that a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone may form late this week in the western or central Gulf of Mexico, while the system is moving generally northeastward. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...Tropical Waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 10N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related precipitation is mostly to the east of the tropical wave, between 20W and the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 190N to 19N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, across the western sections of the Dominican Republic, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the coastal waters/coastal plains of Venezuela and Colombia, between 65W and 76W.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the heavy rainfall event, that currently is occurring in Central America and the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the line that runs from the easternmost part of Hispaniola to the western sections of Panama.

An upper level trough passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 14N73W in the central Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W westward, with an upper level inverted trough. The monsoon trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, and across Panama and northern parts of Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N between Colombia and 79W.

Broad low pressure, across Central America, will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the NW Caribbean Sea during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere, across the rest of the basin, through the weekend. An active tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters today, across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Depression 15 dissipates near the Cabo Verde Islands; Potential for development in the southern Gulf by the weekend
Accuweather

October 16, 2019

Tropical Depression 15 has dissipated just north of the Cabo Verde Islands, just west of the African coast. Strong wind shear pushed most of the convection to the north and east of the center of circulation, allowing T.D. 15 to dissipate this morning. Aside from some rough surf, no other impacts are expected across the Cabo Verde Islands from what is left of T.D. 15.

Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure, partially of which was responsible for the formation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 17-E in the East Pacific Ocean, has moved over the southern Bay of Campeche will need to be monitored for possible development in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Computer guidance show this feature moving toward the north Wednesday and Thursday before turning toward the northeast by Friday and Saturday. There is a window of opportunity later Friday into Saturday for this feature to become better organized in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or storm could form.

Regardless of whether this feature develops or not, locally heavy rain and gusty winds will impact the northeastern gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain may also extend northward into parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas as this feature moves into the Southeast states.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Increasing Chance For Tropical Storm Development Over The Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico By Thursday Night Or Friday; This Potential Tropical Storm Will Impact The North-Central & Northeast US Gulf Coast Saturday & Saturday Night
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
October 16, 2019

It appears that an area of low pressure is currently forming over the southwestern part of the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been an increase in thunderstorm activity over the western and southwestern parts of the Bay of Campeche. Analysis reveals that this low pressure system is located in an area of low wind shear and development into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm is looking increasingly more likely by Thursday or Friday when this system is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

This potential tropical storm is then expected to be pulled either northeastward or east-northeastward reaching the US Gulf Coast between southeastern Louisiana and northwest Florida on about Sunday. This is expected to be a sloppy, messy tropical storm with most of the heavy rain, tropical storm force winds and storm surge found on the eastern side of this storm.

Looking at the latest model guidance – The model guidance all indicate that this system will become a tropical storm within the next couple of days. In addition, they also seem to agree that this will be a storm where the tropical storm force winds and heavy rain will be found on the northeast and eastern sides of the system. Where the guidance differs is where exactly the center of the storm will come ashore and when it will happen.

The GFS model forecasts the center of this system to come ashore in the Big Bend area of Florida on Saturday night with most of the heavy rain and gusty winds occurring across southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and northern and northwest Florida.

The European model and the UKMET model continues to be a little more compact and stronger than the GFS model. It forecasts a tropical storm to ride the coast from the Mississippi Delta to southern Alabama during Saturday and moving inland into southern Alabama on Saturday night (European model) or into the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday night (UKMET model). The European model is forecasting that most of the heavy rain and gusty winds will occur across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and across northwest Florida starting on Friday and continuing through Saturday.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that it is quite likely that the low pressure system that is now located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche will develop into a tropical storm by sometime on Friday. I’m putting the chances of this occurring at about 75-80 percent.

I do think that this tropical storm will move inland somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Apalachicola, Florida on Saturday evening as a 40-60 mph tropical storm. This is expected to be a messy, disorganized tropical storm with most, if not all, of the heavy rain and gusty winds occurring on the northeast and east sides of this storm.

Forecast Impacts: Heavy rain with amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected from Friday through this weekend across extreme southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southern Alabama.



TD 15 Moving Through Cabo Verde Islands; Time to Watch the Gulf of Mexico
Jeff Masters, Category 6

October 14, 2019

Tropical Depression 15 was heading northwest at 9 mph on a track that would take it through the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday afternoon and evening. With top sustained winds of just 35 mph at 11 am EDT Tuesday, TD 15 is primarily a heavy rain threat, with total accumulations of 1 - 3 inches expected in Cabo Verde.

Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that TD 15 was a large and poorly organized system, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were an unusually warm 27°C (81°F), and wind shear was moderate, near 10 knots, on Tuesday morning—favorable conditions for development. If TD 15 manages to take advantage of these favorable conditions and intensify into a tropical storm, it would be named Nestor.

TD 15 does not have a lot of time to develop, though, since wind shear is predicted to rise to a high 20 knots on Wednesday morning, and to 40 knots by Thursday morning. This wind shear is very likely to destroy TD 15 by Thursday. TD 15 will not be a threat to any land areas besides the Cabo Verde Islands.

Time to watch the Gulf of Mexico and the Central American Gyre
A seasonal large-scale circulation called a Central American Gyre (CAG) has made its typical autumn appearance. A CAG is a recurring, sprawling area of low pressure that often straddles the nations of Central America, leading to disturbed weather in both the Atlantic and Pacific. A CAG itself is not a tropical cyclone, but pockets of spin can develop within it and rotate out from it, sometimes leading to a tropical depression, tropical storm, or even a hurricane. Catgeory 5 Hurricane Michael of 2018, which devastated Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle, was spawned from an October CAG.

NHC is watching two areas on either side of ths week's CAG. One compact disturbance is centered in the Caribbean roughly near Belize and moving northwest, a track that should put it into Mexico's Bay of Campache by late Wednesday or Thursday. Once there, the disturbance will have a shot at evolving into something apart from the CAG from late this week into early next week as it moves slowly northward across the western Gulf of Mexico. NHC gives this system a 30% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression in the western Gulf over the next five days, mainly between Wednesday and Saturday. A weak reflection of this disturbance appears in the 0Z Tuesday runs of our three top track models—the European, GFS, and UKMET. The system remains poorly organized in all models as it tracks toward the central Gulf Coast over the weekend. If nothing else, an uptick in showers and thunderstorms can be expected if the disturbance holds together.

On the Pacific side, Invest 98E—a much larger and more intense complex of showers and thunderstorms, centered south of Guatemala—is likely to become a tropical depression as it moves roughly parallel to the Pacific coast toward southern Mexico. NHC gives this disturbance an 80% chance of development by Wednesday. Very warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F) and a very moist atmosphere (midlevel relative humidity of 80-85%) will support development, despite moderate wind shear of about 15 knots. The main question by midweek is how much land interaction will impede 98E as the system moves along or onto the coast of Mexico’s Oaxaca state. Longer-range models suggest 98E is unlikely to progress much further offshore toward Baja California.

Regardless of whether either system within the CAG becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall will continue across large parts of Central America, and flooding and mudslides are a real threat, especially across rugged terrain. Rains may intensify into far southern Mexico if the Pacific disturbance strengthens.


CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)




Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 09:23 AM.