Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 18, 2017

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Area wind information


Belize NMS Forecast

October 18, 2017

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

October 18, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave extends from 06N59W to 15N59W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between 56W-61W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 52W-61W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N66W to 17N66W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between 64W-68W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 15N. Isolated moderate convection is from 11N-18N between 62W-69W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N83W to 16N83W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean Sea. Dry NE to E flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery on the southeastern periphery of an upper level ridge anchored near 17N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N-14N between 76W-85W.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean near 17N80W and is providing mostly dry air aloft between 70W- 80W. Scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 79W in association with a tropical wave along 83W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are also N of 16N W of 84W. Farther east...another tropical wave along 66W is providing for widely scattered showers and tstms between 62W-67W...while a third tropical wave remains to the E of Windward Islands along 59W. The third wave carries more active convection that is expected to impact the Lesser Antilles Wednesday through early Thursday. Elsewhere...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Wednesday...gradually increasing across the eastern and central Caribbean by Wednesday night as the pressure gradient strengthens.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

The Atlantic basin has become quiet
Accuweather

10/18/2017

A weak area of low pressure that was designated 92L has moved well north of Bermuda and will link up with a cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic. This front will help take this low pressure system well away from land over the coming days and no tropical development is expected.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet and no new development is expected across the rest of the Atlantic Basin through at least early next week.



120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 17, 2017

Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is A Possibility For Next Week: There continues to be the possibility for some sort of tropical development to occur across the western Caribbean next week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the northeastern United States this coming weekend and causes the barometric pressures to lower over the western Caribbean this weekend into next week. At the same time this is happening, an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to try to push into the Atlantic Basin next week. This combination makes me think that the western Caribbean is definitely an area to watch for potential tropical development.

Current weather analysis indicates that there is a tropical disturbance that is now entering the eastern Caribbean. This tropical disturbance is expected to push westward and will probably reach the southwestern Caribbean this weekend. In addition, another tropical disturbance is currently located over the southwestern Caribbean. This disturbance probably will not develop, although it will be watched closely, and it is expected to push into the eastern Pacific over the next few days. I think that the tropical disturbance that is now located over the eastern Caribbean is the system to keep an eye on for development in the southwestern Caribbean next week.

Looking at the latest model guidance – The GFS model guidance forecasts that a low pressure system will develop over the northwestern Caribbean around next Wednesday or next Thursday that ends up moving to the northeast across the northern Bahamas next weekend and then out into the open Atlantic after that.

The GFS ensemble model guidance members are hinting at tropical development to occur over the western Caribbean around next Wednesday. From there, the GFS ensemble model guidance indicates that the tropical system will remain in the western Caribbean through the end of the month.

The Canadian model guidance forecasts the development of a tropical system in the western Caribbean around Tuesday of next week. From there, the Canadian model guidance forecasts that this tropical system to move to the northeast reaching the northern Bahamas around next Thursday.

The European model guidance has dropped any sort of development like it was forecasting previously. The most it shows in the latest forecast is a broad low pressure system that sits over the southwestern Caribbean next week.

Finally, the European ensemble tropical cyclone probability forecast chart is pointing to a 60 percent chance for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean around the middle part of next week.

Here Are My Thoughts: I have no significant changes to my thoughts that I laid out yesterday.

I do still think that the western Caribbean will be the area to watch for potential tropical development next week. With that said, it remains to be seen where exactly the development will occur and this position will have large implications as to the type of track a tropical system takes.

A southwestern Caribbean development could lead to a track that takes it north and northeastward across Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. On the other hand, development that occurs in the northwestern Caribbean could lead to a track that takes it over western Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and possibly right up the US East Coast.

This is a development idea that I’m keeping an eye on and I’ll have updates for you in the coming days.



The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Thursday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Wednesday.



Watch the Western Caribbean Next Week
Jeff Masters, Category 6

October 17, 2017

Time to watch the southwestern Caribbean next week

The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A broad area of low pressure (92L) that we’ve been tracking over the past week was located near Bermuda, but is poorly organized, and will likely be absorbed by a frontal system on Wednesday. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, and which can increase the odds of tropical cyclone formation when it is strong and located in the proper location, currently favors tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific, but not the Atlantic. However, recent long-range forecasts predict that the MJO can be expected to begin favoring Atlantic tropical cyclone formation by late next week.

The long-range GFS and European models and their ensemble runs have been showing that the waters of the Southwest Caribbean can be expected to serve as the focus for possible development of a new tropical depression late next week, though it is too early to zero in on exactly where or when such a storm might get going. The way this season has gone, we should expect to get at least one more damaging named storm in the Atlantic in 2017; the Southwest Caribbean is the most likely place for such a storm to form.



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image




Last edited by Marty; 53 minutes ago.