Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: May 17, 2021
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
May 17, 2021
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.
USA National Weather Service Forecast
May 17, 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Discussion
...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...
A 1003 mb low pressure center is located near 32N57W, just to the
north of the area, and moving E-NE near 20 kt. Overnight ASCAT
data shortly after 0000 UTC showed SW winds of 30-40 kt across the
south semicircle of this low, that extended to 30N. Expect these
gale-force SW to W winds to move along the northern boundary of
the area between 55W and 58W through 1200 UTC before winds
diminish to 25-30 kt there. Seas of , and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 13 feet should be expected across this area.
...The Caribbean Sea...
Atlantic high pressure is centered across the NE Atlantic and
extends W-SW and weakly across the W Atlantic north of the area.
This is producing a modest pressure gradient, and supporting fresh
to locally strong tradewinds across the southern Caribbean south
of 15N between 64W and 77W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Stable
atmospheric conditions associated with the western side of an
upper level trough continue to produce generally fair weather
east of 80W. A low to mid level trough to the south of 13N is
moving across the Windward Islands this morning and will bring
tropical moisture with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
across the SE Caribbean today and tonight.
The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W across
Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 10N across the Gulf of Uraba and
adjacent waters of Panama east of 79W.
Atlc high pressure ridge NE of the area will shift eastward and
weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly across the basin through
Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri
night as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.
48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
No tropical development expected
May 17, 2021
There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin at this time and none are expected to develop for at least the next several days.
120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Very Slight Possibility Of Tropical Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late Next Week Or Next Weekend
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
May 14, 2021
Even though the next few days is expected to be quiet with no tropical development expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, thereís the very slight possibility that we could see some sort of tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico beginning very late next week.
Some of the model guidance (the GFS model in particular) is forecasting that a piece of energy may be left behind in the area between the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas as a frontal boundary pulls away from the area to the northeast later next week. The GFS model forecasts that this piece of energy will push across the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend and potentially develop into a tropical system. Other guidance such as the Canadian model and the European model suggests this area of disturbed weather will just shear out and not develop at all. Even the GFS ensemble and the European ensemble model guidance arenít showing a whole lot in terms of tropical development chances. With that said, it should be noted that the European ensemble model guidance is showing a scant 5 percent chance for tropical development from the northern Bahamas to the Georgia and South Carolina coast next weekend.
Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the GFS model may be jumping the gun in terms of its forecast for tropical development later next week and next weekend. With that said, itís something that I want to keep an eye on because this newer version of the GFS model did pretty well last year in forecasting tropical development before other guidance. Also, this newer version of the GFS model had a low false positive for tropical development forecasts.
Overall though, I think the chances later next week into next weekend for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico are very low (less than 10 percent).
In addition, I still think that we will definitely have to watch early and mid June for tropical development as an upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushes into the Atlantic. This will help to foster an increase in convection and lead to a higher chance of tropical development.
At the same time this is occurring, we will probably see a weather pattern shift that features a ridge of high pressure over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. This, in turn, will help to lower barometric pressures over the Bahamas and the western Caribbean.
Given all of this, I still think that we may see the first named tropical system of the season during early to probably more like mid June somewhere between the western Caribbean and the Bahamas.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Monday.
Why are there so many Atlantic named storms? Five possible explanations
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections
May 14, 2021
Were the record-setting 30 named storms of the astonishingly brutal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season a one-off random event? Or a portent of a new era of increased named storms for the Atlantic?
The number of Atlantic named storms has unquestionably been on the rise in recent decades. But while hurricane scientists are confident that global warming is making the strongest storms stronger, scientific debate is continuing on how global warming may be affecting the number of tropical cyclones (the catch-all term describing hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms, and tropical depressions). Consider this literature review on what factors may be causing the recent rise in Atlantic named storms. There are, no surprise, more questions than answers, but recent research suggests that we are now in an era of more frequent Atlantic named storms.
One fact is unequivocal: while the number of global tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm strength (one-minute average winds of 39+ mph) has remained roughly constant in recent decades (around 85 named storms per year since 1970), the number of Atlantic named storms has increased significantly. Every 10 years, NOAA updates its definition of what constitutes the ďnormalĒ climate based on the latest data. The long-term averages from the period 1991-2020 had two more named storms and one more hurricane than in the 20 years from 1981 to 2010, the National Hurricane Center tweeted in early April, increasing to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes also increased, from 2.8 to 3.2 per year, but this increase was obscured because the totals were rounded.
For the past 30 years, 1991-2020, compared to the previous 30 years, 1961-1990, the difference is even more stark. There were an average of 10 named storms, six hurricanes, and two intense hurricanes between 1961 and 1990. So the period 1991-2020 had a 44% increase in named storms, 20% increase in hurricanes, and 60% increase in major hurricanes.
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