Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 23, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, June 23, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 23, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Cindy, located inland over southern Arkansas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1010 mb low centered S of the Cape Verde Islands near 13N24W. The wave axis extends from 19N22W to the low to 06N24W and it has been moving at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air around the low while moderate moisture with patches of dry air is S of the low. Meteosat enhanced imagery confirm the presence of Saharan dry air and dust around the low where there is lack of convection. Upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms S of the low from 07N to 11N between 21W and 27W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1010 mb low centered near 09N43W. Its axis extends from 14N43W to the low to 04N43W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear S of 11N, is mainly in a very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and tstms from 0N to 05N W of 41W, and isolated showers within 210 nm of the low center.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 16N62W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 5-10 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from 21N84W to inland Honduras and Nicaragua, moving west at 20 knots within the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of dry air ahead of the wave axis, which limit the convection to scattered to isolated showers S of 22N. Scattered showers and tstms are E of the wave axis from 13N to 22N between 78W and 85W.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean ahead of a tropical wave along 85W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are E of the wave axis from 15N to 22N. See the tropical waves section for further details. The upper level low also supports scattered to isolated showers over western Cuba and across the Windward Passage. A 1009 mb low is over NW Colombia linked to the EPAC monsoon trough, which support isolated showers 120 nm off the Colombia coast S of 11N. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the wave while moderate trades dominate elsewhere. The upper- level low is forecast to move northwest toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday with the tropical wave moving westward into the East Pacific waters during the weekend. Increased probability of convection and precipitation is expected across Central America and southern Mexico through this period.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Rainstorm Cindy brings heavy rain to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic tonight


Tropical Rainstorm Cindy is currently centered just southeast of Little Rock, Arkansas, and will move northeastward across the Mississippi River later this morning. The center will then cross Kentucky this afternoon and evening before moving across the central Appalachians tonight and through the mid-Atlantic tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, the center will lose its identity off the Jersey Shore as it becomes absorbed into a frontal system and moves away from the United States.

Heavy rainfall with rates of 1-2 inches per hour will continue early this morning across portions of northeastern Louisiana and eastern Arkansas, causing localized flash flooding. The heaviest rain will then shift eastward this afternoon into Kentucky, northern Tennessee, far southern Indiana and southern Ohio. In some areas near or just south of the Ohio River, 4 to as much as 8 inches of rain could fall this afternoon and evening. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and some roadways being rendered impassible for a time.

By tonight, the heaviest rain will shift eastward into West Virginia and the higher terrain of western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. About 2-4 inches of rain can fall across this area tonight, leading to localized flash flooding.

By tomorrow morning, rainfall associated with Cindy will be waning and streaking eastward quickly across portions of New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania. Any rain associated with Cindy will be dissipated and off the shore of the East Coast by tomorrow afternoon.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we see no support for further tropical development across the basin through at least the middle of next week.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

No Tropical Development Is Expected Throughout The Rest Of The Atlantic Basin For At Least The Next Few Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

June 22, 2017

Across The Atlantic Basin – Even though tropical development is not expected through at least this weekend and probably beyond this across much of the Atlantic Basin, there are a few items that I am keeping an eye on.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa near 40 West Longitude is producing scattered deep thunderstorm activity. An analysis of the environmental conditions indicate that this tropical wave is located in an area of 10 knots or less of wind shear. Even though the wind shear environment is favorable for development, it appears that there is an area of dry air located to the west of this tropical wave and this is probably why none of the model guidance are forecasting tropical development. This particular tropical disturbance is forecast to track right across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday bringing squally weather with it.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, it looks like a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin for the rest of this month into at least early July. This means that the atmosphere will have a much harder time producing a tropical cyclone across the Atlantic. I don’t believe the GFS model’s forecast of a northwestward moving tropical cyclone that tracks near the Cape Verde Islands early next week and north of the Lesser Antilles around the 4th of July. The reason why is because there is very dry air north of 15 North Latitude and the wind shear conditions are very unfavorable and the GFS model forecast just doesn’t make sense.

Looking towards mid-July and beyond, the very long range CFS model guidance continues to hint at tropical development to the east of the Lesser Antilles during the week of July 10th. In addition to this, the GFS model guidance is now starting to hint at some sort of tropical development to possibly occur between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa around July 5th and 6th. While I think that the GFS model may be jumping the gun on forecasting tropical development too early in July, I do think the chances for tropical development will start to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa beginning around July 15th as a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin around that time.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Monday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

A potential African wave to watch next week
Jeff Masters, Category 6

June 22, 2017

The GFS model is predicting the potential development of a new tropical depression early next week in the far Eastern Atlantic, from a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday. Our other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation--the European and UKMET models--are not yet on board with this forecast, and NHC is currently not mentioning any potential for new Atlantic tropical cyclone formation in the coming five days.

[Tuesday Evening] Cindy Bringing Flooding Threat to the North Gulf Coast; Bret Dissipating Over the SE Caribbean

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 06:06 AM.