Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 19, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

November 19, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

November 19, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

As of 0900 UTC, a fast moving cold front over the N Gulf of Mexico extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W, to the NW Gulf near 24N96W, to N of Tampico Mexico near 22.5N98W. Gale force northerly winds are W of 90W and N of front, with seas to 8 ft. The cold front in 24 hours will extend from S Florida to the SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds will persist for the next 24 hours over portions of the Gulf. See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A 1007 mb low is centered near the N tip of Colombia at 13.5N71W. A surface trough extends NE from the low through the Mona Passage to the Atlantic near 21N64W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the low from 12N-17N between 68W-72W, to include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 360 nm E of the trough axis, to include Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is enhancing the showers and convection over the central Caribbean Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift E and persist for the next 48 hours.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic basin remains free of any organized tropical features


The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical development is expected for at least the next 24-48 hours.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Low Pressure Over The Southwestern & Central Caribbean Will Need To Be Monitored For Possible Tropical Development This Weekend Into Next Week As It Moves Slowly Northward
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

November 17, 2017

Also Will Have To Watch For Low Pressure Development Over The Gulf Of Mexico Late Next Week That Could Bring Multiple Weather Hazards, Including Strong Winds & Rough Seas Over The Gulf Of Mexico & Possible Severe Weather Across The Florida Peninsula

We are closely watching two potential systems that will require close monitoring over the next week or so.

The first system is an area of disturbed weather that is located over the southwestern and central Caribbean is producing shower and thunderstorm activity that stretches from the southwestern Caribbean northeastward to Hispaniola and near the Turks and Caicos Islands. In addition, weather analysis indicates that an area of low pressure may be trying to form near the northwestern coast of Colombia. The environmental conditions aren’t very favorable for development due to strong wind shear over the central and northern Caribbean, but there is an area of 10 to 20 knots of wind shear in the area where the low pressure may be forming over the far southwestern Caribbean.

We will need to keep a close eye on the low pressure system that is expected to move very slowly northward from the southwestern Caribbean this weekend to the central Caribbean just east of Jamaica by early next week. By the middle and end of next week, it appears that this low pressure system may become entrained and possibly absorbed by a eastward moving upper level trough of low pressure and our focus may then shift to another low pressure system that could form over the Gulf of Mexico late next week into next weekend.

I think the development chances of the southwestern Caribbean low pressure system are around 20-30 percent this weekend into very early next week.

Even if we see no development from this area of disturbed weather, heavy rainfall is a possibility from today through this weekend into early next week across northwestern Colombia, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Rainfall amounts over the next few days will average between 2 and 4 inches.

For the northern Leeward Islands, significant rainfall is not expected from this weather system.

The second potential system we are going to be closely watching is the possible formation of a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico on either Wednesday or Thanksgiving Day. This low pressure system has the potential to move east-northeast and northeastward reaching the Florida Panhandle and north Florida around next Saturday.

This forecast of low pressure development is supported by all of the model guidance, including the GFS, European and Canadian models.

This potential low pressure system late next week and next weekend could bring multiple weather hazards, including strong winds and rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico and severe weather across the Florida Peninsula.

Marine Hazards For The Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday To Friday Of Next Week: Gale force winds of up to 45 knots and seas of up to 10-12 feet are forecast to impact the western and northern Gulf of Mexico starting on Wednesday and continue through Thursday of next week. These gale force winds and rough seas will spread into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during next Thursday night and next Friday.

Possible Severe Weather For The Florida Peninsula Next Weekend: Depending on the exact track of this low pressure system, some severe weather is possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout Saturday and Sunday of next weekend. A further south track that takes the low pressure system over central Florida would lead to the severe weather being confined across south Florida and the Florida Keys next weekend. On the other hand, a further north track across north Florida and the Florida Panhandle would mean the severe weather would occur across central and north Florida. Needless to say, the severe weather threat will be something that will be monitored closely, especially given it will be a Holiday weekend.

96L Southwest of the Azores May Become Subtropical Storm Sean
Jeff Masters, Category 6

November 13, 2017

A non-tropical low-pressure system with the potential to develop into a subtropical storm was located in the east-central Atlantic about 600 miles southwest of the Azores Islands on Monday morning. This system was designated Invest 96L by NHC over the weekend. The low is moving slowly northeastward towards the Azores, which is the only land area that needs to be concerned with this storm.

Conditions were marginally favorable for development on Monday, with moderate wind shear of 15 knots and ocean temperatures of 24°C (75°F). These temperatures are probably too cool to allow transition of 96L to a fully tropical storm, but may be warm enough to allow 96L to become a subtropical storm deserving of a name. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that 96L was already beginning to take on some characteristics of a subtropical storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms located in a curved band more than 100 miles from the cloud-free center of circulation. In their 7 am EST  Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 50%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Sean.

Watching the Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation next week

The waters of the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua is an area we will need to watch for development beginning next week. Waters there are plenty warm enough to support a hurricane (30°C, or 86°F), and the long-range GFS model has been predicting low pressures and reduced wind shear supportive of tropical cyclones over this region for next week. Recall that last year, Category 3 Hurricane Otto formed in this region and hit Nicaragua on Thanksgiving Day—November 24.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; 9 hours ago.