Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 17, 2018

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Area wind information


Belize NMS Forecast

October 17, 2018

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

October 17, 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N91W. This low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico. This weather system is expected to move westward with time. The probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please, refer to your local meteorological service for specific information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern.

A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W. The stationary front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. The forecast consists of NW-to-N GALE-force winds from 25N southward from the front westward. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 14 feet. Expect the GALE-force winds to continue for nearly the next 48 hours.

...Tropical Waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/26W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward. It is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 21N between 50W and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 20N and SE Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about heavy rainfall that is associated with the Central American Gyre, and the 1001 mb low pressure center that is in Mexico, just outside the border with Guatemala, near 16N91W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic void of tropical cyclones
Accuweather

October 17, 2018

As of Wednesday morning, EDT, there were no organized tropical systems and none are expected to form over the next five days.

Low pressure over Central America at one time contained the potential for development in the western Caribbean, but with a majority of the convection located over land, the threat for development has diminished. Heavy shower and thunderstorm activity will likely continue over the next couple of days and result in flooding and mudslides across the region.

A tropical wave located off the Lesser Antilles will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms over the next day or two, however wind shear is tearing any convection apart and no organization is expected from the system.

Another tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is also being negatively impacted by shear, and should scatter convection and prevent organization over the coming days.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

A Storm System May Bring Hazardous Marine Conditions To The Northwestern & Northern Gulf Of Mexico From Tuesday To Friday Of Next Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 17, 2018

A stationary front now stretched across the western and northern Gulf of Mexico will bring occasional heavy rainfall throughout the rest of this week through this weekend along mostly the lower and middle Texas coast. It will not rain all the time, but therewill be heavy rain from time to time over the next several days.

At this time, it appears that this low pressure system may end up being more non-tropical than tropical, but nonetheless, there is the potential for hazardous marine conditions across the northern Gulf of Mexico during Wednesday and Thursday of next week with up to 30-35 mph wind gusts, rough seas and some heavy rainfall. Some of this weather, including locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, may also impact coastal areas from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday of next week and this is something that will need to be watched.

The Canadian model's forecast of a tropical storm in the southwestern and western Caribbean next week does not look realistic at this time. For one, none of the other reliable model guidance members or ensemble model members show it and two, the environmental conditions do not look particularly favorable across the western Caribbean.



94L moving inland over Belize without developing
Jeff Masters, Category 6

October 16, 2018

A broad area of low pressure (94L) over the southwestern Caribbean near the northwest coast of Honduras was moving inland over Central America late Tuesday morning. Satellite images and Belize radar showed that 94L did not have an organized surface circulation, and the system has run out of time to develop into a tropical depression. Heavy rains from 94L will spread inland into Central America Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing 2 4 of rain with isolated higher amounts.


CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)




Last edited by Marty; Yesterday at 07:52 AM.