Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: July 20, 2018

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Area wind information


Belize NMS Forecast

July 20, 2018

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

July 20, 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave is off the coast of west Africa along 20W from 18N to 06N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Shallow moisture and upper level diffluence is supporting widely scattered moderate convection within 180 nm of the wave axis. The wave has Saharan dry air and dust further N and W of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N35W to 10N36W to 04N35W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is moving across an extensive Saharan Air Layer Outbreak with dry air and dust hindering convection.

A low amplitude tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N53W to 02N54W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate comvection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 71W from 21N to 09N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer wind shear environment. Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. Isolated moderate convection is also along the S coast of Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over SW Haiti near 18N74W enhancing convection. RGB imagery from GOES-16 shows a thin layer of Saharan Dust moving across the central and western portions of the basin. Expect the wave to traverse Hispaniola tonight and move to the W Caribbean Friday and Saturday, with convection. More convection will prevail over the SW basin Sunday primarily due to the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue over the central basin through the weekend. Near gale force winds will be likely, however, along the coast of Colombia this weekend.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development



Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Still quiet across the Atlantic
Accuweather

7/20/2018

The tropical Atlantic basin will remain quiet for at least the next four or five days.

A large plume of Saharan air couple with strong westerly wind shear continues to inhibit development in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. Strong wind shear is also present over much of the Caribbean as well as the southern Gulf of Mexico.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

A Coastal Storm Is Likely For The Coastal Mid-Atlantic & Southern New England This Weekend Bringing Heavy Rainfall & Gusty Winds; This Storm System Will Need To Be Watched For Signs Of Tropical Development
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

July 19, 2017

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the South and North Carolina coast during the day on Friday and then intensify as it moves to near the outer banks of North Carolina by Friday night. From there, the coastal storm system is expected to move quickly northward and hug the coast from southeastern Virginia late Saturday to southern New England by Sunday morning. This storm system is expected to bring a period of heavy rainfall with amounts of 2-3 inches, thunderstorms and gusty winds with wind gusts of up to 40 mph first to coastal parts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Friday, then across coastal parts of the Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey on Saturday. A period of heavy rain with amounts of 1.50 to 3 inches, thunderstorms and gusty winds of up to 40-50 mph are expected across Long Island and much of southern New England on Saturday night into the day on Sunday.

Here Are My Thoughts: As I mentioned yesterday, I think it's going to be all about location, location, location. Should the low pressure system take a track right along the coast from eastern North Carolina to New York City, then I don't think we'll see any sort of transformation into a tropical system. On the other hand, a low pressure system that moves a little further offshore from the outer banks of North Carolina to either Long Island, Block Island or Cape Cod, then I think we would see this system develop into either a sub-tropical storm a tropical storm.



The Tropics Go Quiet; Beryl Not Expected to Redevelop
Jeff Masters, Category 6

July 13, 2018

For the first time since June 27, the tropics are quiet globally. There are no named tropical cyclones left to talk about, after Hurricane Chris was downgraded to a post-tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday. Chris hit Newfoundland, Canada on Thursday evening, bringing sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to the capital of Newfoundland, St. John’s, at 10:30 NDT Thursday. A 24-hour rain amount of 0.15” (3.8 mm) fell there. Cape Race, Newfoundland reported sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 51 mph, at 8:30 pm NDT Thursday, with a 24-hour precipitation amount of 0.38” (10 mm). Chris’s heaviest rains fell more to the north and west than expected, with Gander recording 2.99” (76 mm) and Bonavista getting 2.40” (61 mm). There are no reports of serious flooding or wind damage in Canada from the storm.

Ex-Beryl unlikely to redevelop

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl were located about 300 miles west of Bermuda on Friday morning, and were headed north-northeast at about 10 mph. Satellite images on Friday morning showed that Beryl's remnants now had a surface circulation, but high wind shear of 25 knots was keeping this circulation poorly defined. The associated heavy thunderstorm activity was disorganized. Beryl’s remains are expected to move north-northeastward at about 10 mph through Sunday. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be a high 25 – 40 knots during that period, and this high shear will very likely keep ex-Beryl from developing, despite the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that the system will be over. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Beryl 2-day and 5-day odds of regeneration of 20%.



CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)




Last edited by Marty; 4 hours ago.