Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 22, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, June 22, 2017

At 6am, Tropical Storm Cindy was located near 30.5N, 93.7W, and was moving to the N at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 22, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cindy, located just inland along the Texas/Louisiana border.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...
Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas within the last couple of hours. The center of Tropical Storm Cindy at 22/0900 UTC is near 29.9N 93.6W, or about 25 NM WSW of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Cindy is moving N at 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 KT with gusts to 45 KT. The minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are N of 27N W of 90W as well as N of 21N between 84W and 90W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...Tropical waves...
A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa last night. Its axis extends from 12N16W to 03N20W. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 07N to 13N E of 22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N38W to 0N41W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of middle level divergence. These factors support numerous to scattered heavy showers and tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W.

A tropical wave is within 150 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its axis extends from 16N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is entering a region of unfavorable wind shear. CIRA LPW imagery show patches of dry air in the northern wave environment, which are limiting the convection to scattered to isolated showers N of 13N. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of 13N, mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper level low centered NE of Honduras and a ridge centered over Puerto Rico generate divergent flow aloft ahead of a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, thus supporting showers and tstms between 73W and 80W. See the waves section for further details. In the SW basin, the eastern North Pacific monsoon trough continues to support scattered to numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 14N W of 76W, including inland Central America. Fresh to strong winds are in the central basin associated with the wave. Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Honduras while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. A new tropical wave will enter the E Caribbean later today. Scattered showers will be associated with this wave, especially in the NE basin.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Tropical Storm Cindy makes landfall


Tropical Storm Cindy is located at 30.5° N, -93.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts to 50 mph, moving N 12 mph, pressure 29.36 in / 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Cindy has made landfall at 4:30 EDT this morning close to Cameron, Louisiana. Heavy rain and gusty winds continue to batter southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts between 2-3 inches have already been reported southeast of Houston, Texas, this morning close to the center of circulation. As the circulation continues onshore, gusty winds between 40-50 mph can be expected just to the east and northeast of the low pressure center.

Flooding rain continues to inundate Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northwestern Georgia as the outer bands of Cindy and copious tropical moisture surge northward. Total rainfall amounts across southern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, southern Alabama, and the western panhandle of Florida will range from 4-8 inches for many, but isolated locations will receive upwards of 10 or more inches of rain for the duration of this system. This will lead to potentially life-threatening flooding for many, especially across the low-lying areas. The heaviest rain will primarily be located across Alabama, Tennessee, the western Florida Panhandle, Louisiana, and eastern Texas. Additionally, isolated tornadoes will be possible across southern Louisiana and Mississippi today as the outer bands continue to move onshore.

Gusty winds can be expected near and just to the east of the low-level center. Winds will gust between 40-50 mph which can lead to downed power lines and some property damage. As Cindy progresses off to the north, winds will steadily subside as the storm weakens. Gusty winds can still be expected even into tonight and Friday as the circulation moves into the Tennessee Valley.

Heavy rainfall will move into Arkansas and Tennessee heading into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches can be expected, along with some stronger thunderstorms across northern Mississippi and Tennessee. Any of these thunderstorms can produce 2- to 3-inch-per-hour rainfall rates, leading to potential flash flooding.

Elsewhere across the Tropical Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring a few tropical waves, but none are anticipated to develop at this time.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Tropical Storm Cindy Has Made Landfall In Southwestern Louisiana; No Tropical Development Is Expected Throughout The Rest Of The Atlantic Basin For At Least The Next Few Days
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

June 22, 2017

Tropical Storm Cindy:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 29.9 North Latitude, 93.6 West Longitude or about 30 miles to the west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
Maximum Winds: 40 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 Millibars or 29.36 Inches.
Forward Movement: North at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Tropical Storm Cindy has made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas according to radar imagery and surface weather reports. Cindy is now expected to weaken as it moves northward across western Louisiana and into southern Arkansas today and tonight. By Friday into Saturday, the remnants of Cindy are expected to become absorbed into a frontal system as it pushes eastward towards the eastern United States.

Even though Cindy is expected to weaken, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall with significant to major life-threatening flash flooding across parts of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast as well as across the southeastern and eastern United States. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated rainfall amounts of up to 12 inches are expected across eastern Texas, western and central Louisiana and southern and eastern Arkansas today through Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated rainfall amounts of up to 8 inches are expected across southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama and the extreme western Florida Panhandle from today through Friday morning.

Rain is expected to overspread parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys today with rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches expected today through Friday.

In addition, a few tornadoes are expected today through tonight across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as well as across the central U.S. Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere Across The Atlantic Basin – Even though tropical development is not expected through at least this weekend and probably beyond this across much of the Atlantic Basin, there are a few items that I am keeping an eye on.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa near 40 West Longitude is producing scattered deep thunderstorm activity. An analysis of the environmental conditions indicate that this tropical wave is located in an area of 10 knots or less of wind shear. Even though the wind shear environment is favorable for development, it appears that there is an area of dry air located to the west of this tropical wave and this is probably why none of the model guidance are forecasting tropical development. This particular tropical disturbance is forecast to track right across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday bringing squally weather with it.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, it looks like a downward pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic Basin for the rest of this month into at least early July. This means that the atmosphere will have a much harder time producing a tropical cyclone across the Atlantic. I don’t believe the GFS model’s forecast of a northwestward moving tropical cyclone that tracks near the Cape Verde Islands early next week and north of the Lesser Antilles around the 4th of July. The reason why is because there is very dry air north of 15 North Latitude and the wind shear conditions are very unfavorable and the GFS model forecast just doesn’t make sense.

Looking towards mid-July and beyond, the very long range CFS model guidance continues to hint at tropical development to the east of the Lesser Antilles during the week of July 10th. In addition to this, the GFS model guidance is now starting to hint at some sort of tropical development to possibly occur between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa around July 5th and 6th. While I think that the GFS model may be jumping the gun on forecasting tropical development too early in July, I do think the chances for tropical development will start to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa beginning around July 15th as a new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin around that time.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Monday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

Tropical Storm Cindy Pushes Toward Central Gulf Coast
Jeff Masters, Category 6

June 21, 2017

A high risk of life-threatening flooding continues on Wednesday over parts of the central Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Cindy lumbers toward shore. The greatest flood threat will be across low-lying areas of far southern Mississippi and Alabama, according to the NWS/NOAA Weather Prediction Center. A second area with a moderate flood risk lies across far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

As of 8:00 am EDT Wednesday, Cindy was centered about 200 miles southeast of Galveston, TX, moving northwest at 8 mph. Cindy’s top sustained winds were estimated at 60 mph. Models are in general agreement that Cindy will continue northwest and gradually arc northward. The official outlook from the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center early Wednesday brought Cindy ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border on Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm warnings were in effect from San Luis Pass, TX, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan Houston and New Orleans. Most of the impacts from Cindy will be near or east of where its center makes landfall.

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to dissipate by Thursday before it reaches the western end of the Caribbean.

WU tracking map for TS Bret, 15Z 6/20/2017
Figure 5.  WU tracking map for Tropical Storm Bret as of 11:00 am EDT Tuesday, June 20, 2017.

[Tuesday Evening] Cindy Bringing Flooding Threat to the North Gulf Coast; Bret Dissipating Over the SE Caribbean

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; 4 hours ago.