Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: August 19, 2018

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Belize NMS Forecast

August 19, 2018

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

August 19, 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 07N-18N along 25W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a strong deep layer environment and is being affected by dry and dust air intrusion in the lower levels as depicted in GOES-16 water vapor and enhanced IR imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 16W-25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 06N-18N along 42W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is entering a low deep layer wind shear environment, however, it is being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust that is hindering convection.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-18N along 66W, moving W at 15 kt. Both CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery show the northern wave environment being affected by low level dry air limiting precipitation over the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are, however, over portions of the Windward Islands.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending from 08N-20N along 82W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment and in a mostly a dry enviromnent. Shallow moisture in the northern wave environment and diffluent wind aloft support scattered showers and tstms from 17N-21N between 76W-81W.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Hispaniola, N Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, E Nicaragua, and E Honduras. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from the Atlantic to the northern half of the basin support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. In addition, expect showers and convection to persist over the SW Caribbean for the next several days.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Quiet across the Atlantic; Some rain and wind across the British Isles from what was once Ernesto
Accuweather

8/19/2018

There are no named tropical systems in the Atlantic at this time and no new development is anticipated for at least the next three to five days.

What remains of Ernesto has combined with another non-tropical system and will bring some gusty winds and rain to parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England today.

August 19, 2017

A tropical wave now crossing the western coast of Africa is an item that I'm going to keep an eye on, however, conditions across much of the eastern and central Atlantic are unfavorable for development due to an abundance of sinking air. The reason why I think it is a good idea to keep an eye on this tropical wave is because it could be in the vicinity of the US Southeast Coast in about 10 days to two weeks from now where conditions may be more favorable for development.

The model guidance, including the GFS, Canadian and European models, all indicate that the energy and moisture from this tropical wave will be very near the eastern Bahamas by August 28 and then near the US Southeast Coast by around September 2 or 3. We will then have to keep an eye on the very real potential for tropical development in-close to the US Southeast Coast. I will cover this potential a lot more in the next section of this discussion.

The reason why tropical waves pushing off of the coast of Africa are falling apart quickly is because the atmospheric state across the central and eastern Atlantic isn't favorable. The combination of dry, dusty air and higher than average barometric pressures are leading to a unfavorable state in the atmosphere for tropical development.

With that said, the barometric pressures across the African continent are beginning to fall. This says to me that we should start to see a uptick in tropical disturbance activity pushing off of the coast of Africa within the next week to ten days or so. The latest long range model guidance are now beginning to see this potential with last night's GFS model forecasting a full-fledged tropical cyclone in the eastern Tropical Atlantic at the very beginning of September and the European EPS model showing tropical development in the eastern Atlantic at the end of this month and the beginning of next month.

While this hurricane season has been the complete opposite of last hurricane season, which is great news so far, I am NOT about to pull the plug on this season as I do think we will see a fairly busy September in terms of tropical cyclones with this possibly continuing into part of October.

Ernesto Goes Tropical
Jeff Masters, Category 6

August 16, 2018

With little time to spare, Subtropical Storm Ernesto became Tropical Storm Ernesto on Thursday afternoon as it headed toward the chilly waters of the far North Atlantic. As of 3 PM EDT, the newly reclassified Ernesto was located midway between far eastern Canada and the Azores, or about 650 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The broad storm was heading northeast at 18 mph across the open North Atlantic.

Christened as a subtropical storm on Wednesday, Ernesto developed a more symmetric field of convection (showers and thunderstorms) and more pronounced banding near its center on Thursday, which prompted the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC) to reclassify the system. Ernesto remained a large but relatively weak system on Thursday afternoon: its top sustained winds were up to only 45 mph, though winds of 40 mph extended out as far as 160 miles to the east and southeast. Ernesto was located less than 200 miles from the track of last week’s short-lived Tropical Storm Debby, another relatively weak cyclone that was first named as a subtropical storm.

A new disturbance heads for Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, dubbed Invest 99L and located about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands at 8 am EDT Thursday morning, bears watching as it heads west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in this region were near 28.5°C (83°F), and wind shear was a moderate 10 – 20 knots, conditions favorable for development. There is a large area of very dry air, associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), just to the north of the wave, and this dry air will retard development. Satellite images Thursday morning showed that 99L had a moderate amount of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity was sparse and disorganized.

The 18Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 99L would be moving into a steadily drier environment, with the relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere falling from 65% on Thursday to around 50% by late Saturday. The 0Z Thursday runs of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS, and UKMET models, did not develop 99L. About 30% of the 50 members of the 0Z Thursday European model ensemble and 5% of the 20 members of the 0Z Thursday GFS model ensemble supported development, but all of these forecasts showed the system dying by Sunday in the eastern Caribbean—a region nicknamed the “hurricane graveyard” for its well-documented effects on incipient systems, especially early in the season. In its 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 20%, respectively, which implies there is very little chance of 99L becoming a depression after Day 2 (Saturday).

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