Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: November 30, 2020

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Belize NMS Forecast

November 30, 2020

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

November 30, 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large non-tropical low pressure system located near the Madeira Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander during the next day or so. and it could acquire subtropical characteristics during that time. After that, however, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical formation, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

A large non-tropical low pressure centered near the Madeira Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander through Tue and could acquire subtropical characteristics during that time. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless of development, this system should cause strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday. Gale force winds are occurring with this low. This low has a medium chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Some strong thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of this front within about 200 nm of the Florida Big Bend coast, otherwise, scattered moderate showers extend along and just behind the front into the central Gulf of Mexico. This cold front and associated convection will continue moving SE through the Gulf today and exit SE of the basin this evening. Gales will develop shortly in the western Bay of Campeche and within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. These gales will persist into tonight. Elsewhere, strong N winds and building seas can be expected in the wake of the cold front. Conditions will improve Tue.

...Tropical Waves...

None currently.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel are associated with a surface trough that is located in the western Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also located over the SW Carribbean S of 13N and E of 76W, in association with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough and low pressure centered along the northern coast of Colombia. This low is aiding in locally strong trade winds off the NE coast of Colombia this morning.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into late week, except for strong NE winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia this morning. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas Tue and Tue night.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Watching an area in the far eastern Atlantic
Accuweather

November 30, 2020

There are no organized tropical features across the Atlantic basin at this time.

However, we are watching an area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic several hundred miles to the northeast of the Azores. This developing low is forecast to move southward during the next few days into an environment somewhat more conducive for subtropical development. If the low pressure area can stall north of the Canary Islands for a time over marginally warm water, it could have enough time to become a subtropical storm later this week.

Additionally, recent computer guidance suggests a broad area of low pressure may try to develop in the coming days across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and move westward to the north of Panama later this week.

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Monday, Nov. 30, these two areas will need to be watched into early December. Formation can occur and has occurred in the past after the official end of the season.

There are no current threats related to Belize, and no recent posts related to Central America or Belize.
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
November 20, 2019

There are no current threats related to Belize, and no recent posts related to Central America or Belize.
Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

November 19, 2020

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)