Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: October 22, 2018

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Belize NMS Forecast

October 22, 2018

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

October 22, 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Tropical Waves...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W from 05N-21N, moving west at 10 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 10N, affecting eastern Venezuela.

A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 88W and south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. At this time, scattered moderate convection is present over the EPAC waters, where the wave meets with the monsoon trough.

...The Caribbean Sea...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for details.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection is south of 10N mainly affecting Venezuela.

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse late tonight in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. By early Tue afternoon, these winds diminish to fresh speeds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish to the gentle intensity through Thu night. The tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean will slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. East to southeast gentle to moderate winds will follow the wave.

48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

Atlantic Basin remains quiet
Accuweather

October 22, 2018

The Atlantic basin remains devoid of any organized tropical features at this time. There are no signs of tropical development across the basin for the next several days. Environmental conditions across much of the basin are currently not conducive for tropical development. Computer projections of strong vertical wind shear and dry, stable air cover large regions of the basin. These hostile environmental conditions are expected to remain in place during the next 7 to 10 days. Based on this information, the Atlantic Basin is expected to remain free of any organized tropical features through this week.

October 22, 2018

An area of low pressure is expected to form across the western Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and then track across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. From there, this low pressure system is forecast to strengthen as it moves up the US East Coast this weekend bringing heavy rain to the I-95 corridor and possibly snow to the interior northeast US. The model guidance have some differences as to both the timing of this storm system and its exact track. On one side, the UKMET and European model guidance forecast a faster evolution of this storm bringing this storm from the central Gulf Coast on Thursday to the South and North Carolina coastline by Friday evening to western New England by Sunday morning.

The GFS model, on the other hand, forecasts a slower, a little further offshore and colder evolution of this storm. It forecasts this storm to move from the northern Gulf Coast Thursday evening to near Cape Hatteras on Saturday morning to the Gulf of Maine by Sunday night. This sort of track would lead to a coastal rainstorm, but moderate to heavy snow across inland parts of the northeastern United States.

At this point, I think a storm track somewhere in the middle of these two model guidance camps seems most reasonable right now.

This means that low pressure will remain nearly stationary over the western Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday before moving eastward across the northernmost Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. From there, this low pressure system is expected to move up the US East Coast this weekend from near the North Carolina coast on Saturday to just south of New England on Sunday into northern New England on Monday.

No Recent Relevant Caribbean Tropical Weather Posts Since October 16
Jeff Masters, Category 6

October 16, 2018

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)