Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: April 26, 2017

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Area wind information

Belize NMS Forecast

6:00 AM in Belize, April 26, 2017

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 5 days.

We have come to the official end of the 2016 hurricane season. The season turned out above average activity as fifteen named storms formed, of which seven became hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status. That is category three, four or five on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. The strongest was Matthew which reached a peak intensity of 160mph, while heavy rainfall affected the country late during the season as Hurricane Otto crossed the Central American mainland. Earl, a category one hurricane crosed the country on August 3rd with-out any loss of life, but left a trail of destruction in the Agriculture and Tourism industry.

Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

USA National Weather Service Forecast

April 26, 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

No tropical disturbances.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...The Caribbean Sea...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32n73w in the Atlantic Ocean, to 24n69w, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean Sea near 15n65w, into NE Venezuela. A cold front passes through 32n71w in the Atlantic Ocean, to 27n73w. A dissipating cold front continues from 27n73w, to the Bahamas near 23n77w. A pre-frontal trough is along 29n69w 25n70w 21n72w. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18n northward between 60w and 70w. Other convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16n to 20n between 62w and 78w, and from 12n to 14n between 56w in the Atlantic Ocean and 63w in the Caribbean Sea. No 24-hour rainfall totals are listed for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc.

Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook

Weather Underground Caribbean Forecast

Will return in June, 2017

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Infrared Satellite in Belize City

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Officially Starts June 1

4/22/2017 2:09:58 PM

This product is scheduled to resume on a daily basis on June 1, 2017. However, if additional early 2017 season tropical development is expected this product will be updated until the tropical feature has died.

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Could We See Caribbean Tropical Development During The First Half Of May? It's Possible
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

April 25, 2017

Caribbean Tropical Development Is Possible During The First Half Of May: The long range operational GFS model and its ensemble members continue to strongly hint at the potential for tropical development to occur somewhere in the Caribbean during the first 2 weeks of May. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the idea of tropical development posed by the GFS model guidance may not be so far fetched. The reason why is because the long range weather pattern could become favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean as we get into early May.

First things first though – Do not concentrate on exactly where the GFS model is forecasting tropical development to occur in the Caribbean. The reason why is because the area of the Caribbean the GFS model is forecasting tropical development to occur will likely change often over the next couple of weeks. For instance last night’s GFS model forecast showed tropical development in the eastern Caribbean that impacts the Lesser Antilles around May 6th to May 9th and also eastern Pacific tropical development during the week of May 8th. Fast forward to the most recent forecast of the GFS model which now forecasts tropical development in the western Caribbean during the week of May 8th.

The GFS ensemble model guidance is of no help as it forecasts overall lowering barometric pressures and increased storminess across the entire Caribbean during early May. It does forecast that the western Caribbean and the easternmost Caribbean are areas that may be problem areas starting around May 5th and continuing into the week of May 8th.

Turning to the other model guidance – The Canadian model guidance is now starting to show the development of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean in about 10 days from now (around May 4th into May 5th). The European model guidance has yet to come on board with this type of storminess and lowering pressures over the western Caribbean.

My Thoughts Are That I do think that the overall weather pattern starting between May 5th and May 8th and continuing until about May 15th will be favorable for tropical development across some part of the Caribbean. In addition, I think that there is a higher chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean rather than the eastern Caribbean.

So, all-in-all, I think there is a 5 to 10 percent chance that we will see tropical development in the western Caribbean between May 8th and May 15th. It needs to be pointed out that it wouldn’t take much of a change in the weather pattern for this tropical development to occur in the eastern Pacific instead. With that said, if we start to see consistency and support in the weather data that points to western Caribbean tropical development between May 8th and May 15th, then the chances for tropical development would need to be increased.

I will be monitoring the risk for tropical development in the western Caribbean closely and will continue to have updates for you. Our next update will likely be issued late this week or early this weekend.

The Short, Early Life of Tropical Storm Arlene
Jeff Masters, Category 6

April 21, 2017, 7:22 AM

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a premature start on Thursday, April 20, with the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene. Originally designated a subtropical depression by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Wednesday, Arlene was reclassified as a tropical depression on Thursday, and its top sustained winds reached 40 knots (45 mph) at 5:00 pm EDT Thursday, enough to qualify it as Tropical Storm Arlene.

Top winds in Arlene were increased to 50 mph on Thursday night, based on partial data from Arlene’s periphery gathered by the ASCAT scatterometer. Subsequent ASCAT data on Friday morning from Arlene’s center suggested that the storm might no longer have a closed center of circulation, so Arlene is likely to be declassified as a tropical cyclone on Friday, although winds at some distance from the core may still be above tropical storm strength. Update: NHC issued its final advisory on dissipating Arlene at 11 am EDT Friday.

Arlene’s circulation was evident days ago as a large non-tropical gyre drifting across the remote Eastern Atlantic, including a small center with some eye-like characteristics. Sea surface temperatures beneath the circulation were only about 20°C (68°F), far below the standard minimum of 26°C (79°F) for tropical development. However, the upper atmosphere was cold enough to support the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and the broad upward motion gradually enabled the system to develop a warm core, thus triggering the shift from subtropical to tropical status. Arlene began to move northwest and west on Thursday as the circulation was gradually captured by an approaching midlatitude trough.

How unusual is Arlene?

Arlene is a rarity, as Jeff Masters noted in a post on Wednesday. Getting a tropical or subtropical depression in the Atlantic in April is about a once-per-decade event, and a tropical storm in April is even more unusual. The NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks website shows that only four April tropical or subtropical depressions are known to have formed in in the Atlantic prior to Arlene, although many such systems would have gone undetected prior to the advent of routine satellite monitoring in the 1970s. Only two of the four April systems on record became named tropical storms: Arlene (2017) and Tropical Storm Ana (2003). An unnamed April subtropical storm in 1992 also achieved tropical storm-force winds, and two other April tropical depressions formed in 1981 and 1973.

Arlene is also the northernmost of the few tropical storms that have developed this early in any season on record, as reported by Tropical activity hits a climatological minimum in the North Atlantic during late winter and early spring, as sea surface temperatures reach their lowest points of the year and strong wind shear often prevails. The only tropical cyclones on record in the Atlantic that made it beyond depression strength during February and March are a system on February 2-3, 1952, that moved across South Florida as a tropical storm, and an unnamed hurricane that struck the U.S. Virgin Islands at Category 2 strength on March 6-9, 1908. Because Ana and Arlene both followed a gap of more than six weeks between tropical-storm-strength systems, one might consider them roughly tied as the earliest tropical storms on record, although most records are oriented toward calendar years rather than the climatology of the hurricane season itself.

CLICK HERE for the website for Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image

Last edited by Marty; 5 hours ago.