Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 27, 2017
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Area wind information
Belize NMS Forecast
6:00 AM in Belize, June 27, 2017
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.
Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:
USA National Weather Service Forecast
June 27, 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Some development of this
system is then possible until the weekend when environmental
conditions are forecast to be less favorable for further
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave extends its axis over Africa from 20N15W to
11N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave was found using
satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly
north of 14N between 13W-18W.
A tropical wave extends its axis from 10N30W to 02N30W, moving
westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a moist environment,
however Saharan dry air and dust is intruding some around the
northern segment of the wave. Isolated showers are observed within
150 nm west of the wave's axis mostly along 06N.
A tropical wave extends over the central Atlantic with axis from
12N52W to 04N54W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is in an
area of moderate moisture and a diffluent flow aloft. These
features are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north
of 08N between 50W-58W.
A tropical wave is over the central-west Caribbean with axis from
19N76W to 11N76W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a
region of limited moisture at low to mid-levels. Isolated showers
are north of 16N between 71W-77W.
A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America
with axis from 21N88W to 10N88W, moving westward at about 10-15
kt. The southern portion of the wave is very near to the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough. The wave marks the leading edge of deep
tropical moisture that trails the wave east to near 89W. Isolated
moderate convection are observed across portions of Central
America between 88W-92W.
...The Caribbean Sea...
The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already
discussed in the section above. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the wave over the central
Caribbean mainly south of 17N. These winds are expected to
increase to near gale across the Gulf of Venezuela by tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the
Windward Passage, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba mostly related to the
tropical wave. Another tropical wave currently over the central
tropical Atlantic is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on
Tuesday night, and reach the central Caribbean late on Wednesday.
This wave will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may contain gusty winds.
Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook
48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Infrared Satellite in Belize City
Remaining quiet across the AtlanticAtlantic Basin remains quiet
Strong wind shear created by regions of northwesterly upper-level wind flow deep into the tropical Atlantic along with a large region of dry, dusty Saharan air will inhibit tropical development across the Atlantic Basin for this week and probably through the upcoming weekend.
120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development
Tropical Development Is Not Expected Across The Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 26, 2017
Even though tropical development is not expected throughout this week across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, there are still some areas to at least mention and keep an eye on.
The first area to take a look at is the Bay of Campeche where we saw an increase in thunderstorm activity there yesterday. The weather features that were causing the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is a upper level low pressure system that is located to the north and a surface trough of low pressure that is located over the Bay of Campeche. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the shower and thunderstorm activity has died down and it appears this entire weather feature will gradually push westward into eastern Mexico over the next couple of days. In addition, the environmental conditions in the Bay of Campeche are expected to become unfavorable by Tuesday. So, bottom line is that I am not expecting any sort of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week.
The second area to check out is a tropical wave that is located over the central Atlantic between 45 and 50 West Longitude. There is a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave due to dry, stable air surrounding this wave. The reason why I am mentioning this tropical wave is this is the wave that the Canadian model is forecasting to become a tropical cyclone later this week near the northern Lesser Antilles. This is the only model forecasting this and I do not expect to see tropical development from this tropical wave. The reason why is because the environmental conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable for development throughout this week, especially west of 55 West Longitude where wind shear values increase to 30 to 50 knots.
I also wanted to address the GFS model guidance’s insistence over the last couple of days of forecasting tropical development from a couple of tropical waves between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles – the first one early next week and the second one during the week of July 10th. I am more skeptical of the tropical development forecast for early next week than I am for the one during the week of July 10th. The reason why is because we are now in a downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation and it is forecast to remain this way across the Atlantic through at least the first half of next week. This downward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will promote less storminess across the Atlantic Basin and lead to an overall unfavorable environment for tropical development for at least the next week to 10 days. So, in my opinion, the GFS model does not make sense with its tropical development forecast for early next week. With that said, it will be watched for just in case the GFS model is seeing something that I’m not.
A new upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to gradually move into the Atlantic Basin after July 10th. So, the forecast of tropical development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa by the GFS model during the week of July 10th is somewhat possible. Lending some credence to this is the European model which is hinting at a strong tropical disturbance to move off of the coast of Africa around July 6th. With that said, I do think that the GFS model guidance may be too quick with its forecast of tropical development and feel that the chances for tropical development will begin to increase between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa starting between July 15th and July 20th as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation moves into the Atlantic Basin.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued between 9 and 11 am EDT/8 and 10 am CDT Wednesday Morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Tuesday.
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Jeff Masters, Category 6
June 26, 2017
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