Rob Lightbown on May 6, 2011, 2:54 pm
There are a few factors that may come together to really cause us to watch the Caribbean later next week.
The first is that the Madden Julian Oscillation will be in a phase to create upward motion in the Caribbean next week.
Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast
The second is that part of a large upper level low pressure system off of the New England coast next week may lift out causing a trough split and an area of lighter wind shear over the Caribbean.
The third is that ocean temperatures are plenty warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation.
Combine these factors together and I think itís not out of the question to see some really organized convection over the Caribbean next week which may try to develop into some sort of tropical system. The latest GFS model run is starting to hint at this with the formation of an area of low pressure around Thursday or Friday of next week over the east-central Caribbean to the south of Puerto Rico. Last nightís European model didnít show anything of note; so it will be interesting to see if the European model starts to follow the GFS model or vice-versa.
GFS Model Forecast For Next Friday (May 13):
So, this is something that will be watched for closely over the next several days and I will keep you all updated on the latest.