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Letís Keep An Eye On The Caribbean Later Next Week #407176
05/07/11 08:49 AM
05/07/11 08:49 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 65,832
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Rob Lightbown on May 6, 2011, 2:54 pm

There are a few factors that may come together to really cause us to watch the Caribbean later next week.

The first is that the Madden Julian Oscillation will be in a phase to create upward motion in the Caribbean next week.

Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast

The second is that part of a large upper level low pressure system off of the New England coast next week may lift out causing a trough split and an area of lighter wind shear over the Caribbean.

The third is that ocean temperatures are plenty warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation.

Combine these factors together and I think itís not out of the question to see some really organized convection over the Caribbean next week which may try to develop into some sort of tropical system. The latest GFS model run is starting to hint at this with the formation of an area of low pressure around Thursday or Friday of next week over the east-central Caribbean to the south of Puerto Rico. Last nightís European model didnít show anything of note; so it will be interesting to see if the European model starts to follow the GFS model or vice-versa.

GFS Model Forecast For Next Friday (May 13):

So, this is something that will be watched for closely over the next several days and I will keep you all updated on the latest.


Re: Letís Keep An Eye On The Caribbean Later Next Week [Re: Marty] #407185
05/07/11 09:38 AM
05/07/11 09:38 AM

C
C2C
Unregistered
C2C
C
Good analysis. Thanks for sharing.

Re: Letís Keep An Eye On The Caribbean Later Next Week [Re: Marty] #407200
05/07/11 09:59 AM
05/07/11 09:59 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 12,781
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
OK I'll clean out the rain gutters and hook up the cistern again this week, but if doesn't rain this time I want those virgins back!


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Re: Letís Keep An Eye On The Caribbean Later Next Week [Re: Marty] #407204
05/07/11 10:22 AM
05/07/11 10:22 AM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,890
San Pedro Town, Ambergris Caye...
Amanda Syme Offline

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Amanda Syme  Offline
Fingers crossed for some rain.



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