Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather
I wanted to post something before going into the weekend regarding my continuing belief that the combination of a upward motion pulse in the Madden Julian Oscillation and a departing large trough of low pressure may cause lowering barometric pressures, a decrease in vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity in the western half of the Caribbean. This simply all means that I continue to believe that tropical development is possible in the western Caribbean in a 8 day window surrounding Memorial Day weekend.
So, this will be something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming days and I will keep you all updated.
Forecast Upper-Air Pattern Evolution During The Week Of May 23rd:
Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast Evolution Over The Next Few Weeks: