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#407720 - 05/13/11 04:51 PM Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1?  
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 53,986
Marty Offline
Marty  Offline

Combination Of A Departing Trough & MJO Upward Motion Pulse May Lead To Tropical Development In The Western Caribbean Between May 24 & June 1

Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather

I wanted to post something before going into the weekend regarding my continuing belief that the combination of a upward motion pulse in the Madden Julian Oscillation and a departing large trough of low pressure may cause lowering barometric pressures, a decrease in vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures and increased thunderstorm activity in the western half of the Caribbean. This simply all means that I continue to believe that tropical development is possible in the western Caribbean in a 8 day window surrounding Memorial Day weekend.

So, this will be something I will be keeping an eye on over the coming days and I will keep you all updated.

Forecast Upper-Air Pattern Evolution During The Week Of May 23rd:

Madden Julian Oscillation Forecast Evolution Over The Next Few Weeks:


#407722 - 05/13/11 04:54 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,070
belizeonthebeach Offline
belizeonthebeach  Offline
What a crock. I hope.

#407723 - 05/13/11 04:57 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: belizeonthebeach]  
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
SP Daily Offline
.
SP Daily  Offline
Originally Posted by belizeonthebeach
What a crock. I hope.

Yeah..what does Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather know?

#407724 - 05/13/11 05:06 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,334
Katie Valk Offline
Katie Valk  Offline
Remember Arthur struck May 31

Last edited by Katie Valk; 05/13/11 07:12 PM.

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#407726 - 05/13/11 05:08 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,858
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
No I don't remember an Arthur??
How long ago was that?
Looked it up 2008 Southern Belize got it, probably why I don't remember.

Last edited by elbert; 05/13/11 05:10 PM.

The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
#407727 - 05/13/11 05:12 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,858
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
20 inches or so of rain could really replenish my well.


The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
#407729 - 05/13/11 05:20 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,637
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
That would be sweet.

#407762 - 05/14/11 07:23 AM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 5,680
Diane Campbell Offline
.
Diane Campbell  Offline
It takes a very bold forecaster to predict a storm this far in advance ...... that being said, it's a good reminder to clean the gutters, check the boat-bilge and service the gene. All stuff we need to do anyway but sometimes forget.

#408473 - 05/22/11 06:39 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,858
elbert Offline
elbert  Offline
Well today is the 22nd and my week is booked heavy,I could make some money,pay some bills and make a lot of people happy... Sooooo what could Murphy do here?
I would like to get an update!
I need something to worry about besides the end of the world and transcontinental tsunamis.
How about it Rob whats it going to be?


The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/
#408474 - 05/22/11 07:32 PM Re: Tropical Development Between May 24 & June 1? [Re: Marty]  
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,637
Amanda Syme Offline
Amanda Syme  Offline
Do not invoke the wrath of the Gods Elbert!

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