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Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Tropical Storm Harvey to pass over Belize on Saturday

The weather system that rose from the Eastern Caribbean now has a name and it's Tropical Storm Harvey. Harvey's strength is about forty-five miles per hour and is expected to strengthen tonight, before landfall on Saturday. According to Dennis Gonguez, the Chief Met Officer, the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has met this morning and a Tropical Storm warning has been issued for the coast of Belize.

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorological Officer

"We met this morning at ten o'clock and we decided that we'd issue a tropical storm warning for the entire coast of Belize and it translates into upgrading our warnings for the national emergency warning system to a red two phase for our national warning system. Last night the active tropical wave that was approaching the western Caribbean developed into a tropical depression number eight-that occurred around nine p.m. last night and since then, things have evolved, the system has become better organized and midday today it upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey. Since then it has further intensified and now the wind speeds have increased to forty-five miles per hour. The forecast is for further strengthening. For landfall; landfall is expected around mid-afternoon tomorrow and it looks like we might have a sixty miles per hour tropical storm on our hands."

Jose Sanchez

Dennis Gonguez

"Harvey; what's the main area of concern?"

Dennis Gonguez

"Well the present track forecast puts it in the pretty much in the path of which Richard did last year. We are looking at somewhere midway between Belize City and Dangriga town. Historically, track forecast have been doing better than our intensity forecast-we have difficulty forecasting intensities, strengthening and weakening of sytems, but we have fairly good confidence in the track forecast."

Jose Sanchez

"In terms of intensity and circumference, how would you classify Harvey?"

Dennis Gonguez

"It's a small system and we start to see effects of it shortly after midnight towards dawn. We should start to see effects on the extreme outer waters, offshore. As I said landfall will be around three p.m. somewhere around there tomorrow afternoon."

Jose Sanchez

"How long would you estimate we will be feeling the impact of it?"

Dennis Gonguez

"Well it's moving at about twelve miles per hour, so I'm looking at by midday Sunday it will be well out of our area. We're looking at about three to five inches of rainfall associated with this system so some places that could translate into localized flooding over some areas. So even some areas where it is mountainous in the southern part of the country we could see localized amounts of up to seven inches of rain. This system has the potential of further strengthening. It is moving over warm waters-conditions are favorable for some strengthening-so we again we looking at possibly a sixty to sixty-five miles per hour tropical storm and we need to be aware that it can be a menace to us."

Channel 5


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Marty Offline OP
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NEMO's machinery activated and country on alert

At six o'clock this evening Tropical Storm Harvey, the first weather system expected to make landfall in Belize since the start of the 2011 Hurricane Season, was positioned two hundred and fifty-five miles east, southeast of Dangriga. The tropical storm is moving at a speed of ten miles per hour in a west, northwesterly direction with wind speeds of up to fifty miles per hour. It is expected that Tropical Storm Harvey will bring along with it some three to five inches of rainfall. Seafarers are advised not to travel to the cayes and vessels should seek safe harbor. Meanwhile people living in flood prone areas are encouraged to make final preparations to seek higher ground. While shelters have not been officially declared open NEMO is currently making final preparations, if necessary, to do so in villages along the Old Northern Highway, Belize City and Gales Point as well as in the Cayo and Stann Creek districts. Stay tuned for more on the tropical weather update.

Channel 5


Joined: May 2011
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I just checked and saw that the models dont seem to be predicting hurricane wind speed values at all

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085213.shtml?hwindloop?#contents


only tropical storm values, and even then probabilties of those winds are predicted to be in the 5 to 10% range. Hope my cisterns get a drink.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085213.shtml?tswindloop?#contents

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Marty Offline OP
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might pick up close to hurricane cat 1 winds before landfall.....

WS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...HARVEY MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

LOCATION...16.8N 87.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND BELIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.


Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Current satellite view with map overlay. Marker at San Pedro


CLICK HERE for larger version


Joined: Oct 2001
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Waves inside reef are starting to kick up.
Am beginning to believe that we will have some strong weather by mid-day.

Joined: Oct 1999
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Marty Offline OP
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Water vapor loop, check the time, lower right
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

I'd put it at about 80 miles due East of Mango Creek right now and traveling a tad North of due West at 10-12. The conditions seems right for it to intensify, but it is already making contact with land which will tend to have a limiting effect.

Joined: Mar 2009
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Try this link from CIMSS, you can sea the development of Harvey and how he moves around very clearly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_08L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

It needs a while to load, but its worth to wait, because the center of the image is always the center of the storm.


Joined: Oct 2001
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Last report is that the winds are lower - only 50 MPH and that level of winds only extend out 5 miles from the center.

TACA just announced that their flights for today are cancelled til tomorrow.

Joined: May 2000
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Thanks for posting Cayeman - it didn't take me any time to load - it ran the whole loop immediately.


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