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Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 #417337
09/29/11 07:53 AM
09/29/11 07:53 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 73,993
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP

The western Caribbean will need to be monitored very closely starting around October 10 as there is expected to be a fairly strong upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation located in the Caribbean right around October 13. It is worthy to note that the GFS model is no longer pushing back the date of tropical cyclone development and now seems to be pointing to between October 10 and October 13 that development may occur. Additionally, the European model is hinting that a broad area of low pressure will form in the southwestern Caribbean around October 8.

So, while it appears that the Caribbean will be quiet for the next week to 10 days, trouble may be brewing once we get into Columbus Day weekend and beyond.

Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty] #417376
09/29/11 10:59 AM
09/29/11 10:59 AM
Joined: May 2000
Posts: 6,971
San Pedro Town, Ambergris Caye...
Amanda Syme Offline

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Amanda Syme  Offline
I read similar reports on other weather forecasting sites too. So let's be prepared folks.

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty] #417378
09/29/11 11:26 AM
09/29/11 11:26 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,221
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
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Diane Campbell  Offline
Time for the anti-hurricane dances to start.

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty] #417403
09/29/11 04:21 PM
09/29/11 04:21 PM
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,461
Belize City
K
Katie Valk Offline

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Katie Valk  Offline
K
Say it ain't so.


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Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty] #417407
09/29/11 05:59 PM
09/29/11 05:59 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,221
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
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Diane Campbell  Offline
Rob Lightbown is no dummy but he is also more speculative in his commentary than say, Steve Masters.

I really hate the SW Caribbean October thingys, but we do tend to survive them.

Here's to strong plywood, long nails and good friends.

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Diane Campbell] #417409
09/29/11 06:42 PM
09/29/11 06:42 PM
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
S
SP Daily Offline
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SP Daily  Offline
S
Start watching the buildup of weather down south towards Panama. That can be treacherous as it arrives quickly with little time to evacuate the cayes.

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: SP Daily] #417415
09/29/11 08:26 PM
09/29/11 08:26 PM
Joined: Sep 2002
Posts: 10,850
Beautiful San Marcos, Texas
E
Ernie B Offline
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Ernie B  Offline
E
We, in Texas, are praying for a cain


Gun Control is Hitting Your Target.
Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: SP Daily] #417416
09/29/11 09:10 PM
09/29/11 09:10 PM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,221
San Pedro AC Belize
Diane Campbell Offline
.
Diane Campbell  Offline
Originally Posted by SP Daily
Start watching the buildup of weather down south towards Panama. That can be treacherous as it arrives quickly with little time to evacuate the cayes.


understood - we're watching

Re: Watch Western Caribbean after Oct. 10 [Re: Marty] #417424
09/30/11 06:51 AM
09/30/11 06:51 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13,175
San Pedro Belize
elbert Offline
.
elbert  Offline
Amazing forecast of a hurricane hitting that hasn't even been born yet.
I'm gona hold off boarding up the windows for a while.


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