The western Caribbean will need to be monitored very closely starting around October 10 as there is expected to be a fairly strong upward motion of the Madden Julian Oscillation located in the Caribbean right around October 13. It is worthy to note that the GFS model is no longer pushing back the date of tropical cyclone development and now seems to be pointing to between October 10 and October 13 that development may occur. Additionally, the European model is hinting that a broad area of low pressure will form in the southwestern Caribbean around October 8.
So, while it appears that the Caribbean will be quiet for the next week to 10 days, trouble may be brewing once we get into Columbus Day weekend and beyond.
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services