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SP Daily #419986 10/26/11 10:44 PM
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This is not exactly a post mortem, as she is still quite alive and kicking but here is what gave me such a sense of relief about AC's fate earlier today...

When I posted this earlier

Quote
That hole in Rina's backside (errrr..sorry) is a problem for any self respecting hurricane...


I was referring to the "gap" or inclusion that reflects the recent, and significant, drop in wind speeds along the south storm wall as seen in the graphic below. The data for the graph was developed from dropsonde data collected during hurricane hunter flights over the past two days.

[Linked Image]



In earlier discussions two NHC meterologists had brought up the possibilty that the 'cane would not recognise its full potential. Their predictiuon, which seems to have been realised, was that the storm's developement could be disrupted as a result of it coming into contact with "shearing" winds from a strong upper level high pressure system (ridge). That ridge had been had been dominating the Yucatan region for a week or more (remember those really consistent north winds all week?). Although the ridge was beginning to break up its upper level wind components could have an effect on Rina. Apprently those dry, warm, high speed winds aloft did indeed cut the tops off of and collapse Rina's high cold clouds on her southern flank. With that area of her upper level "thermal engine" crippled the wind speeds in the southern area of the storm became much slower than the other edges of the storm.

In order for the storm to really shift gears into a higher category those winds need to be in sync and working together. This wind speed differential precluded the 'cane from really spinning up its gyro even though it had plenty of fuel in the form of really warm water. Basically Rina pulled a hamstring just as she was hitting her stride.

Frankly I'm pretty damned impressed with the two meteorolgists who pulled all the information together and recognised this scenario as a distinct possibilty. Not to mention a big shout out to the Hurricane Hunters...

SP Daily #419988 10/27/11 12:28 AM
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,436
C
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C
Agreed there are the main stream pro's we always need, but at local levels we need our community to kick in and pass the word on, in a professional manner. What an exceptional job they did. Without T.V. as it eliminated day before yesterday, and no radio, trusting the storm would go north, you never know, things can change as in the past.We found the messageboard our best link to what was going on


LONELY PLANET SAYS TOURIST LOVE OUR ART. BEST PRICES ON ART.
SP Daily #419991 10/27/11 06:33 AM
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Thanks Cooper. much appreciate the love.I enjoy serving folks in whatever capacity I am able.

and you nailed it i think Bear.

SP Daily #419992 10/27/11 06:47 AM
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[Linked Image]

HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY...

RINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING
WITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME
WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 65 KT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...
AND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN
THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 87.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RINA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

RINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREA AT ABOUT 325/5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY
LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 86.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.0N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 21.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.9N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 21.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 21.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

SP Daily #419993 10/27/11 07:11 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
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Accuweather

Oct 27, 2011 5:13 AM

Hurricane Rina Nearing Yucatan Peninsula

Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 18.9° N, 87.0° W with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, gusting to 90 mph

Rina remains a relatively small and weakening hurricane, but still poses dangers to the Yucatan Peninsula where it will slam onshore later today.

Hurricane Rina will make landfall along northeast Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today then it will head north along the coast tonight into tomorrow morning, then slowly shift away to the northeast and east later Friday into Saturday. There will be damaging winds and flooding rains along the northeast Yucatan coast today and tonight then they should taper off later Friday. A storm surge of 2-4 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall. The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina. This has caused the winds to drop to 65 knots and it will probably continue weaken to a tropical storm by midday or early afternoon. Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center heads toward western Cuba and the midlevel feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.

We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the central Caribbean. Once this feature reaches the western or southwest Caribbean, conditions may become more favorable for development.

One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 44 west, south of 20 north, is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.


SP Daily #419994 10/27/11 07:14 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
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Rina Is Falling Apart As It Approaches The Yucatan Peninsula
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 27, 2011, 5:41 am

Hurricane Rina:

Rina has been extremely fickle over the past 24 hours. After weakening rapidly from a 110 mph borderline Category 2/Category 3 hurricane to a 85 mph Category 1 hurricane yesterday, it tried to make a comeback last evening, however, the latest satellite imagery and reconnaissance reports indicate that Rina is becoming very ragged and some more weakening has occurred according to reconnaissance reports. It appears that Rina is barely a hurricane this morning and some more weakening is likely as the storm encounters increasing wind shear and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula; in fact, it appears that Cancun and Cozumel probably will not even experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds are likely in both places today through tonight.

Rina is tracking northwestward at a forward speed of 6 mph this morning and it appears that since Rina is much weaker than previously expected, it will weaken rapidly this weekend and the end result will be quite similar to Hurricane Paula from last year where it weakened and dissipated near Cuba and never regenerated. It is looking more and more likely that south Florida will escape any effects from Rina, however, a frontal system crossing the Florida Peninsula will cause widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the Florida Peninsula from Friday afternoon through Friday night.

It should be mentioned that the European model performed extremely well with the forecast of Rina falling apart as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and the latest European model forecast indicates that Rina will track inland into the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula as it weakens tonight into Friday and then be shunted back to the east-southeast into the northwestern Caribbean by Saturday where it sit right into the middle part of next week. In fact, the European model is forecasting some regeneration of Rina by about Wednesday as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula once again. If this happens, then we may be tracking what is left of Rina for several more days.

Rina Information



Cooper #419997 10/27/11 07:55 AM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,520
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Originally Posted by Cooper
Agreed there are the main stream pro's we always need, at local levels we need our community to kick in and pass the word on, in a professional manner. What an exceptional job they did. Without T.V. as it eliminated day before yesterday, and no radio, trusting the storm would go north, you never know, things can change as in the past. We found the messageboard our best link to what was going on


Hear hear Cooper [Linked Image]
Marty et al, are abfab and there is nothing like the local grapevine of useable information that a good bulletin board provides.

As far as the pros go it speaks volumes to the character of the men and women who voluntarily, with good cheer even, climb into that tiny plane and fly into the middle of something that simply by its nature "wants" to kill them. I also find it astonishing that people, through computer models, experience, and intuition can make sense of and distill the millions of data points collected at risk of life and limb that become the basis for much of the practical information provided here on the board.

[Linked Image] [Linked Image]

SP Daily #420016 10/27/11 09:22 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
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there are some fantastic documentaries about the hurricane hunters. i LOVE watching them when they go thru the eyeball and hit the CLEAR BLUE SKY in the middle. takes your breath away.... it's often a bit harrowing getting thru. they have to try this path, then another path. then they fly those big planes around in a small eye. hard to stay in it sometimes. takes some weird flight angles.

amazing work they do. stuff flying around everywhere inside the plane when they go thru the wall sometimes. like being on an ocean ship in a big storm

frightening

SP Daily #420023 10/27/11 10:22 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
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Read Jeff Master's account if flying into the eye of Hurricane Hugo - you can find it on the Weather Underground site - listed below his blog.
It is an astonishing and very scary tale!

http://www.wunderground.com/resources/education/hugo1.asp

SP Daily #420037 10/27/11 01:32 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
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[Linked Image]

TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...RINA MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 87.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESO

------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

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