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SP Daily #419664 10/24/11 01:47 PM
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Rina Has Become A Hurricane & Will Likely Become A Major Hurricane Sometime On Tuesday

Rob Lightbown on October 24, 2011, 2:30 pm

Hurricane Rina: Very quick afternoon update to let you all know that Rina has and still is rapidly strengthening. Reconnaissance aircraft found that it is now a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane. Additionally, visible satellite imagery clearly shows an eye trying to form this afternoon.

Other than that, I have no other changes to my forecast thinking from this morning. I still think that Rina will impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, on Thursday night into Friday; except now, I think Rina will be a lot stronger and those of you in Cancun and Cozumel should be prepared for a Category 3 hurricane. After that I am forecasting that Rina will turn to the northeast and potentially impact the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday as a Category 1 or possibly a low end Category 2 hurricane. The northwestern Bahamas may also be affected by a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday before it becomes extra-tropical next Monday.

All interests across the western Caribbean, including those of you in Belize, Cancun, Cozumel, western Cuba, should monitor the progress of this storm very closely. Additionally, everyone in the Florida Keys and south Florida should closely monitor the progress of Rina over the next few days.


SP Daily #419665 10/24/11 01:56 PM
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NAVY latest track and wind/time data



Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph... 120 km/h...with higher gusts. Rina is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and Rina is forecast to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday.




Rina grew into a Category 1 hurricane today and is expected to become stronger as it moves toward resorts on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Rina's top winds are now 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour, up from 40 mph earlier today, according to a center advisory at about 2 p.m. New York time. The system is the sixth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic storm season.

"Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and Rina is forecast to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday," the center said. "Interests in Belize, the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands should monitor the progress of Rina."

Rina is forecast to approach Cancun by week's end and then possibly curve east toward Cuba, the center's tracking maps show. The system is about 360 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, moving northwest at 5 mph.

A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph, capable of snapping trees, blowing down poorly built homes and creating a "high risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets due to flying and falling debris," the center said.

Reconnaissance Flight

A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance airplane flew into the storm today and discovered it had grown rapidly in strength, the center said. Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extend 15 miles from its core and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more reach out 115 miles.


SP Daily #419666 10/24/11 01:59 PM
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We'll be watching and thinking of all of you there in Belize......

Hold onto your coconuts!...Oh my, did I say that outloud?


My friends call me Judyann

www.blackorchidrestaurant.com
SP Daily #419668 10/24/11 02:25 PM
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Marty #419675 10/24/11 02:51 PM
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Outstanding set of links for tropical storms in Belize! I will be arriving Thursday morning just in time for the fun. I normally deal with wildfires in Nevada, so this will be a new experience.

Jim

NVJims #419677 10/24/11 02:56 PM
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Maybe you will.........


_ _ _ _ _ _ _________________ _ _ _ _ _ _
But then what do I know, I am but a mere caveman
NVJims #419679 10/24/11 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by NVJims
Outstanding set of links for tropical storms in Belize! I will be arriving Thursday morning just in time for the fun. I normally deal with wildfires in Nevada, so this will be a new experience.

Jim


We have had our share of wildfires in Texas, about 40,000 acres that got pretty close to my casa. 1 1/2 miles to be exact.

We fly from Dallas on Saturday to Belize, could make for a bumpy flight frown

SP Daily #419680 10/24/11 03:50 PM
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED
ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST
BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.

RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE
DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT
REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...
SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE
SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF
THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES
BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

SP Daily #419681 10/24/11 04:07 PM
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Jeff Masters

Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Rina. An intense thunderstorm with a top that reaches into the stratosphere is visible on the southwest side of the eye. These "hot towers" are commonly seen in hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification.

Rina in historical context
Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours. Rina's formation brings this year's tally of hurricanes to six, which is average for an Atlantic hurricane season. The number of named storms this season is now seventeen, making it the 7th busiest Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005, 1933, 1995, 1887, 2010, and 1969 had more named storms. However, 2011 has had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. Only 35% of this year's named storms have made it to hurricane strength, and normally 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for this very unusual occurrence.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

SP Daily #419682 10/24/11 04:17 PM
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Quote from:
HurricaneTrack.com
You never like to see this with any hurricane, much less one tucked in to the NW Caribbean Sea in late October: "GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA."

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