Crown Weather Services
Our Very Early Thoughts On The 2012 Hurricane Season. Additionally, Your Continuing Generosity To Help Us Pay The Bills Would Be Greatly Appreciated!!
We would like to thank everybody that has donated so far, it is appreciated so very much!! With that said, we are still significantly behind in paying the bills and your help would be greatly appreciated!! More on that later.
I wanted to give everybody some early preliminary thoughts I have regarding the 2012 Hurricane Season, which starts, unbelievably in a little more than two months.
First off, as far as I can determine, we are out of the La Nina phase of the ENSO and are in neutral conditions. I think for the upcoming Hurricane Season, we will be on the warm side of neutral or transitioning into a weak El Nino. Additionally, the eastern Atlantic is colder in terms of ocean water temperatures compared to recent years. This, I think, means that long tracked storms will be very far and few between and our development will be in-close, mainly west of 55 and 60 West Longitude.
Looking at the weather pattern from this winter and into the spring, there are quite a few years that pop out at me for analog years. They are 1910, 1921, 1946, 1954, 1976, 1979 and 2002.
One relatively big thing that all of these years have in common are low overall numbers for storms and hurricanes, but more significant impact on land. Some examples include: Hurricane #5 impacting just south of Tampa in 1910, the Tampa hurricane of 1921, a hurricane into the west coast of Florida in 1946, Hurricanes Carol and Edna into New England in 1954 and Hurricane Hazel into southeastern North Carolina in 1954, Hurricane Belle impacting New England in 1976, Hurricanes David and Frederic in 1979 and finally Isidore and Lili in the Gulf of Mexico in 2002. You can look at each of these years by clicking the years in the previous paragraph.
So, I think both the US East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico are at risk this year. Additionally, the fact that many of these years had significant hurricanes impacting the Tampa area makes me kind of nervous. Additionally, the northern and western Caribbean may be at risk this year from any storms developing in-close (within 250-300 miles of the Lesser and Greater Antilles).
Finally, I think next winter (2012-13) has the potential to feature a cold El Nino meaning that there will be a ridge in the western United States and a trough of low pressure in the eastern United States. This potentially could mean a snowier and colder than average winter east of the Rocky Mountains and especially east of the Mississippi River.
As I mentioned in the beginning of this e-mail, we are hurting badly for funds and your help would be greatly appreciated. Please consider giving Crown Weather Services a donation, no matter how big or small, every donation helps.
We completely understand that the financial situation is very tough for many of you out there; We Are No Exception as we are having a very tough time trying to pay the bills.
We are currently running between $200 and $400 behind in funds and this is putting us way behind in paying the bills. Any help you can provide would be extremely appreciated!!
If you would like to help us out, just go to http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=6892.
On behalf of Crown Weather Services, we would like to not only thank all of you who support us. We really appreciate it and could not continue with your patronage and generous help.