Belize Weather Forecast: May 20, 2012

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Persistent trof of low pressure maintains moist and unstable conditions over our area.
24-hour forecast: Cloudy with sunny breaks today and mostly cloudy tonight. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur mainly along the coast this morning.. Then spread inland this afternoon.
Winds: North - northeast 5 - 15 knots becoming northwest tonight.
Sea state: Winds: N-NE 5-15kts.; seas: Light chop - choppy; waves: 2-4 ft.; some showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south. Outlook: Monday night:- winds: N-NW 5-15 kts.; seas: Light chop - choppy.; waves: 2-4 ft.; a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south.
Sea Surface Temp (ºF): 82
Outlook: For Monday and Monday night is for continuing mostly cloudy skies with some showers and isolated thunderstorms developing.

WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: May 14 – May 21, 2012

Synopsis: Model projections showing a low developing just offshore the coast of Belize by Thursday of this week. This feature will favor showers and thunderstorms increasing especially on Thursday through Monday. The onset of the rainy season could be early for some regions of Belize this year.

A quasi-stationary front over the Louisiana Gulf Coast to the central Gulf of Mexico has an induced surface trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. These features together with a divergent SW’ly airstream from the Pacific aloft, have been generating outbreaks of thunderstorms and showers over Campeche, El Peten and western and southern Belize over the past 24-36 hours.

Analysis of the upper level weather charts show that the winter-time westerlies have now become disrupted over the subtropics, which is indicating a return to a summer pattern and the gradual onset of the 2012 rainy season. The GFS model projections of stability indices, surface pressure pattern and low level winds for the next five to seven days points to an increase in moisture and instability in the NW Caribbean and over northern Central America, as a surface low pressure system tries to become organized this week, and evolves into the first weak disturbance for the season just over and offshore Belize. The low will remain stationary just offshore central Belize on Thursday, and will then begin to track NNE into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the coming weekend. Cloudy and unsettled weather will therefore persist over Belize during most of this week, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more persistent on Thursday through Monday of next week. This could mark the beginning of the rainy season for Belize. However, it is likely that the onset of the rains will be gradual in most places as we move towards June, but yes, the transition to a rainy season airflow pattern is almost completed as we should see more rainy days over the next seven to ten days.

CLICK HERE for the full Belize Weekend Weather Report

Tropical Weather Outlook: The 2011 hurricane season ended on Nov. 30th; unless any tropical cyclone forms, there will be no further reports until June 2012.

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